Free ALDS – Game 4 Pick: Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds
Looking for Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Free MLB predictions for ALDS game 4? MLB betting sees the Blue Jays taking on the Yankees on 10/8 at Yankee Stadium, in New York. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Blue Jays Yankees free pick.
2025 MLB Handicapping – Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees
ALDS – Game 4
(2-1) Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees (3-3)
Date: Oct 08, 2025
Time: 7:08 PM ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium in New York, NY
Projected Starting Pitchers: Louis Varland vs. Cam Schlittler
MLB Moneyline Odds: Blue Jays +158 | Yankees -187 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Blue Jays +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 8.5
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Blue Jays vs. Yankees Gameday
Game 4 of the ALDS arrives with the Toronto Blue Jays holding a 2-1 edge over the New York Yankees. The stage is Yankee Stadium, where the home crowd will try to push their team to a series-tying win.
The forecast calls for mild temperatures with a chance of light rain, which could add some unpredictability to the night. Both lineups have slugged their way through the first three games, and momentum swings have come fast.
Toronto’s regular-season résumé was strong at 94-68. They’ve carried that energy into October, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho, who’ve been timely and clutch in big moments.
Meanwhile, the Yankees matched that same 94-68 record but relied heavily on their 50-31 home mark to stay competitive. Aaron Judge has once again stepped into superstar form, sparking the Game 3 win to keep their season alive.
Historically, the Jays have had the upper hand this postseason, outscoring New York by an average of four runs in their past three meetings.
Yet, with the series now back in the Bronx, Yankee Stadium’s energy could easily flip the script. Expect fireworks on FS1 at 7:08 PM ET.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Odds & Last 5
The Yankees enter Game 4 as -186 moneyline favorites, while Toronto sits at +157. The total is 8.5 runs, with the over slightly shaded at -120 — fitting for a series filled with offense.
Toronto dominated early, winning Games 1 and 2 while averaging 11.5 runs. Their bats have been red-hot, powered by a balanced mix of contact and power hitting across the lineup.
However, New York found its rhythm in Game 3, taking a 9-6 win behind Aaron Judge’s monster performance.
That victory snapped the Jays’ momentum and reminded everyone this series is far from over.
With both teams sitting on matching 94-win seasons, it’s fitting that every inning now feels like a heavyweight exchange.
Yankees Stats
The New York Yankees have been an offensive powerhouse all season. They rank 6th in batting average (.251) while leading MLB in both on-base percentage (.332) and slugging percentage (.455). Their 274 home runs also top the league, proving their power runs deep.
On the pitching side, their 3.91 ERA ranks 13th overall, and opponents hit just .228 against them — the second-best mark in baseball. Their 1,440 strikeouts rank 4th, showing the rotation’s ability to miss bats consistently.
Recent games have been a mixed bag. They bounced back in Game 3 with a 9-6 win, where Judge went 3-for-4 with a homer and two RBIs. Still, their pitching staff struggled in earlier matchups, giving up double-digit runs in both losses.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Ben Rice have also played key roles in supporting the middle of the order. Chisholm’s 31 home runs and Rice’s 26 have added crucial protection around Judge, keeping New York’s lineup dangerous from top to bottom.
If the Yankees’ pitching holds, they’ll have every chance to push this series to the brink.
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Blue Jays Stats
The Toronto Blue Jays have been one of the best contact teams in baseball. Their .265 batting average leads the league, while their .331 on-base percentage ranks second. This lineup thrives on plate discipline and hitting to all fields.
Toronto’s power is no joke either. They’ve slugged 191 home runs (11th) and are 3rd in doubles (294), giving them one of the more complete offensive profiles in baseball.
The only knock? Their 77 steals rank 23rd — they prefer extra-base hits to small-ball tactics.
Pitching has been more middle-of-the-pack. Their 4.19 ERA ranks 18th, but they’ve limited opponents to a .240 average (10th). Their 1,430 strikeouts (6th) prove they can miss bats even if run prevention hasn’t been perfect.
Recently, Toronto blasted New York 13-7 on October 5th behind Trey Yesavage’s strong start and an offensive outburst. In Game 3, though, their bullpen faltered late in a 9-6 loss despite solid efforts from Guerrero Jr. and Ernie Clement.
This team has the firepower to finish it — but composure on the mound will decide everything tonight.
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Blue Jays vs. Yankees Pitching Matchup
Louis Varland will get the call for the Blue Jays, carrying a sharp 2.97 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. His 4-3 record doesn’t fully capture how effective he’s been at limiting damage and pounding the strike zone.
Varland’s ability to work ahead in counts and generate soft contact has been his calling card. With his strikeout rate climbing late in the season, he’s trending in the right direction at the perfect time.
On the flip side, Cam Schlittler gets the nod for New York. He’s been equally steady with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP across 12 starts. His mix of breaking pitches and late movement keeps hitters guessing every trip through the order.
Schlittler’s command gives the Yankees a fighting chance against Toronto’s hot bats. Still, with both pitchers nearly identical statistically, it may come down to who handles the big moments best.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees bottom line: If either side blinks first, the other could run away with it in a hurry.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Baseball Betting Trends
- The Yankees have gone over the total in 4 of their last 5.
- Also, the Yankees have lost 3 of their last 5 games straight-up.
- The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 4 of their last 5.
- The Blue Jays have hit the over in 4 of their last 5 games.
- Additionally, the Yankees have covered the run line in 2 of their last 5.
- The Blue Jays have won 4 of their last 5 games straight-up.
ALDS – Game 4 Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction: Blue Jays ML +157
Here is my Blue Jays Yankees free pick. The Toronto Blue Jays enter this matchup riding a wave of momentum, winning four of their last five games overall.
Because they already hold a 2-1 series lead over New York, the Jays have shown they can handle Yankee Stadium’s pressure and capitalize when it matters most.
Meanwhile, the Yankees have stumbled down the stretch, dropping three of their last five contests. Even with home-field advantage, their recent inconsistency at the plate has been costly.
Their bullpen has struggled to hold leads, giving the Jays an opening to strike late once again.
Statistically, Toronto’s lineup is firing on all cylinders, and their recent situational hitting has been the difference in this series. Consequently, at +157, the value lies entirely with the hotter, more confident team.
With Toronto’s momentum and favorable odds, grabbing the Blue Jays ML +157 feels like the sharp side.
All things considered, the Jays have the bats, bullpen depth, and belief to finish the job. My forecast expects Toronto to stay aggressive at the plate, frustrate Yankee pitching, and seal a road win to close out the series and advance to the ALCS.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
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MLB Betting Tweet Of The Day
Yankees Twitter!
Good Night.#RepBX pic.twitter.com/shVe3Zc4EW
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) October 8, 2025
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