Free MLB Pick: Brewers vs. Padres Odds
Looking for Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Brewers taking on the Padres on Friday, June 21st, 2024 at PETCO Park, in San Diego, CA. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Brewers Padres free pick.
2024 MLB Handicapping – Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres
(44-31) Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres (39-40)
Date: Friday, June 21st
Time: 9:40 ET
Venue: PETCO Park San Diego, CA
Projected Starting Pitchers: Colin Rea vs. Dylan Cease
MLB Moneyline Odds: Brewers +129 | Padres -154 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Brewers +1.5 | Padres -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 7.5
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At 9:40 PM ET in San Diego, the Padres will host the Brewers at PETCO Park. The weather is expected to be 72 degrees with a few clouds. Dylan Cease will be on the mound for the Padres, while the Brewers will counter with Colin Rea.
Currently, the Padres are favored to win, with a money line payout of -154 compared to the Brewers at +129. The over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, with the over paying out at -114 compared to the under at -107.
San Diego picked up a 7-6 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 1st inning, scoring four of their seven runs. As for the Brewers, they scored two of their six runs in the 9th inning.
Fernando Tatis Jr. was the difference for the Padres, as he went 4/5 with a home run and two RBIs. Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth each drove in two runs for San Diego’s offense.
Adam Mazur only went 4 2/3 innings for the Padres but gave up just three hits and three earned runs. Jeremiah Estrada got the win out of the bullpen, and Mark Melancon got the save. Joel Payamps had a rough outing for the Brewers, taking the loss.
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Milwaukee leads the NL Central by 6.5 games over the Cardinals, heading into today’s game at 44-31 overall. The Brewers are 18-9 against other teams in the NL Central. They have been good on both the road and at home, going 22-12 at home and 22-19 on the road this season.
As the road underdog, the Brewers have gone 14-12 this season, and they are 19-17 overall as the underdog. Milwaukee has lost three straight games as the underdog, and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games overall. So far, they have an overall series record of 15-7-2 and have won four straight series.
When the Milwaukee Brewers play on the road, the over/under line is typically set at 7.5 runs. Their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 39-33. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 10-4. Overall, 74.7% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs.
Brewers Gambling
When the Brewers are on the road, they have been a solid bet on the run line, going 24-17. They have covered the run line in three straight road games and have an average run margin of +0.8 away from home. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 24-12, compared to 15-24 as the favorite.
Brewers Stats
The Milwaukee Brewers have been a solid offensive team this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game, which ranks 6th in the league. Their home offense has been particularly strong, as they average 5.2 runs per game at home, which is 3rd in the league. The Brewers have a good team batting average of .252, which is 6th in the league, and their on-base percentage of .329 ranks 4th. They are also 3rd in the league in walks. Two of their top hitters this season have been William Contreras and Willy Adames, who have been key contributors in terms of home runs and RBIs. Christian Yelich and Rhys Hoskins are currently on hitting streaks, with Yelich hitting .353 over his last 9 games.
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San Diego is 39-40 overall and trails the Dodgers by nine games in the NL West. The Padres are also 3rd in the NL West, and they are 14-15 in divisional games this year. The Padres have won two straight games, and they have won four straight at home, where they are 19-21 this year.
As the favorite, the Padres are 25-23 this year and 14-17 as the underdog. San Diego’s overall series record is 13-10-3, and they had lost two straight series before taking the first game of this series vs. the Brewers.
San Diego Padres games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 39-39. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 10-13. Overall, 62.0% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.
Padres Gambling
San Diego has been a solid run line bet overall this season, going 40-39, but they have been much better on the road, where they are 27-12. They have a positive run differential on the road, averaging 0.7 more runs per game than their opponents. They have been a much worse bet at home, going just 13-27 on the run line, with a negative run differential of 0.4 runs per game.
Padres Stats
The San Diego Padres have been a solid offensive team this season, ranking 13th in runs per game with 4.4. Their batting average of .258 is 2nd in the league, and their OBP of .323 is 7th. They are 9th in total home runs with 83. Jurickson Profar has been on a hot streak, hitting in 5 straight games. Manny Machado has also been hitting well, going 7 for 19 in his last 5 games.
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Brewers Padres Pitching
Milwaukee is sending right-hander Colin Rea to the mound today vs. the Padres. He has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 6-2 with an ERA of 3.29. Rea’s WHIP for the season is 1.23. In his 14 appearances, he has turned in five quality starts. Rea’s most recent outing came on June 16th, where he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on four hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Rea has been pitching well at home, with an ERA of 2.78 compared to 3.98 on the road.
Dylan Cease will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Mets, as he gets the start for the Padres today. In that start, Cease gave up seven earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work. He took the loss in the game. Before that outing, Cease had been pitching well, as he had given up three earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. Cease’s record for the season is 6-6, and his ERA is 3.95. Cease’s WHIP for the season is 1.07. Out of his 15 starts, Cease has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 11.01 strikeouts per nine innings.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres MLB Baseball Betting Trends
- The Brewers head into the game having gone 4-6 straight-up in their last ten games on the road.
- The Brewers they are 4-6 vs. the runline in their previous ten games on the road.
- Conversely, the Padres are 1-9 over their last ten home games (straight-up).
- Furthermore, the Padres have a 3-7 mark vs. the runline across their last ten home games.
- Also, the Brewers are 2-1 in their last three games as the favorite. On the other hand, they are 0-3 as the underdog (last 3).
- The Padres have a record of 1-2 across their last three games when favored. As the underdog, they are 2-1 in their last three games.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres 4* Free MLB Betting Pick:
Our prediction for today’s Brewers vs. Padres matchup is that the Padres will come out on top by a score of 4-2. With the money line payout for a Padres win sitting at -154, this is the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at some of the starting pitcher projections, we have Dylan Cease finishing with seven strikeouts, which is the fifth-best among today’s starters. As for Colin Rea, he is projected to finish with just four strikeouts, which is the third lowest.
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