Free NBA Pick: Celtics vs. Raptors Odds
Looking for Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Celtics taking on the Raptors on November 11th at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. This free NBA basketball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Celtics Raptors matchup.
2026 NBA Handicapping – Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors
Celtics -7.5 | Raptors +7.5Here’s why I’m backing Boston ATS in my Celtics Raptors free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Celtics vs. Raptors Gameday
Boston travels to Toronto on November 11th for an NBA matchup at Scotiabank Arena. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00 ET, with both teams using this match as a litmus test of sorts.
The Celtics are rolling along, relying on their consistency, while the Raptors are still awaiting the return of Kawhi Leonard and for their core to get healthy.
Per John Schuhmann: The Raptors will play eight of their next 10 games at home, but after they host Memphis on Monday, they’ll play five of their next six against the Celtics, Sixers, Knicks (x 2) and Pistons. They went 3-13 against that group last season, with two of those three wins coming against Philly.
In fact, in the last match, Leonard, Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and Collin Murray-Boyles were all out, which represents four of their five best players. While the Thunder have shown that a team can still muster wins while missing key cogs, the Raptors aren’t as deep.
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Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors Odds & Previous Games
In history, the teams have met 120 times, with the Celtics owning the 77-43 edge. Last year, the Celtics swept the four-game season series.
Entering this match, the Celtics are completing a back-to-back set, having easily taken care of the 76ers 123-101 on Tuesday.
Toronto has the rest advantage, having last played the Grizzlies on Monday, but was severely short-handed.
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Celtics Stats
Boston ranked second offensively (120.1), fourth defensively (111.8), and fourth in net rating (+8.3) while running a pace of 95.46, which ranked 30th in the association.
The East’s second-place Celtics averaged 24.7 assists (27th) and 46.4 rebounds (third). Boston scored 114.9 points per game while its opponents averaged 107.1 points.
Per John Schuhmann: The Celtics shoot a lot of 3s, but their opponents shoot more. Boston opponents have taken 51.2% of their shots from 3-point range, which would be the highest opponent rate in the 48 years of the 3-point line by a wide margin. Only 47% of their opponents’ 3-point attempts (the league’s eighth lowest rate) have been wide open, but they’re probably getting a little lucky, with opponents shooting just 32.7% (second lowest) on those wide-open 3s.
Team leaders* in the key categories were Jaylen Brown for scoring (28.7 points), Neemias Queta for rebounds (8.4), while Derrick White was tops in assists (5.4), blocks (1.3), and steals (1.1).
Seven Celtics shot above league average from the perimeter while the team averaged 36.7% from deep.
Raptors Stats
Toronto ranked tied for 14th offensively (115.0) and were fifth defensively (112.1) while holding the 11th-best net rating (+2.9) and ranking 21st in pace (99.22).
The East’s 2025/26 fifth seed averaged 114.6 points per game while its opponents averaged 111.8 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Toronto averaged 29.5 (third) and 42.1 (24th), respectively.
Toronto’s team leaders were Brandon Ingram for scoring (21.5 points), Immanuel Quickley for assists (5.9), Scottie Barnes for rebounds (7.5), steals (1.4), and blocks (1.5).
As for the perimeter, Toronto shot 35.4% from deep, while six* players shot above the league average.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
Celtics vs. Raptors Key Matchup
Jayson Tatum is the primary scoring option and frequently the top playmaker on the squad.
He is averaging 26.5 points, 7.4 assists, and 6.0 rebounds and is carrying much of the ball-handling role.
Paul George has been the perfect Robin to Tatum’s Batman, scoring 22.0 points with 5.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists, and is performing much better from deep (44.0%) than Tatum.
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Barnes is the key for the Raptors, particularly while Kawhi Leonard remains out. It’s a load to put on the young wing, as he’s also the primary defender. He’s listed as OUT for this match.
The other key scorer to game plan for is R.J. Barrett, who has been the most consistent in the early season.
Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors bottom line: Boston defends the interior, allowing opponents to fire away from deep, but the Raptors aren’t a squad that revels in copious shots from 3-point land. That should benefit the Celtics despite the rest disadvantage.
Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors Basketball Betting Trends
- Under is 5-0 in the Celtics’ last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in the Celtics’ last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in the Celtics’ last 4 games as a favorite.
- Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Raptors are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.
- Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Celtics Raptors Free Pick: Celtics -7.5
Here is my Celtics Raptors free pick: I’m playing Boston ATS. The uncertainty of who’ll suit up for Toronto has me easily leaning into the Celtics.
Originally, when Kawhi went out, I always envisioned this game as the one he’d be targeting a return, but there’s been no update, so assume he’s out. Barnes is confirmed as out, while Quickley and Murray-Bowles are questionable.
That’s simply too much for the Raptors to overcome or, dare I say, make this competitive.
Per John Schuhmann: The Raptors lost some depth in the summer and have been dealing with more absences than that of Leonard, but they’ve had the league’s fifth-ranked bench through the first three weeks. They’ve been at their best with Allen Graves or Collin Murray-Boyles on the floor, and they got 30 points off the bench from Alijah Martin in Milwaukee on Saturday. (His previous career high was nine.)
On the devil’s advocate side of things, the Celtics do have a tendency to let teams back into matches or underestimate an inferior club. They could have a letdown from the big win on Tuesday, but I think they do enough to get the job done.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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Scottie Barnes (groin), Kawhi Leonard, and Nate Bittle remain OUT for Raptors on Wednesday.
Immanuel Quickley (hamstring), Collin Murray-Boyles (illness), and Trayce JacksonDavis (illness) are questionable.
Celtics playing tonight, with clear injury report.
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) November 10, 2026
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