Free MLB Pick: Mariners vs. Astros Odds
Looking for Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Mariners taking on Astros on Wednesday, April 28th, 2021 at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Mariners Astros free pick.
2021 MLB Handicapping
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Date: Wednesday, April 28th, 2021
Time: 8:45 pm
Venue: Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas
Projected Pitchers: Justin Dunn vs. Zack Greinke
MLB Moneyline Odds: M’s +189 | Astros -209
MLB RunLine Betting Odds: Astros -1.5 (-105)
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U 8.5
At 13-11, the Mariners have been much better than expected in the early going.
However, the statistics are in line with their record. They boast a run differential of -1 while ranking 13th in both wRC+ (96) and FIP (4.16). They’ve been a slightly above average team.
However, it’s been fun to watch Seattle play and succeed so far. In fact, Seattle has been one of the most profitable teams to bet on in the early going, as they’ve gone 12-9 as an underdog this season.
Offensively, Ty France and Mitch Haniger have been carrying the load. France is boasting a .408 wOBA while Haniger has already recorded five home runs and 17 RBIs.
Meanwhile, Chris Flexen has been Seattle’s best pitcher, boasting a 2.74 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in his four starts. In the bullpen, closer Rafael Montero has recorded three saves on top of a 2.61 ERA and a .774 WHIP.
Houston has been ravaged by COVID-19 troubles in early 2021. However, they’ve managed to tread water and are now in prime position to break out.
Despite having a 12-11 record, the Astros boast a run differential of +23, which is best in the American League. As mentioned, the Astros have won five of their last six games, but the offense has really picked up the pace.
Over the past seven days, the Astros have posted a .334 wOBA and a 124 wRC+, both rank fourth in the majors over that span. They also have the fourth-highest batting average (.260) and have scored the fourth-most runs (106) over that stretch.
During their early-season COVID struggles, Yuli Gurriel has dragged the Astros along. He’s posted a .447 wOBA, a 1.033 OPS and a 16.8% walk rate in the early going. Plus, he’s been red-hot recently, as he’s recorded a .500 average, a 1.467 OPS, two home runs and seven RBIs over the past four games.
Free Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros MLB Prediction:
While Houston is a heavy favorite, I think it’s very justifiable. And given the pitching matchups and the recent offensive performances of the two teams, I actually think the Astros run line provides great value in this spot.
Either way, he’s still been great at forcing weak contact. So far this season, Greinke sits in the 89th percentile in average exit velocity and in the 85th percentile in hard-hit percentage.
All-in-all, Greinke’s made five starts and has posted a 2.75 ERA, a 2.93 xERA and a 1.10 WHIP. And if you take away a disastrous start against the Tigers, where he allowed six runs on ten hits over 4 2/3 innings, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Meanwhile, Dunn’s had crazy control issues. After posting a 15.7% walk rate last year, he’s currently boasting a 16.9% walk rate this year. He walked 31 guys in 45 2/3 innings last season and has walked 11 guys in 14 2/3 innings this season.
Expect the red-hot Astros lineup to dominate the control-less Dunn while Greinke continues to mow down Mariners hitters.
4* Free MLB Betting Pick: Houston -1.5
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