Free MLB Pick: Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds
Looking for San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Padres taking on the Diamondbacks on Friday, September 27th, 2024 at Chase Field, in Arizona, AZ. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Padres Diamondbacks free pick.
2024 MLB Handicapping – San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
(91-68) San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71)
Date: Friday, September 27th
Time: 9:40 ET
Venue: Chase Field Phoenix, AZ
Projected Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish vs. Merrill Kelly
MLB Moneyline Odds: Padres +110 | Diamondbacks -132 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Padres +1.5 | Diamondbacks -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 9
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Padres vs. Diamondbacks Gameday
At 9:40 PM ET, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the San Diego Padres at Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ. The Diamondbacks are the favorites in this NL West matchup, with a money line payout of -132 compared to the Padres’ +110.
Yu Darvish will take the mound for the Padres, while Merrill Kelly will start for the Diamondbacks. The over/under line is set at 9 runs, with the over paying out at -106 compared to the under at -115.
San Diego Padres
San Diego is 91-68 overall, putting them four games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. The Padres have dropped two straight games, losing the final two games of their series vs. the Dodgers. In the NL West, they have gone 25-24 this year.
At home, the Padres are 45-36 and have gone 46-32 on the road. As the favorite, San Diego is 60-43 this year and 31-25 as the underdog. They have an overall series record of 30-16-6 this year.
San Diego closed out their series vs. the Dodgers with a 7-2 loss on the road. Heading into the game, the Padres were the slight favorite at -110 on the money line. Things started off well for the Padres, as they got on the board with a run in the 5th inning but gave up the lead right away as the Dodgers scored five times in the bottom of the 5th.
Joe Musgrove put together a good start for the Padres, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up just two earned runs, and striking out six. However, he took the loss, as the Padres’s offense scored only two runs. Manny Machado was hot at the plate, going 3/4 with a run scored, but the Padres didn’t have another player with more than one hit.
Padres Gambling
The San Diego Padres are on the road today against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. The Padres have an over/under record of 81-74 this season, and their games have had an average combined run total of 8.8. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs this season, the Padres have a record of 6-4. Overall, only 9.4% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher.
San Diego is 49-29 against the run line on the road this season, with an average run margin of 1.1 runs per game. The Padres have covered the run line in three straight games as an underdog and are 39-17 against the run line in those situations this season.
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Padres Stats
The San Diego Padres have been one of the top offensive teams in the league this season. They lead the league in batting average at .264 and have the fewest strikeouts per game at 6.0. Their OPS of .746 ranks 5th in the league. At home, they are scoring 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. Their top hitters for the season have been Manny Machado, who leads the team with 29 home runs and 104 RBI, and Luis Arraez, who is hitting .312 with 45 RBI. In their last 8 games, Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting .303 with 3 home runs, while Manny Machado is hitting .300 with 3 home runs.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona is seven games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, and they are 88-71 overall. The Diamondbacks are 27-22 against other teams in the NL West. Today, they host the Padres, who are 4.0 games behind the Dodgers and just ahead of the Diamondbacks in the NL West.
At home, the Diamondbacks are 43-35 this year, and they are 45-36 on the road. As the favorite, Arizona has gone 52-32 and 36-39 as the underdog. They will be looking to get back on track today, as they lost their most recent series vs. the Giants.
Pavin Smith was hot at the plate in the Diamondbacks’s most recent game vs. the Giants, going 3/3 with three RBIs and a homer. The Diamondbacks really broke things open with a three-run 2nd inning and added another three runs in the 4th. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Diamondbacks were at -257 at home.
Zac Gallen started for the Diamondbacks, going six innings and giving up just one run on two hits. He also issued only two walks and struck out 11 Giants batters. Arizona’s bullpen closed things out with two scoreless innings, and the Diamondbacks’s offense added another two runs in the 8th to pick up the 8-2 win.
Diamondbacks Gambling
Arizona has been a high-scoring team this season, with a combined run average of 10.4 runs per game. The Diamondbacks have hit the over in 91 of their 151 games this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs. When the line is set at 9 runs, Arizona has hit the over in 19 of 34 games. The over has hit in two straight games for the Diamondbacks.
When the Diamondbacks win, they win big, with an average run margin of 4.2 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.8 runs per game. As a result, their run line record is just 83-76, with a run line record of 35-43 at home and 48-33 on the road. They are 36-48 against the run line as the favorite and 47-28 as the underdog.
Diamondbacks Stats
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the best offensive team in the league this season, leading the MLB in runs per game at 5.5. Their offense has been especially potent at home, where they average 5.7 runs per game. Their batting average of .263 is 2nd in the league, and their OBP of .337 and OPS of .777 are both tops in the league. Ketel Marte has been one of their top hitters, hitting .294 on the season and .333 over his last 5 games, with 2 home runs and 3 RBI in that span. Eugenio Suárez has also been a key contributor, leading the team with 98 RBI this season.
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Padres Diamondbacks Pitching
Right-hander Yu Darvish gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Diamondbacks on the road. Darvish has made 15 starts this season and has a record of 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, opponents are batting .211 off Darvish this season. He has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 8.72 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Darvish finished with a no-decision, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs on nine hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Right-hander Merrill Kelly is getting the start for the Diamondbacks today as he faces the Padres at home. He has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 5-0 with a 3.71 ERA. Looking back at his last outing, Kelly didn’t give up a run in five innings of work against the Brewers. He ended up with the win in that outing. Kelly has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. Opponents are batting .226 off Kelly this season, and he has allowed a total of 11 home runs. Kelly has made five quality starts this year.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Baseball Betting Trends
- The Padres head into the game having gone 6-4 straight-up in their last ten games on the road.
- The Padres they are 5-5 vs. the runline in their previous ten games on the road.
- Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 5-5 over their last ten home games (straight-up).
- Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have a 6-4 mark vs. the runline across their last ten home games.
- Also, the Padres are 2-1 in their last three games as the favorite. On the other hand, they are 2-1 as the underdog (last 3).
- The Diamondbacks have a record of 1-2 across their last three games when favored. As the underdog, they are 1-2 in their last three games.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 4* Free MLB Betting Pick:
There are a few ways you could look to bet on this game, but we are recommending that you take the Diamondbacks on the money line at -132. We have the Diamondbacks winning this one by a score of 7-3, giving us a little bit of wiggle room with the over/under line sitting at 9 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Merrill Kelly finishing with five strikeouts compared to Yu Darvish with six. Darvish has some solid projections, but we have Kelly finishing with a better ERA and getting the win 12th among starters.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
MLB Betting Tweet Of The Day
A certified Gallen Gem. 💎 pic.twitter.com/uoYMRRrhiU
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 26, 2024
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