Free NBA Pick: Celtics vs. Heat NBA Odds
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2023 NBA Handicapping
(35-13) Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat (26-22)
Date: Tuesday, January 24th
Time: 7:30 PM EST
Venue: FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
Moneyline NBA Odds: Celtics +102 | Heat -115 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Heat -1.5
Today’s NBA Betting Total: 224.5
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Tuesday, January 24th, finds the Boston Celtics facing the Miami Heat for the fourth and final time this season. The Celtics lead the series 2-1 having won on October 21st (111-104) and November 30th (134-121) while the Heat took the December 2nd overtime match (120-116).
Boston is completing a back-to-back set having lost 98-113 to the Magic on Monday while the Heat last played Sunday defeating the Pelicans 100-96.
Last season, the squads played three times with Boston taking two of the three contests. The Celtics hold the advantage all-time having won 80 times of the club’s 132 meetings.
*Editor’s Note: Statistics and rankings are current as of this writing, Monday, evening, January 24th. Numbers may vary slightly entering games on Tuesday, January 24th.
If the Celtics have a weakness it appears to be playing the Magic – who have beaten them all three times they met this season including twice at the Garden.
While Jayson Tatum was back after sitting the last match the Celtics were missing arguably their top two defenders Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III who were both injured in the game versus the Raptors on Saturday.
Malcolm Brogdon was also absent so that represented three of the eight players the Celts typically utilize the most. It gives Boston a logical excuse for this loss but again, this is the third time they fell to the Magic.
Boston claims the second-best point production averaging 118.5 points per game. In terms of efficiency, they shoot 47.5% from the field and 37.1% from the perimeter ranking 12th and eighth respectively.
Opponents average 112.2 points per game which ranked 10th. Celtics opponents are limited to 46.9 percent from the field and 35.6% from the perimeter which ranks 12th and 13th respectively.
Since they played Monday they haven’t submitted an injury list yet so we’ll assume Williams (knee), Smart (ankle) and Brogdon (personal) are questionable for Tuesday. Danilo Gallinari (ACL repair) is out indefinitely.
Over the last 12 matches the Heat have registered an 8-4 record, possess a minuscule plus +0.2 net differential and three of those wins were by four points or less.
It highlights just how much parity exists in the league and perhaps also points to how little separates the 11th team from the sixth.
Case in point, the Raptors sit 11th with precisely the same net differential as Miami but are 5-7 in their last 12 games and four of those losses were by four points or less (one in OT). Cycle back to their eight previous losses and again four are by four points or less.
The big difference is the Heat are winning close games and find themselves sitting sixth because of it.
So far, offensively, the Heat score 108.6 points per game which ranks dead last in the association, they’re shooting 45.5% from the field ranking 26th, and 33.5% from the perimeter ranking 27th.
As can be seen, defensively, the Heat allow opponents to score 108.4 points per game ranking second overall. Also, Miami opponents shoot 47.4% from the field and 37.0% from the perimeter ranking 18th and 26th respectively.
Duncan Robinson (finger), Nikola Jovic (back), and Omer Yurtseven (ankle surgery) are out indefinitely.
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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat NBA Betting Trends:
- At this point, the Celtics are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
- Also, the Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against Miami.
- By comparison, Miami is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
- Finally, the Heat are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home.
Free Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat NBA Prediction:
Can’t imagine the Celtics are very happy about losing once again to the Magic but more importantly, the loss highlights that as good as this team’s offense is they need to be equally dialed in defensively especially if Smart and Williams are out for an extended period.
Miami has the rest advantage and needs to win to even the season series while the Celtics are 7-0 in the second games of back-to-back sets.
4* Free Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat NBA Betting Pick: Celtics +1.5
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