Free MLB Pick: Mets vs. Marlins Odds
Looking for New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Mets taking on the Marlins on 9/28 at loanDepot Park, in Miami. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Mets Marlins free pick.
2025 MLB Handicapping – New York Mets vs Miami Marlins
(83-78) New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins (78-83)
Date: Sep 28, 2025
Time: 3:10 PM ET
Venue: loanDepot Park in Miami, FL
Projected Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea vs. Edward Cabrera
MLB Moneyline Odds: Mets -126 | Marlins +106 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Mets -1.5 | Marlins +1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 8
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Mets vs. Marlins Gameday
Today, the New York Mets square off against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park in Miami. The Mets arrive with an 83-78 record, while the Marlins counter at 78-83. First pitch is scheduled for Sunday, September 28, 2025, at 3:10 PM ET on FDSFL.
The Mets, managed by Carlos Mendoza, are locked into second place in the NL East. They’re coming off a dominant 5-0 win over the Marlins and are 5-5 in their last 10.
With the season finale here, New York is motivated to finish on the front foot.
Meanwhile, Clayton McCullough’s Marlins sit third in the division. They’ve been trending upward with a 7-3 record over their last 10, showing resilience despite the loss to the Mets.
At home, however, their 37-43 mark has been disappointing, and they’ll want to send fans off with a stronger effort.
Head-to-head, the clubs have split the season series 5-5. Interestingly, the Mets have outscored Miami by just 0.4 runs per game, underlining how tight these games have been.
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New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Odds & Last 5
Sportsbooks list the Mets as slim favorites at -124, while the Marlins are priced at +105. On the runline, New York sits -1.5 at +135. The total is posted at 8.0 runs, with the Over -117 and Under -104, suggesting the market is torn on scoring potential.
The Mets blanked Miami 5-0 in their most recent outing behind Clay Holmes, who spun six scoreless innings. That came one night after the Marlins claimed a 6-2 victory, showcasing the tug-of-war nature of this rivalry. With everything even, the rubber match becomes a battle of momentum.
Looking at the last five overall, the Mets have alternated wins and losses, while Miami has strung together more consistency.
That trend could play a role for bettors weighing form versus pitching matchups.
Marlins Stats
Offensively, Miami owns a .250 team batting average, good for 8th in the league. Yet their .313 OBP ranks just 15th, and their .393 slugging percentage places them 17th. While contact is steady, power has lagged behind.
In fact, the Marlins rank 25th in home runs with only 154. However, they’ve been excellent at finding the gaps, sitting 6th in doubles with 269. In addition, their 135 stolen bases also rank 6th, proving they can pressure defenses with speed.
On the mound, Miami posts a 4.62 ERA, ranking 25th. Opponents are batting .248 against them (13th), but the rotation has provided just 37 quality starts, placing 23rd. Allowing 199 home runs hasn’t helped their run prevention either.
Recently, the Marlins suffered a 5-0 defeat to New York but bounced back the night before with a 6-2 win. Players like Xavier Edwards, who’s hitting .282, continue to fuel the offense. His ability to get on base has been critical in keeping rallies alive.
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Mets Stats
The Mets’ lineup remains one of the more dangerous in baseball. They rank 5th in OBP at .325 and also 5th in home runs with 224. That combination of patience and power makes them a constant threat.
Pete Alonso headlines the group with 38 home runs and 126 RBIs. Francisco Lindor adds balance with 31 HRs and 86 RBIs, giving New York a balanced core of run producers. Both veterans have carried the team through offensive droughts.
In terms of recent form, the 5-0 win over Miami was a showcase of strong pitching and timely hitting. Yet inconsistency still lingers, as shown in their 6-2 defeat to the same opponent one game earlier.
Bettors know the Mets can look elite one night and flat the next.
As for pitching, New York carries a team ERA of 4.04, ranking 18th. However, their 1,381 strikeouts rank 10th, highlighting swing-and-miss ability.
That strikeout potential becomes especially important in low-scoring contests.
What do you think? Drop your predictions below for this New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins clash and let us know your best bet.
Mets vs. Marlins Pitching Matchup
Sean Manaea gets the nod for New York. He’s 2-4 with a 5.80 ERA but owns a 1.22 WHIP. That control shows he can keep runners off the bases, though big innings have inflated his ERA.
Across the field, Edward Cabrera starts for Miami. He’s 7-7 with a 3.66 ERA and also sports a 1.22 WHIP. His ability to navigate traffic more effectively has kept runs off the board.
If Cabrera establishes his fastball command early, Miami could tilt the matchup in their favor.
Conversely, if Alonso or Lindor find a mistake pitch, New York’s power might decide the finale.
Either way, with both teams splitting the season series, Sunday promises a competitive ending.
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Baseball Betting Trends
- The Marlins have lost four of their last five games straight-up.
- The Marlins have failed to score more than one run in three of their last five games.
- The Mets have hit the over in three of their last five games.
- Also, the Mets have won three of their last five games straight-up.
- Additionally, the Marlins have hit the under in three of their last five games.
- The Mets have covered the run line in three of their last five games.
Mets vs Marlins Prediction: Under 8
The Marlins’ offense has been ice cold, scoring more than a single run in only two of their last five contests. Because of that, it’s hard to see them suddenly breaking out against a Mets team that has been locking in when it matters.
Moreover, while the Mets have seen the over cash in three of their last five, their matchups with Miami have painted a very different picture.
The last three head-to-head meetings between these clubs have all stayed under the total.
Furthermore, Miami’s lack of consistent production makes it tough to trust them to push this game past the number. The Mets have been covering the run line with solid pitching and timely hitting, showing they can control pace without allowing much scoring.
All things considered, the under 8 looks like the sharp play. With Miami’s bats struggling and New York’s defense trending steady, another low-scoring affair feels like the most likely outcome.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
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MLB Betting Tweet Of The Day
WALK IT OFF JACOB BERRY 🫨🫨🫨 https://t.co/5xsKTTLrJn
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) September 28, 2025
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