Free Pick: Nuggets vs. Wolves Odds
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2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves
(1-2) Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (2-1)
Date: Apr 25, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: The Target Center, Minnesota
NBA Moneyline Odds: Nuggets -111 | Wolves +105 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Nuggets -1.5| Wolves +1.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 229.5
Here’s why I’m taking the visiting favorites as per below in my Wolves Nuggets free pick & gambling prediction for Game 4 of the West’s #3 vs. #6 NBA playoffs matchup.
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Nuggets vs. Wolves Gameday
Game three is in the books, and injuries have begun to impact the series, with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson both sidelined for the Nuggets. Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Playoffs between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets is on tap as the closing match of the night (8:30 p.m).
What was anticipated to be the most competitive of the eight playoff series had lived up to expectations through two matches. But in Game 3, it was the Wolves who looked stronger as they beat Denver 113-96.
It gave Minnesota the 16-15 edge through the club’s last 31 matches played and raises the question if this will go the distance.
Nikola Jokic (27 points/15 rebounds) and Jamal Murray (16 points) combined to shoot 12 of 42 in Game 3 and never looked comfortable. They were two of the four Nuggets who scored in double figures.
In contrast, Minnesota had six players score in double figures, including all five starters. Ayo Dosunmu led the scoring with 25 points off the bench, while Jaden McDaniels backed up his banter about the Nuggets’ poor defense as he delivered a double-double of 20 points and 10 rebounds.
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Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds & Last 5
The teams played four times this season, with the Nuggtes winning three of the four meetings.
The clubs have a playoff history, having faced each other three times in prior seasons, with the Wolves winning two of those series.
It’s also the third time in the last three seasons the clubs have met, with the most recent series occurring two seasons ago when the Wolves overcame a double-digit deficit in Game 7 in Denver to dispense of the Nuggets.
Coming into the playoffs, the Wolves dealt with copious injuries to their core, specifically missing Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. Minny went 3-2 in the final five games and was middling, going 5-5 through the last 10 matches.
In contrast, the Nuggets were on fire to close the season on a 12-game winning streak, including victories versus six playoff seeds and two current play-in teams.
Denver is favored by 1.5 points with an over/under of 229.5 points.
Nuggets Stats
Denver ranks first offensively (121.2) and 21st defensively (116.0) while they are seventh in net rating (+5.2) and rank 20th in pace (99.49).
The West’s third seed averages 122.1 points per game while its opponents average 116.9 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Denver averages 29.0 (fourth) and 44.0 (14th), respectively.
Team leaders* in key categories are Nikola Jokic for scoring (27.7), **rebounding (12.9), assists (10.7), and steals (1.4), while Peyton Watson leads in blocks (1.1).
As for perimeter efficiency, the Nuggets as a team shoot 39.6% (1st in NBA) with 12 (!!!) players shooting above the league average.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
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Wolves Stats
Minnesota ranks fourth (119.9) on offense and 14th on defense (114.3). Additionally, the Wolves hold the sixth-ranked net rating (+5.6) and run the 17th-quickest pace (101.04).
Through 13 games, the Wolves are showcasing improved offense with the second-best perimeter efficiency (40.6%) as well as the second-best field goal efficiency (50.5%).
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves bottom line:
Health raises its ugly head for the Nuggets as Aaron Gordon missed Game 3, and it proved problematic for the Nuggets. In fact, there are questions about Nikola Jokic’s health and whether he is playing through a wonky wrist.
They’ll need to suck it up in Game 4, because falling behind 3-1 is not an option.
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Basketball Betting Trends
- Denver is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver’s last 8 games.
- Denver is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games against Minnesota.
- Also, Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games.
- Additionally, Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games played in April.
Nuggets Wolves Free Pick: Nuggets -2
Here is my Nuggets Wolves free pick.
The Nuggets have lost two games in a row after winning 13 in a row, but looked susceptible in the losses. Chris Finch (who is out coaching Adelman) elected to go at both Jokic and Murray on the defensive end of the hardwood, and it’s paying dividends.
Not having Gordon is making the Nuggets’ task all the more difficult, and they enter Game 4 with him listed as questionable and Peyton Watson out again. These are their best two defenders, so the team will need to dig deep and bring a concerted defensive effort in Game 4 or allow the Wolves to take a stranglehold on the series.
To that end, Anthony Edwards also isn’t 100 percent and looked like he was favoring his leg at the game’s end. Fortunately, others on Minnesota stepped up in Game 3, so the Nuggets need to approach this game with a strategy to shut down the others.
Minnesota ranks 29th in free throw percentage while the Nuggets rank fifth with the second most made shots. In a series where a few points could decide every game that’s a considerable advantage.
It’s not often Jokic and Murray both have bad games, so expect them both to bring a must-win attitude to the court on Saturday.
They’ll need to summon a better effort if they want to even up the series and get some help from their teammates, particularly on defense.
Although the Wolves have all the momentum, I just can’t imagine Jokic not delivering in this scenario. Granted, they were my preseason pick to win it all, but I didn’t expect both Gordon and Watson to be out.
Still, I’ll roll with the Joker and Murray to bring their best effort so far and even up this series, so take Denver to win and cover.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
“Minnesota is a bad matchup for [Denver], I just think that is something where that could be upset alert.” 👀@realchriswebber has the Nuggets at risk when they face the Timberwolves in the playoffs ✍️
(via @RichEisenShow) pic.twitter.com/j8V0R40uEv
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) April 16, 2026
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