Free MLB Pick: Mariners vs Twins Odds
Looking for Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins free plays? MLB betting sees the Mariners taking on the Twins on Wednesday, June 14, 2017 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions.
(32-33) Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins (32-28)
Date: Wednesday, June 14, 2017
Time: 8:10 PM ET
Venue: Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Projected Pitchers: Sam Gaviglio vs. Ervin Santana
MLB Moneyline Odds: Seattle +110 | Minnesota +125
MLB RunLine Betting Odds: Minnesota -1.5
MLB Betting Total: +10.5
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The Mariners have been surging as late, winning 11 of their last 15 games, despite being ravaged by injuries, especially on their pitching staff.
Seattle has trotted out 12 different starting pitchers this year, many of which have been more than an ordinary spot start, as 8 of those pitchers have started at least 4 games this season.
Sam Gaviglio is one of those 8 pitchers as he’ll make his 5th start of the season for the Mariners. He’s a journeymen minor leaguer as he started his 7th straight season in the minors this year, before being called up for his first major league start earlier this season.
He’s been effective, through 29 innings Gaviglio has a 2.79 ERA and the Mariners have won four of the five outings in which he’s pitched.
Most of his success is aided by a low BABIP which is a result of more than 52% of balls in play being hit on the ground that lead to easy outs. If he can continue that trend, he should be able to sustain his success.
The Twins continue to be a surprise this season and find themselves in 1st place in the AL Central and two games ahead of the defending AL champion Cleveland Indians.
Ervin Santana has contributed to that success, but there are questions as to whether or not his individual success is short lived.
Santana does have a 2.20 ERA over 90 innings and is averaging nearly 7 innings per start. His K/9 rate is about average and his walk rate, while below average isn’t extraordinarily out of line.
It’s that his BABIP is the lowest in the league at .154, almost 50 points lower than the next lowest for qualified starting pitchers.
A deeper look shows that this may be a sustainable skill as he gives up soft contact more than 21% of the time (a top 20 rate) and gives up hard contact only 23% of the time (2nd lowest in the league).
But there is also his sky high strand rate, at more than 88%, that when coupled with his league low BABIP show signs of future regression for Santana.
It’s possible that Santana’s pitching craft or location of his pitches are aiding his success, but what’s more likely is that he’ll regress to the mean before season’s end.
MLB Baseball Betting Trends:
- SEA are 11-4 in their last 15 overall.
- MIN are 18-38 in their last 56 home games.
- Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Free Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Prediction:
Seattle’s offense has been mighty over the past few weeks and that should continue at Target Field.
4* Free MLB Betting Pick: OVER 10.5
Both pitchers are outperforming their projections and it’s only a matter of time until something gives, don’t bet on which one but rather that one will implode.
MLB Free Score Prediction: Seattle 7 – Minnesota 5
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