Free MLB Pick: Pirates vs. Braves Odds
Looking for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Pirates taking on the Braves on 9/28 at Truist Park, in Atlanta. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Pirates Braves free pick.
2025 MLB Handicapping – Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves
(71-90) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves (75-86)
Date: Sep 28, 2025
Time: 3:15 PM ET
Venue: Truist Park in Atlanta, GA
Projected Starting Pitchers: Johan Oviedo vs. Charlie Morton
MLB Moneyline Odds: Pirates +170 | Braves -205 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Pirates +1.5 | Braves -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 7.5
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Pirates vs. Braves Gameday
As we look ahead, the Pittsburgh Pirates roll into Truist Park riding a two-game win streak. They sit at 71-90, good for fifth in the NL Central, but their recent form has been encouraging with six victories in their last 10 games.
Momentum has tilted slightly in their favor as the season winds down.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves are trying to snap a three-game skid. They enter with a 75-86 record, holding fourth in the NL East. Despite the current slump, they’ve also posted seven wins in their last 10, which shows flashes of promise when things click.
Interestingly, Pittsburgh has had Atlanta’s number lately. The Pirates have won the last three regular-season meetings, outscoring the Braves by an average of three runs.
In fact, they’re 4-1 in the last five head-to-head games, which I think could give them a real confidence boost heading into today’s matchup, wanting to finish strong.
Weather should be mild with scattered clouds and a light breeze. First pitch is set for 3:15 PM ET on SN PT, as both clubs look to wrap up the season on a positive note.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Odds & Last 5
Oddsmakers still lean toward Atlanta despite recent results. The Braves are listed as -205 moneyline favorites, with the Pirates at +170. On the runline, the Braves are -1.5 at +103, while Pittsburgh sits at +1.5 (-125).
The betting market clearly believes in the home team’s ability to bounce back.
However, Pittsburgh has had the upper hand lately. They’ve won the last two meetings, including a 3-1 victory where Bubba Chandler delivered 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball.
The Pirates piled up 10 hits, including a homer, proving they’ve been able to spark their offense against Atlanta pitching.
Conversely, the Braves have dropped three straight overall. Their most recent loss came in that 3-1 setback, where Spencer Strider allowed three runs over six innings.
While Strider’s numbers weren’t disastrous, the lack of offensive support told the story.
Atlanta has shown earlier this season they can turn things around, but they need it quickly.
Braves Stats
Firstly, Atlanta will be eager to flip their recent momentum. Losses to both the Pirates and Nationals exposed inconsistencies, although they did pull off a 3-2 win over Washington on September 23rd. That result offers a reminder this club can still grind out close games.
From an offensive standpoint, the Braves are middle-of-the-pack. Their .245 batting average ranks 12th, while their .319 on-base percentage is 10th. A .399 slugging percentage places them 12th as well, reflecting decent but not dominant hitting.
Matt Olson leads the team with 29 homers, ranking 16th league-wide, and his 96 runs scored have been crucial. Ozzie Albies has also been reliable, appearing in 157 games and producing 74 runs with 74 RBIs.
While those numbers aren’t eye-popping, they show steadiness in a long season.
Pitching has been more volatile. The Braves’ staff ERA is 4.38, ranking 22nd.
Yet the rotation has provided 69 quality starts, tied for 4th in MLB, proving there’s strength when things go right. The bullpen has been shakier, though, with 21 blown saves also ranking 4th.
Finally, Olson’s .271 average and .481 slugging underline his effectiveness, while Albies’ versatility has kept the lineup balanced.
Still, the Braves will need more than two bats to pull out of their funk.
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Pirates Stats
On the flip side, Pittsburgh’s bats have struggled at times. Their .232 batting average ranks 17th, and their .351 slugging percentage ranks 25th. Power has been lacking as well, with just 117 home runs, good for 28th in MLB.
What’s kept them afloat is pitching. The Pirates sport a 3.76 ERA, ranking 7th overall, and opponents hit just .235 against them, which ranks 6th. Limiting damage has been a strength, even though they’ve surrendered 152 home runs — the third most in the league.
Recently, Pittsburgh has been rolling. They’ve taken four of their last five, including back-to-back wins over Atlanta.
Spencer Horwitz and Henry Davis have stepped up, with Horwitz blasting two homers in one contest to spark the lineup.
As for veteran leadership, Andrew McCutchen still contributes with 13 HRs and 57 RBIs.
Horwitz’s .273 average and 55 runs scored add depth, giving the Pirates some offensive stability when it matters.
Let us know in the comments below! Who do you have in this Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves showdown?
Pirates vs. Braves Pitching Matchup
Johan Oviedo will start for the Pirates, carrying a 3.57 ERA with a 2-0 record. His 1.22 WHIP shows he’s been efficient at limiting baserunners. Consistency remains the key for him, but the tools are there to silence opposing bats.
Atlanta counters with Charlie Morton. He’s had a rocky year, posting a 5.89 ERA and a 9-11 record.
His WHIP of 1.57 reflects control issues and too many free passes, often leading to crooked numbers.
That said, Morton’s veteran presence still matters. If he can establish command early, his strikeout ability could keep Atlanta in it.
However, if Pittsburgh’s lineup stays patient, they could take advantage of his mistakes and extend their streak against the Braves.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Baseball Betting Trends
- The Braves have lost four of their last five games straight-up.
- In their last five games, the Braves have hit the under in three contests.
- The Braves have covered the run line in two of their last five games.
- Also, the Pirates have won four of their last five games straight-up.
- The Pirates have hit the over in three of their last five games.
- In their last five games, the Pirates have covered the run line three times.
Pirates vs Braves Prediction: Under 7.5
The Braves’ lineup hasn’t been clicking, with three of their last five games cashing the under. Because of that, it’s hard to trust them to suddenly produce a big number against a Pirates squad that’s been playing solid ball lately.
Additionally, even with Pittsburgh winning four of their last five, the scoreboard hasn’t been lighting up.
In fact, four of the last five head-to-head matchups between these two teams have stayed under the total.
Moreover, Atlanta’s pitching staff has done its part to keep games tight, which adds weight to this angle. The Pirates, while winning games, don’t exactly profile as a team that can consistently push a total over on their own.
Given the current form of both offenses and the head-to-head trends, the under 7.5 is the recommended play. This matchup shapes up as another low-scoring grinder rather than a slugfest.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
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MLB Betting Tweet Of The Day
On the board first courtesy of the Big Bear!#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/G0z2wpVN1e
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) September 27, 2025
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