Free NL Wild Card – Game 3 Pick: Padres vs. Cubs Odds
Looking for San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Padres taking on the Cubs on 10/2 at Wrigley Field, in Chicago in Game 3. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Padres Cubs NL Wild Card free pick.
2025 MLB Handicapping – San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs
NL Wild Card – Game 3
(1-1) San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs (1-1)
Date: Oct 02, 2025
Time: 5:08 PM ET
Venue: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL
Projected Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish vs. Jameson Taillon
MLB Moneyline Odds: Padres -104 | Cubs -116 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Padres -1.5 | Cubs +1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 7.5
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Padres vs. Cubs Gameday
It’s win-or-go-home at Wrigley Field as the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs clash in Game 3 of the NL Wild Card series. With the series tied 1-1, the winner advances, and the loser packs it in for the winter.
Conditions are overcast with a light breeze in Chicago — typical October playoff weather that could play a role in how this one unfolds.
San Diego, under Mike Shildt, finished the regular season at 90-72 but struggled on the road (38-43). They evened the series behind Dylan Cease’s gem in Game 2, blanking Chicago 3-0.
Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. will be leaned on to deliver big swings in a hostile environment.
Craig Counsell’s Cubs went 92-70 in the regular season and have been tough at home (50-31). They grabbed Game 1, 3-1, thanks to steady pitching and timely hits.
With the Wrigley crowd behind them, Chicago will look to ride their depth and balance into the NLDS.
Both clubs have traded punches all year — and both postseason games have stayed under the total.
Expect another grinder with everything on the line.
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San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Odds & Last 5
Oddsmakers call this one close, with the Cubs slight favorites at -115 and the Padres at -103. The runline has Chicago +1.5 (-203), while San Diego sits -1.5 (+171). The total is 7.5 runs, shaded to the under (-112).
Game 2 saw the Padres dominate behind Cease, holding the Cubs to just four hits. But in Game 1, Chicago’s pitching stifled San Diego’s bats in a 3-1 win. Both teams have kept games low-scoring, and the under has hit in each contest.
Heading into the decider, Chicago’s home edge and San Diego’s road struggles loom large.
One mistake could swing the series.
Cubs Stats
Chicago hit .249 this year (8th) with a .320 OBP (6th) and .430 slugging (5th). Michael Busch (34 HR, .261 AVG) and Seiya Suzuki (32 HR) powered the offense, while timely hitting has been their calling card.
On the mound, the Cubs finished with a 3.81 ERA (9th) and held opponents to a .238 batting average (9th). They notched 61 quality starts but struggled with the long ball, surrendering 202 homers (21st).
Still, their consistency at Wrigley has been a difference-maker.
They’ve won four of their last five overall and know how to grind out runs at home.
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Padres Stats
San Diego hit .252 (5th) with a .318 OBP (8th), but their power lagged (.390 SLG, 17th). Manny Machado (.275, 27 HR, 95 RBI) leads the way, while Luis Arraez and Ryan O’Hearn provide steady contact.
Their pitching staff is the real strength: a 3.64 ERA (3rd) and a league-best .225 batting average against.
They struck out 1,389 hitters and kept games under control, but gave up 178 homers (12th).
They’ve split the first two games with Chicago and will count on their arms to carry them once again in a pressure spot.
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Padres vs. Cubs Pitching Matchup
The Padres hand the ball to Yu Darvish (5-5, 5.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP). His season was up-and-down, but his WHIP suggests he limits traffic, and his experience in big games can’t be overlooked.
Chicago counters with Jameson Taillon (11-7, 3.68 ERA, 1.06 WHIP), who’s been steady all year. He keeps runners off base and has thrived in big moments at Wrigley.
It’s veteran savvy vs. steady consistency.
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs bottom line: If Darvish can find his best stuff, San Diego has a chance to steal it. But if Taillon settles in early, the Cubs could feed off the home crowd and slam the door.
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Baseball Betting Trends
- The Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 games straight-up.
- They have covered the run line in 4 of their last 5 games.
- The total has gone under in 3 of the Cubs’ last 5 games.
- Also, the Padres have won 4 of their last 5 games straight-up.
- The Padres have covered the run line in 3 of their last 5 games.
- Additionally, the total has gone under in 3 of the Padres’ last 5 games.
Today’s NL Wild Card Game 3 MLB Free Pick – UNDER 7.5
Both the Cubs and Padres have been in solid form, winning four of their last five games apiece. Yet the totals tell another story, with each side seeing the under cash in three of their last five outings, pointing to pitching and defense driving results.
Their recent head-to-head matchups reinforce that trend, with the first two games of this Wild Card series finishing 3-0 and 3-1. Offense has been hard to come by, and that fits with both clubs’ strengths on the mound.
With the Cubs ranking third in ERA and the Padres ninth, it sets up as another grinder at Wrigley Field.
Furthermore, Chicago’s home park often plays smaller, but the current setup with overcast skies and a light breeze should help pitchers even more. Neither lineup has shown much ability to string together big innings in this matchup.
Considering the consistent under trend, elite pitching, and quiet bats so far, the best angle for Game 3 is under 7.5 runs.
I’m of the opinion we’ll get another low-scoring, tense elimination game between these two ballclubs.
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MLB Betting Tweet Of The Day
Chicago doesn’t come to play, we come to fight. pic.twitter.com/6ROnYPqjqz
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 30, 2025
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