Free ALCS – Game 4 Pick: Blue Jays vs. Mariners Odds
Looking for Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Blue Jays taking on the Mariners on 10/16 at T-Mobile Park, in Seattle. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Blue Jays Mariners free pick.
2025 MLB Handicapping – Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners
ALCS – Game 4
(4-3) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners (5-3)
Date: Oct 16, 2025
Time: 8:33 PM ET
Venue: T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA
Projected Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer vs. Luis Castillo
MLB Moneyline Odds: Blue Jays +115 | Mariners -140 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Blue Jays +1.5 | Mariners -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 7.5
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Blue Jays vs. Mariners Gameday
The ALCS is heating up as the Seattle Mariners host the Toronto Blue Jays for Game 4. Seattle leads the series 2–1, making this matchup crucial for Toronto to avoid the brink. The game unfolds at T-Mobile Park on Thursday, October 16, 2025, at 8:33 PM.
Toronto posted a strong 94-68 regular season mark, proving their mettle in the competitive AL East. Yet, their 40-41 road record shows this team has struggled outside the Rogers Centre. (Last night not withstanding)
In their latest 13-4 win, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk delivered at the plate, keeping the Blue Jays alive.
Meanwhile, Seattle’s 90-72 record and impressive 51-30 home split speak volumes about their dominance in the PNW. They took the first two games of the series in Toronto, powered by Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh, who continue to shine under postseason pressure.
In their playoff head-to-heads, the Mariners hold a 2-1 series edge, though the Blue Jays had the upper hand in regular-season meetings. Toronto’s blowout win in Game 3 tightened things up.
With momentum swinging back and forth, Game 4 sets up to be a classic October chess match.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Odds & Last 5
Oddsmakers have the Mariners as slight favorites for Game 4, listed at -135 on the moneyline, while the Blue Jays come in at +114. On the runline, Toronto sits at +1.5 (-188) and Seattle at -1.5 (+156).
The total of 7.5 leans toward balanced scoring, with the over at -115 and the under at -105.
Toronto enters this one riding the high of a 13-4 offensive explosion in Game 3, thanks to Guerrero Jr. and Kirk’s big bats. Still, Seattle took the first two games with poise, showing their pitching depth and clutch hitting.
Regular season trends favored Toronto, but Seattle’s October form has tipped the scales. The runline has often been tight in this series, setting up another nail-biter.
Both clubs will look to exploit the smallest edge in this must-win setting.
Mariners Stats
The Mariners’ offense packs power and consistency. They own a .244 team batting average (11th in MLB), a .319 OBP (7th), and a .420 slugging rate (8th). Their 238 home runs rank third league-wide, proving they can change a game with one swing.
On the mound, Seattle’s pitching has held steady with a 3.87 ERA (12th) and opponents hitting just .240 against them (10th). Their 67 quality starts rank sixth, highlighting the rotation’s durability and balance.
Recently, the Mariners have seen mixed results. They dropped Game 3, 13-4, despite launching three homers. Before that, they crushed Toronto 10-3, limiting the Jays to six hits. Consistency is the name of the game heading into Thursday.
Individually, Cal Raleigh continues to rake — leading the team with 60 home runs and 125 RBIs.
Josh Naylor remains Seattle’s most reliable bat for contact, sporting a .295 average and 92 RBIs on the year.
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Blue Jays Stats
Toronto’s lineup has been among the league’s elite. They lead MLB with a .265 batting average and rank second in OBP at .331. Their .427 slugging percentage sits sixth overall, giving them balance from top to bottom.
The Jays are also third in doubles (294) and 13th in walks (520), though their 191 home runs rank 11th — showing power isn’t their only weapon. They’ve found ways to manufacture runs in all situations.
Pitching-wise, Toronto’s 4.19 ERA ranks 18th, and opponents are batting .240 against them (10th). Their 1,430 strikeouts place them sixth, showing a knack for missing bats.
Their recent play has been a roller coaster — but that Game 3 blowout reminded everyone what this lineup is capable of. Guerrero Jr. once again led by example, swinging freely and delivering results when it mattered.
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Blue Jays vs. Mariners Pitching Matchup
For Toronto, Max Scherzer takes the ball with a 5.19 ERA and a 5-5 record. The veteran’s stuff still flashes brilliance, but command and consistency have been spotty.
His 1.29 WHIP shows he’s limiting base traffic, though one bad inning can tilt his outing either way.
He’s been anything but great so far this season.
Even so, Scherzer’s strikeout ability remains lethal, and his postseason experience can’t be overstated.
If his slider is sharp, he can keep the Mariners guessing long enough to flip the script.
On the other side, Luis Castillo starts for Seattle, sporting an 11-8 record and a 3.54 ERA. His 1.19 WHIP and knack for generating strikeouts make him a trusted ace in high-pressure spots.
Castillo’s rhythm, poise, and command have defined his success. With Seattle feeding off home-field energy, the Mariners’ right-hander will look to put them one win away from the franchise’s first World Series appearance since 2001.
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays bottom line: With Castillo locked in the edge tilts toward the Mariners once again.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Baseball Betting Trends
- The Mariners have won 3 of their last 5 games straight-up.
- Also, the Mariners have covered the run line in 3 of their last 5.
- The total has gone over in 3 of the Mariners’ last 5.
- The Blue Jays have won 2 of their last 5 games straight-up.
- Additionally, the Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in 3 of their last 5.
- The total has gone over in 3 of the Blue Jays’ last 5.
ALCS – Game 4 Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction: Over 7.5
Here’s my Blue Jays Mariners free pick. The Mariners and Blue Jays have both leaned heavily toward the over lately, with the total surpassing the line in three of their last five games each.
Their lineups have been firing, and neither team has been shy about producing runs early and often.
In fact, two of their last three postseason meetings have also gone over, reinforcing the idea that these teams thrive in slugfests. The Blue Jays’ offense ranks third in home runs, while the Mariners boast one of the best batting averages in the league — a combination that screams run support.
Both clubs bring enough pop to push this total past the number once again.
Furthermore, Seattle’s 4.19 team ERA leaves the door open for Toronto’s power bats to capitalize. Given their shared trend of offensive success and postseason history, the over offers strong value.
This matchup sets up nicely for another game filled with fireworks at the plate.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
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MLB Betting Tweet Of The Day
Another opportunity tomorrow with La Piedra on the mound 💪 pic.twitter.com/hf2CFc2b4A
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) October 16, 2025
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