Free Pick: Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds
Looking for Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Blue Jays taking on the Orioles on 9/23 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, in Baltimore. This free MLB baseball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Blue Jays Orioles matchup.
2026 MLB Handicapping – Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles
(77-80) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles (76-81)
Date: Sep 23, 2026
Time: 1:35 PM ET
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD
Projected Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer vs. Chris Bassitt
MLB Moneyline Odds: Blue Jays +104 | Orioles -125 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Blue Jays +1.5 | Orioles -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 7.5
Here’s why I’m backing an UNDER bet below in my Blue Jays Orioles free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Gameday
The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles have an unexpected doubleheader on the menu Wednesday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Tuesday’s rainout pushed Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt into the opener, with first pitch set for 1:35 PM ET.
Toronto enters at 77-80, one game ahead of Baltimore at 76-81. Neither club has much September glory left to chase, but finishing ahead of an AL East rival still beats the alternative.
Nothing says late September baseball quite like a rain-made doubleheader between division rivals playing for pride.
Baltimore took Monday’s series opener 4-3 behind two Pete Alonso home runs. The Orioles scored all four runs in the first four innings, then survived Toronto’s late push.
The Blue Jays still lead the season series 6-5. Toronto is 37-42 away from home, while Baltimore has gone 37-42 at Camden Yards, so somebody gets to improve a fairly symmetrical bit of mediocrity.
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This is Game 1 of the doubleheader, with Scherzer and Bassitt carrying over from Tuesday’s postponed matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Odds & Last 5
Baltimore is a modest favorite for the opener, sitting around -125 on the moneyline with Toronto around +105. The Orioles are roughly +168 laying 1.5 runs, while the Blue Jays are around -205 getting the run and a half.
The total remains 7.5.
Baltimore is 2-3 over its last five games, but four of those contests stayed under the total. The Orioles scored only six runs during three straight losses before Alonso supplied all the offense they needed against Toronto on Monday.
The Blue Jays have also dropped three of five. They scored 17 runs across that stretch, with Monday’s loss continuing a September pattern of games where the offense hasn’t exactly required an adding machine.
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Orioles Stats
Baltimore enters Wednesday hitting .234 with a .314 on-base percentage. The Orioles have supplied considerably more damage with power, hitting 192 home runs despite an offense that has been inconsistent down the stretch.
Pete Alonso remains the obvious danger. He has 40 homers after going deep twice Monday, when his three-run shot in the third and solo homer in the fourth accounted for Baltimore’s entire offensive output.
Gunnar Henderson and Coby Mayo have added 24 home runs apiece, giving Baltimore several hitters capable of changing the game without stringing together a long rally.
The Orioles’ pitching staff carries a 4.12 ERA into the doubleheader. Baltimore has also been without Jordan Westburg because of an elbow injury, taking another established bat out of the lineup.
Blue Jays Stats
Toronto is batting .248 as a team with a .310 on-base percentage and .382 slugging percentage. Those numbers haven’t translated into much recent thunder, with the Blue Jays scoring three runs or fewer in three of their last five games.
Kazuma Okamoto supplies the biggest home-run threat with 33. George Springer has 15 homers, while Alejandro Kirk has remained one of Toronto’s steadier bats with a .283 average.
Toronto can still run into one, but lately the fireworks budget appears to have been trimmed.
The pitching staff owns a 3.93 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .235 batting average.
Toronto is dealing with several absences late in the season, including Anthony Santander, José Berríos and Bowden Francis. Addison Barger was also scratched Sunday because of an elbow issue.
The Blue Jays are 37-42 on the road and need four wins over their final five games simply to finish at .500. September has a way of reducing the goals to something manageable.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Pitching Matchup
Max Scherzer gets the ball for Toronto after Tuesday’s postponement pushed his start into Wednesday’s doubleheader opener. The veteran right-hander is 3-8 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
Scherzer has struck out 54 batters, but the swing-and-miss dominance that once made every start an event hasn’t been there consistently. At 42, he’s fighting through the roughest statistical season of his career.
Chris Bassitt starts opposite his former Blue Jays teammate.
The Baltimore right-hander is 8-5 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He’s struck out 72, but that WHIP tells the less flattering half of the story: traffic has been a regular feature when Bassitt pitches.
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Neither starter comes into this matchup carrying numbers that scream pitchers’ duel.
Scherzer has the better WHIP, while Bassitt owns the lower ERA and has been better at keeping Baltimore competitive. Both are averaging fewer than seven strikeouts per nine innings, putting more responsibility on the defenses behind them.
The matchup becomes a question of which recent trend wins out: two vulnerable veteran starters or two lineups that haven’t exactly spent the last week terrorizing pitching staffs.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles bottom line: Scherzer and Bassitt bring enough late-season uncertainty to make the total uncomfortable, but neither offense has been consistently productive enough to make 7.5 look cheap.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Baseball Betting Trends
- Orioles have lost three of their last five games straight-up.
- Additionally, Orioles have hit the under in three of their last five games.
- Blue Jays have lost three of their last five games straight-up.
- Blue Jays have hit the under in four of their last five games.
- Plus, the Orioles have covered the run line in two of their last five games.
- Blue Jays have covered the run line in two of their last five games.
Blue Jays Orioles Free Pick: Under 7.5
Here is my Blue Jays Orioles free pick: I’m taking Under 7.5. It’s not exactly comforting putting an under ticket in the hands of Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt right now, but both offenses have been doing their part to keep scorekeepers relaxed.
Baltimore has scored 16 runs over its last five games, with seven of those coming in one afternoon against the Mets. Toronto has managed 17 over the same stretch and has been held to three runs or fewer three times.
Neither starter is selling Cy Young tickets these days, so the offenses still need to cooperate.
The Orioles have played four unders in their last five, including Monday’s 4-3 win over Toronto. Camden Yards also isn’t getting much help from the weather, with temperatures in the mid-60s and a modest breeze expected.
Seven and a half doesn’t leave much room for nonsense, especially with these starters. Still, the recent offensive form points me toward another game where runs arrive grudgingly.
Take Under 7.5.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
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Baltimore Orioles on X
Doubleheader in Birdland.
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📻 98 Rock 97.9 FM & WBAL 1090 AM pic.twitter.com/q6HuX34ddP— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) September 23, 2026
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