Free MLB Pick: Phillies vs. Braves Odds
Looking for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Phillies taking on the Braves on Friday, July 5th, 2024 at Truist Park, in Atlanta, GA. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Phillies Braves free pick.
2024 MLB Handicapping – Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
(57-30) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves (47-38)
Date: Friday, July 5th
Time: 7:20 ET
Venue: Truist Park Atlanta, GA
Projected Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs. Max Fried
MLB Moneyline Odds: Phillies +123 | Braves -144 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Phillies +1.5 | Braves -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 7.5
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Phillies vs. Braves Gameday
It’s a hot one in Atlanta tonight, as the Braves host the Phillies in an NL East showdown. First pitch is set for 7:20 PM at Truist Park, with Aaron Nola taking the mound for the Phillies against Max Fried for the Braves. The current temperature is 96 degrees with broken clouds overhead.
Looking at the odds, the Braves are currently favored at -144 on the money line, while the Phillies are sitting at +123. The over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, with the over paying out at -118 compared to the under at -103.
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia is 57-30 overall, good for a nine-game lead over the Braves in the NL East. The Phillies will be on the road for today’s game vs. the Braves, and they are 14-8 against other teams in the NL East. The Phillies have been playing well, as they have won two straight series and have an overall series record of 18-7-5.
At home, the Phillies have gone 33-14 this year, and they have been a solid team on the road as well, going 24-16. This season, the Phillies have been really good as the favorite, going 50-24, and they are 7-6 as the underdog. So far, they have been really good in night games, going 37-15.
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The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cubs with a 10-2 loss. Philadelphia was actually the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Cubs scored five times in the 4th.
Cristopher Sánchez got the start for the Phillies and took the loss. He only lasted four innings, giving up seven earned runs. Offensively, the Phillies only had two fewer hits than the Cubs but scored just two runs. Nick Castellanos had a homer in the 4th but went just 2/4.
Phillies Gambling
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road today against the Atlanta Braves with the over/under line set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Phillies games this season is 8.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 39-43. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 7-10. Overall, 67.8% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their current over streak is at four games.
When the Phillies win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.7 runs per game. That’s helped them to a 46-41 run line record, including a 22-18 mark on the road. They’ve been the favorite in most games, going 39-35 against the run line in those contests.
Phillies Stats
The Philadelphia Phillies have been one of the top offensive teams in the league this season. They are 5th in runs per game and 3rd in batting average. Their offense has been especially potent at home, where they lead the league in runs per game. Bryce Harper has been one of the team’s top hitters, with a .303 batting average and 20 home runs on the season. Alec Bohm has also been a key contributor, leading the team with 70 RBI. However, Bohm has struggled recently, hitting just .147 over his last 9 games. The Phillies have several players on hitting streaks, including Harper, who has hit safely in 12 straight games.
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Atlanta Braves
With a record of 47-38, the Braves are nine games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Atlanta is 2nd in the NL East and has an overall division record of 12-11. The Braves will host the Phillies today, and they are 27-16 at home this season.
Atlanta has gone 4-6 across their last ten games and dropped two of three in their series vs. the Giants. So far, the Braves have gone 20-22 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves are 44-32 and just 3-6 as the underdog. Today’s game will be the start of a new series for the Braves, who have an overall series record of 16-11-2.
Heading into their last game vs. the Giants, the Braves closed out the series with a 4-2 loss. Atlanta was the slight favorite at -128 on the money line. Things started off well for the Braves, as they got on the board with two runs in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Giants scored three times in the top of the 4th.
Charlie Morton took the loss for the Braves, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on five hits. He also issued two walks and hit a batter. The Braves’ offense scored their only other run in the 6th.
Braves Gambling
The Braves are at home today against the Phillies, and the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. Atlanta’s games have averaged 7.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 29-52. Their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs, and when the line has been set at 7.5 runs, the over/under record is 4-10. Overall, 78.8% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their current under streak is at 2 games.
When the Braves win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.7 runs per game. However, when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.2 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 40-45, with a run line record of 19-24 at home and 21-21 on the road. As the favorite, they are 35-41 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are 5-4.
Braves Stats
The Atlanta Braves have been an average offensive team this season, ranking 16th in runs per game with 4.3. Their home and road splits are identical, with 4.3 runs per game in each scenario. Their batting average of .243 is 13th in the league, and their OPS of .708 is 13th as well. Marcell Ozuna has been their top hitter this season, leading the team in batting average (.296), OBP (.379), home runs (21), and RBIs (67). Austin Riley and Jarred Kelenic have been hot at the plate recently, with Riley on a 3-game hitting streak and Kelenic hitting .314 over his last 9 games.
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Phillies Braves Pitching
Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Braves on the road. Nola has made 17 starts this season and has a record of 9-4 with a 3.43 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Nola has a WHIP of 1.04 and opponents are batting .213 this season. In his 17 starts, Nola has turned in 12 quality starts and is averaging 8.28 strikeouts per nine innings. Nola’s most recent outing came vs. the Marlins, where he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Max Fried gets the start for the Braves today vs. the Phillies and comes into the game with a record of 7-3 and an ERA of 2.91. So far this season, he has made 16 starts, and opponents are batting .211 off the left-hander. Fried has turned in nine quality starts this year and has a WHIP of 1.09. In his last outing, Fried finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on six hits vs. the Pirates. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts. Fried has been much better at home, coming in with a 3.99 ERA compared to 6.47 on the road.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Baseball Betting Trends
- The Phillies head into the game having gone 5-5 straight-up in their last ten games on the road.
- The Phillies they are 5-5 vs. the runline in their previous ten games on the road.
- Conversely, the Braves are 4-6 over their last ten home games (straight-up).
- Furthermore, the Braves have a 4-6 mark vs. the runline across their last ten home games.
- Also, the Phillies are 2-1 in their last three games as the favorite. On the other hand, they are 1-2 as the underdog (last 3).
- The Braves have a record of 1-2 across their last three games when favored. As the underdog, they are 0-3 in their last three games.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves 4* Free MLB Betting Pick:
Our prediction for this Phillies vs. Braves matchup is that the Braves will pick up a 4-3 win at home. Given that they are at -144 on the money line, this is the best way to go about betting on this game.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Max Fried finishing with five strikeouts compared to Aaron Nola with five. However, Fried is predicted to go one more inning than Nola, and he has a better chance of picking up the win.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
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