Free Pick: Rays vs. Yankees Odds
Looking for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Rays taking on the Yankees on 9/24 at Yankee Stadium, in New York. This free MLB baseball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Rays Yankees matchup.
2026 MLB Handicapping – Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees
(96-62) Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees (91-67)
Date: Sep 24, 2026
Time: 7:05 PM ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium in New York, NY
Projected Starting Pitchers: Ian Seymour vs. Cam Schlittler
MLB Moneyline Odds: Rays +125 | Yankees -148 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Rays +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 6.5
Here’s why I’m backing an OVER bet below in my Rays Yankees free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Rays vs. Yankees Gameday
The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees finish their four-game set Thursday night at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET on YES and Rays.TV.
Tampa Bay enters 96-62 after clinching the AL East during Tuesday’s doubleheader. The Rays took the opener 6-1 before New York answered with a 2-0 win in the nightcap, and the Yankees followed with a 9-2 victory Wednesday.
New York is 91-67 and has already secured a postseason berth.
The Rays already took the division; the Yankees appear perfectly happy making the celebration slightly less enjoyable.
Ben Rice hit his 40th and 41st home runs Wednesday, while Ryan McMahon supplied a grand slam in the seven-run win. Tampa Bay managed six hits and has scored only two runs across its two losses in this series.
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The Yankees are still playing without Aaron Judge, who remains on the injured list with a right calf strain. Tampa Bay has the division wrapped up, but New York still has October positioning to play for.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Odds & Last 5
The Yankees are home favorites around -144, with Tampa Bay approximately +122. New York is +164 laying 1.5 runs, while the Rays are -200 getting the run and a half.
The total sits at 6.5.
Tampa Bay is 3-2 over its last five after finishing its home schedule with consecutive wins over Boston. The Rays have split the first three games of this series, while New York has now won two straight.
Wednesday was the loud one.
The Yankees collected 12 hits and four home runs in the 9-2 victory. Thursday’s forecast is less friendly to the long ball, with temperatures around 60 degrees and a noticeable breeze expected to blow in toward right field.
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Yankees Stats
The Yankees have hit an MLB-leading 221 home runs while scoring 725 runs. The tradeoff has been a .234 team batting average, so this remains an offense capable of looking quiet for a few innings before changing the scoreboard in a hurry.
Ben Rice has done plenty of changing lately.
Rice leads New York with 41 home runs after taking Mason Englert deep twice Wednesday. He’s hitting .263 with a .537 slugging percentage and 97 RBIs, giving the Yankees another serious power source with Judge unavailable.
Luis García Jr. has also reached 30 home runs this season.
The bigger strength has been New York’s pitching staff. The Yankees carry an MLB-best 3.21 team ERA and have allowed opponents to hit just .222.
Cam Schlittler is a fairly significant reason those numbers look so good.
Rays Stats
Tampa Bay owns an MLB-best .258 batting average and has stolen 162 bases, second-most in baseball. The Rays also carry a .326 on-base percentage, although their 165 home runs put them well behind New York in pure power.
Junior Caminero remains the biggest threat.
Caminero has 41 home runs with 97 RBIs and a .523 slugging percentage. Yandy Díaz is batting .292, while Jonathan Aranda has added a .277 average and 22 homers.
Tampa Bay doesn’t have New York’s home-run total, but getting this lineup off the bases has been somebody else’s problem all year.
The Rays’ pitching staff owns a 3.71 ERA and an MLB-best 1.13 WHIP. Tampa Bay has also allowed 25 home runs from Thursday starter Ian Seymour alone, a number worth remembering inside Yankee Stadium.
The offense hasn’t done much damage lately.
Tampa Bay has been held to two runs or fewer in three of its last four games, including two of the first three against New York.
Rays vs. Yankees Pitching Matchup
Ian Seymour gets the ball for Tampa Bay at 9-7 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The left-hander has struck out 155 in 127.1 innings, but his 25 home runs allowed have been the obvious trouble spot.
Boston got to him last time out.
Seymour allowed four runs on seven hits, including two homers, over five innings in a 4-2 loss. He had been better in his previous start against Houston, allowing two runs with 10 strikeouts across six innings.
Cam Schlittler counters with a completely different statistical profile.
The Yankees right-hander is 14-6 with an AL-best 1.94 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 234 strikeouts in 190.2 innings. He’s allowed only 16 home runs all season while holding opponents to 126 hits.
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Schlittler has been especially nasty down the stretch. Over his last four starts, he’s allowed three earned runs across 27 innings while striking out 33.
The Rays have seen him before.
Schlittler held Tampa Bay to one run over eight innings in a 5-1 Yankees win on July 6, striking out eight without issuing a walk.
Seymour faced New York the following night and struck out 12 over 5.1 innings, although the Yankees scored three runs against him.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees bottom line: Schlittler gives New York a major starting-pitching advantage, but Seymour’s home-run vulnerability runs directly into the Yankees’ biggest offensive strength as these AL East rivals finish their series in the Bronx.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Baseball Betting Trends
- The Yankees are 2-3 straight up in their last five games.
- Plus, the Yankees have covered the run line in 2 of their last 5 games.
- The total has gone over in 3 of the Yankees’ last 5 games.
- The Rays are 3-2 straight up in their last five games.
- Also, the Rays have covered the run line in 3 of their last 5 games.
- The total has gone under in 3 of the Rays’ last 5 games.
Rays Yankees Free Pick: Over 6.5
Here is my Rays Yankees free pick: I’m taking Over 6.5. Cam Schlittler has been ridiculous this season, but 6.5 is still a low bar for two lineups with enough power to change the math in a couple swings.
Ian Seymour is the easier target. He’s allowed 25 home runs in 127.1 innings, including two against Boston in his last start, and now gets a Yankees lineup that leads baseball with 221 bombs.
Schlittler may be dealing again, but I’m not asking the Rays to do half the work on this total.
New York scored nine Wednesday without Aaron Judge, with Ben Rice going deep twice and Ryan McMahon hitting a grand slam. The Rays have been quiet in two of the first three games of this series, but this lineup still owns MLB’s best batting average.
The wind blowing in isn’t ideal, but that’s baked into a 6.5 total. Give me enough Yankees damage against Seymour and a little help from Tampa Bay.
Take Over 6.5.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
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New York Yankees on X
The first step. #RepBX pic.twitter.com/7HiW564xP2
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 15, 2026
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