Free MLB Pick: Mets vs. Phillies Odds
Looking for New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Mets taking on the Phillies on Saturday, October 5th, 2024 at Citizens Bank Park, in Philadelphia, PA. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Mets Phillies free pick.
2024 MLB Handicapping – New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
2024 NLDS Series Preview
(89-73) New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)
Date: Saturday, October 5th
Time: 4:08 ET
Venue: Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia, PA
Projected Starting Pitchers: Kodai Senga vs. Zack Wheeler
MLB Moneyline Odds: Mets +158 | Phillies -185 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Mets +1.5 | Phillies -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 7
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Mets vs. Phillies Gameday
It’s a beautiful night for baseball in Philadelphia, where the Phillies will host the Mets in an NL East matchup. First pitch is set for 4:08 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park, with the game airing on FOX. The Phillies are the favorites in this one, with a money line of -185 compared to the Mets’ +158.
On the mound for the Mets is Kodai Senga, while Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies. The over/under line is set at 7 runs, with the over paying out at -115 compared to the under at -104.
New York Mets
The Mets head into the NL Divisional Round with an overall record of 89-73, which has them six games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. New York will kick off their series vs. the Phillies on the road, and they are 30-22 in divisional games this year. The Mets have an overall series record of 28-18-8 this season.
At home, the Mets were 46-35 this year, and they are just above .500 at 43-38 on the road. This year, the Mets have been good as the favorite, going 59-39, and they are 32-35 as the underdog. New York closed out the regular season by taking two of three from the Brewers.
Pete Alonso and the Mets are coming off a big 4-2 win over the Brewers to close out their series. Alonso got the Mets on the board with a homer in the 1st inning and went 3 for 4 with three RBIs. The Mets really broke things open with a three-run 9th inning. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Mets were the slight underdog at +106.
Jose Quintana put together a good start for the Mets, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out five Brewers batters. Edwin Diaz picked up the save, and David Peterson closed things out in the 9th.
Mets Gambling
With the Mets and Phillies set to face off in the NL Divisional Round, the over/under line for today’s game is set at 7 runs. This season, the Mets have played in 152 games with over/under lines higher than 7 runs, and their games have averaged a combined 9 runs per game. Overall, the over/under record for Mets games this season is 83-77.
When the Mets are favored, they are 45-53 against the run line. When they are the underdog, they are 39-28. Their average run differential in wins is +3.7, while in losses, it is -3.5. Overall, they are 84-81 against the run line this season.
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Mets Stats
When it comes to the Mets’ offense, they have been solid this season, ranking 7th in runs per game at 4.7. They have been consistent both at home and on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road and 4.7 runs per game at home. Their power has been evident, as they rank 6th in total home runs with 207. Looking at individual performances, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the team’s top hitters this season. Lindor is hitting .273 with 33 home runs and 91 RBIs, while Alonso has a .240 average with 34 home runs and 88 RBIs. In terms of recent performances, Brandon Nimmo is on a 6-game hitting streak, and Lindor and Alonso have been productive over their last few games.
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Philadelphia Phillies
With an overall record of 95-67, the Phillies won the NL East by six games over the Mets. The Mets and Phillies will kick off their NL Divisional Round series with the Phillies holding the top spot in the NL East. Philadelphia’s record includes a mark of 29-23 in divisional games this year.
At home, the Phillies were 54-27 this year, and they were just above .500 at 41-40 on the road. As the favorite, the Phillies were 82-49 this year, and they were 13 games under .500 as the underdog. The Phillies’ overall series record is 27-18-6 this year.
The Phillies’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Nationals, closing out their series with a 6-3 win. After allowing one run to the Nationals in the bottom of the first, the Phillies responded with two runs of their own. Philadelphia went on to add another two runs in the 5th inning.
Aaron Nola got the start for the Phillies, going five innings and giving up three earned runs on nine hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win.
Phillies Gambling
With the over/under line set at 7 runs, the Phillies have seen the over hit in five straight games. Their games have averaged 9.0 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 78-75 overall. The over has hit in 91.4% of their games this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs.
Philadelphia has a run line record of 78-84 this season, including a 37-44 mark at home. Their average run margin is +0.7 runs per game, with a +1.1 run differential at home and +0.3 on the road. They are 41-40 against the run line on the road and 62-69 as the favorite.
Phillies Stats
The Philadelphia Phillies have been a strong offensive team this season, ranking 5th in runs per game (4.8) and 4th in batting average (.257). At home, they’ve been even better, averaging 5.1 runs per game, which is 2nd in the league. Their top hitters this season have been Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Harper is hitting .285 with a .373 on-base percentage, while Schwarber has 38 home runs and 104 RBIs. In terms of recent performances, Nick Castellanos has been hot, hitting .500 over his last 7 games. Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber have also been solid contributors over the last week.
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Mets Phillies Pitching
Kodai Senga will be making his second start of the season for the Mets, and he will be on the road to take on the Phillies. In his first start of the season, Senga picked up a win, going 5 1/3 innings and striking out 9 batters. He did give up a pair of homers in that outing, though.
Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces his former team, the Mets. Wheeler has made 32 starts this year and has a record of 16-7 with an ERA of 2.56. So far, he has turned in 26 quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a homer. In his last outing, Wheeler went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and finished with a no-decision. Wheeler has been pitching well lately, as he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last three outings. The right-hander has a strikeout total of 224 this season, which ranks third in the league.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Baseball Betting Trends
- The Mets head into the game having gone 4-6 straight-up in their last ten games on the road.
- The Mets they are 5-5 vs. the runline in their previous ten games on the road.
- Conversely, the Phillies are 3-7 over their last ten home games (straight-up).
- Furthermore, the Phillies have a 3-7 mark vs. the runline across their last ten home games.
- Also, the Mets are 1-2 in their last three games as the favorite. On the other hand, they are 2-1 as the underdog (last 3).
- The Phillies have a record of 1-2 across their last three games when favored. As the underdog, they are 1-2 in their last three games.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies 4* Free MLB Betting Pick: OVER
There are a few ways you could look to bet on this Mets vs. Phillies matchup, but our top pick would be to take the over, as we see this one finishing with a 6-4 win for the Phillies. With the line sitting at seven runs, there is a little bit of wiggle room, and we would take the over at -115.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we actually have Mets starter Kodai Senga finishing with more strikeouts than Phillies starter Zack Wheeler. However, Wheeler is projected to go six innings, while Senga is projected to go just five.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
MLB Betting Tweet Of The Day
Enough talk.#RedOctober pic.twitter.com/KLEfxAPfDp
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) October 5, 2024
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