Free ALDS – Game 3 Pick: Rays vs. Yankees Odds
Looking for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Rays taking on the Yankees on 10/7 at Yankee Stadium, in New York. This free MLB baseball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Rays Yankees matchup.
2026 MLB Handicapping – Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees
ALDS – Game 3
(2-0) Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees (2-2)
Date: Oct 07, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium in New York, NY
Projected Starting Pitchers: Nick Martinez vs. Max Fried
MLB Moneyline Odds: Rays +136 | Yankees -162 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Rays +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 7
Here’s why I’m backing a Tampa Bay ML bet below in my Rays Yankees free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Rays vs. Yankees Gameday
The Tampa Bay Rays take a 2-0 ALDS lead into Game 3 against the New York Yankees on Wednesday, October 7 at Yankee Stadium.
First pitch is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on TBS, truTV and HBO Max. Kevin Cash’s Rays can advance to the ALCS with one more victory after winning the first two games at Tropicana Field.
Tampa Bay finished 98-64 and won the AL East, while Aaron Boone’s Yankees went 93-68. New York swept Boston in the Wild Card Series before running into a considerably less cooperative Tampa Bay club. Now the Yankees get home field, but they also get an elimination game attached to it.
The Bronx should be loud, although trailing Tampa Bay 2-0 tends to remove some of the small talk.
The Rays won Game 1 by a 1-0 score behind a dominant Drew Rasmussen performance.
They followed with a 5-2 victory in Game 2, scoring four times in the fifth inning. New York also committed four errors Monday, which is a creative way to make an elimination game arrive early.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Odds & Last 5
New York opened as a -162 home favorite for Game 3, with Tampa Bay returning +137 on the moneyline.
The Rays were +1.5 at -167 on the runline, while the Yankees were -1.5 at +140. The opening total was 7, with Over 7 priced at -122 and Under 7 at +101.
Tampa Bay has allowed only two runs through the first two games of the series. New York managed only five hits combined in those losses, leaving the Yankees searching for offense with their season now on the line. The Rays, meanwhile, are one victory away from reaching the ALCS.
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Yankees Stats
New York hit .235 with a .311 on-base percentage during the regular season while launching 223 home runs.
Ben Rice supplied plenty of that power, batting .263 with 41 homers and 97 RBI. His .899 OPS led the Yankees among their regular everyday contributors.
Luis García Jr. became another useful piece after joining New York during the season, hitting seven home runs in 42 games with the Yankees. Cody Bellinger added balance to a lineup built to do considerably more damage than it has through two ALDS games. The power is there; finding somebody to drive home has been the more immediate October problem.
Rays Stats
Tampa Bay finished second in the majors with a .258 team batting average and hit 169 home runs.
Junior Caminero was the centerpiece, batting .276 with 42 homers and 101 RBI. Jonathan Aranda hit .274 with 22 home runs and 92 RBI, while Yandy Díaz finished at .293 with 180 hits.
The Rays also led the American League with 164 stolen bases. That speed gives Cash another way to create pressure without waiting around for somebody to hit one into the seats. Apparently Tampa Bay never received the memo that putting runners in motion had gone out of fashion.
Tampa Bay doesn’t need to bash its way through October when making opponents uncomfortable works just fine.
That combination of contact, speed and middle-of-the-order production helped the Rays finish with the American League’s best record.
Rays vs. Yankees Pitching Matchup
Nick Martinez gets the Game 3 start for Tampa Bay after finishing the regular season 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA.
The right-hander worked 180 innings and struck out 109 while posting a 1.09 WHIP. His ability to limit traffic gives Tampa Bay an experienced arm for a potential series-clinching game.
Max Fried gets the ball for New York with the Yankees facing elimination. The left-hander finished 5-5 with a 2.80 ERA, 104 strikeouts and a 0.99 WHIP across 112 2/3 innings. That’s exactly the type of starter Boone wants holding the baseball when the alternative is packing lockers.
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Fried was sharp in the Wild Card round against Boston, allowing one run over six innings with six strikeouts.
He also owns a strong career history against Tampa Bay. The Rays did get to him on September 22, scoring four earned runs over 6 2/3 innings in a game Fried lost.
Martinez doesn’t bring Fried’s strikeout profile, but his workload and control make this a legitimate starting-pitching matchup rather than an ace against a placeholder. That’s worth remembering when checking the number at your preferred sportsbooks. Neither manager should feel obligated to reach for the bullpen after the first sign of trouble.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees bottom line: Fried gives New York the bigger name on the mound, but Martinez gives Tampa Bay enough stability to make Game 3 another uncomfortable night in the Bronx.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Baseball Betting Trends
- The Yankees are 2-3 straight up in their last five games.
- Additionally, the Yankees have hit the under in three of their last five games.
- The Rays are 4-1 straight up in their last five games.
- The Rays have covered the run line in three of their last five games.
- However, the total has gone under in four of the Rays’ last five games.
- The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in three of their last five games.
Rays Yankees Free Pick: Rays ML +137
Here is my Rays Yankees free pick: Rays ML +137.
New York being favored at home with Fried on the mound makes sense. What I don’t buy is the idea that Tampa Bay belongs at a price this generous simply because the Yankees are facing elimination.
At +137, the Rays only need to win this game a little more than 42% of the time to justify the bet. That’s where the number gets my attention, because Martinez gives Tampa Bay a legitimate chance to stay attached through the middle innings. If this becomes a one-run game late, I’ll gladly hold the plus-money ticket rather than pay -162 for the privilege of sweating with New York.
Desperation can sharpen a team, but sportsbooks don’t hand out bonus runs because the Yankees need them.
There’s another part of this price I like: New York has to play Game 3 as if there is no tomorrow, because there isn’t. Tampa Bay can be aggressive without carrying that same weight into every at-bat and every pitching decision.
Fried is absolutely capable of shutting this down, and pretending otherwise would be a lousy reason to bet an underdog. But baseball doesn’t require the Rays to be the better team for 162 games tonight; I need them to win one game often enough to beat a +137 price. That’s a much lower bar, and one I’m comfortable clearing with Tampa Bay.
The pinstripes don’t scare me enough to lay this number the other way. Give me the Rays ML +137.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
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New York Yankees on X
Fire & Rice 🔥🧊 https://t.co/DtdaPNMCa7
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) October 6, 2026
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