Free AL Wild Card – Game 3 Pick: Tigers vs. Guardians Odds
Looking for Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Tigers taking on the Guardians on 10/2 at Progressive Field, in Cleveland. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Tigers Guardians free pick.
2025 MLB Handicapping – Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians
AL Wild Card – Game 3
(1-1) Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians (1-1)
Date: Oct 02, 2025
Time: 3:08 PM ET
Venue: Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH
Projected Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Slade Cecconi
MLB Moneyline Odds: Tigers -103 | Guardians -117 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Tigers -1.5 | Guardians +1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 7
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Tigers vs. Guardians Gameday
It all comes down to tonight at Progressive Field. The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians are tied 1-1 in this AL Wildcard series, and Game 3 will decide who advances and who goes home.
With overcast skies and a light breeze expected, the stage is set for a tense elimination matchup in Cleveland.
Detroit, led by A.J. Hinch, grinded out a 2-1 win in Game 1 behind Tarik Skubal’s brilliance, only to get punched back 6-1 in Game 2. Their 87-75 regular-season record and near-.500 road mark (41-40) showed a scrappy club, and that personality has carried into this series.
Cleveland, guided by Stephen Vogt, finished the regular season 88-74 and have leaned on their home strength (45-36). Their bats finally woke up in Game 2, with José Ramírez and company flexing some power.
With the series on the line, this rubber match is shaping up to be the kind of October drama Progressive Field hasn’t seen in a while.
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Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Odds & Last 5
Oddsmakers lean slightly toward the Guardians as -116 favorites, with Detroit close behind at -102. On the runline, Cleveland +1.5 sits at -207, while Detroit -1.5 pays +171. The total is set at 7 runs, shaded to the under (-113).
The results speak to the razor-thin margin: Detroit stole Game 1, 2-1, thanks to Skubal’s 14 K masterpiece, then Cleveland responded with a 6-1 beatdown in Game 2.
Both clubs are 3-2 over their last five overall, and this matchup has swung on who cashes in with men on base.
Today, one team walks away, the other starts winter early.
Guardians Stats
Cleveland’s offense has been streaky. They finished with a .226 average (19th), .295 OBP (21st), and .373 slugging (21st). Still, they did hit 168 homers (17th), and José Ramírez (.283, 30 HR, 103 runs) is the engine that makes this lineup go.
Kyle Manzardo’s 27 HR power and Gabriel Arias’ defense have been key supporting roles.
Pitching is the Guardians’ backbone. Their 3.70 ERA ranked 4th in MLB, with opponents hitting just .238 (9th). They gave up only 169 homers (6th) and struck out 1,381 hitters.
That depth has been on display — when the bats back it up, they’re a dangerous postseason squad.
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Tigers Stats
Detroit’s offense was steadier across the board: a .247 average (9th), .316 OBP (10th), and 198 homers (10th). Spencer Torkelson led the charge with 31 HR, while Gleyber Torres (.256, 16 HR) and Colt Keith added depth.
The staff posted a 3.97 ERA (16th), with a .240 batting average against (10th). They gave up 187 homers (13th) but had enough consistency to stay competitive.
Skubal’s Game 1 gem reminded everyone how high their ceiling is when the arms execute.
Their task is simple: get enough offense against a Guardians staff that usually doesn’t give much.
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Tigers vs. Guardians Pitching Matchup
Detroit gives the ball to Jack Flaherty (8-15, 4.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). He’s been inconsistent but has the swing-and-miss stuff to put hitters away. The Tigers will hope he finds early rhythm and avoids the long ball.
Cleveland counters with Slade Cecconi (7-7, 4.30 ERA, 1.19 WHIP). He’s shown poise, limiting base runners and piling up strikeouts when needed.
If he stays in command, the Guardians’ bullpen is set up to carry the rest.
It’s a true October toss-up: Flaherty’s volatility versus Cecconi’s steadiness.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians bottom line: With both clubs desperate and both fanbases on edge, expect a tense, low-scoring fight where one swing could decide who advances.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Baseball Betting Trends
- The Guardians have gone 3-2 straight up in their last five games.
- The Guardians’ games have hit the over in 3 of their last 5 outings.
- The Tigers are 2-3 straight up in their last five games.
- Also, the Tigers have seen the under hit in 3 of their last 5 games.
- In addition, the Guardians have covered the run line in 2 of their last 5 games.
- The Tigers have covered the run line in 2 of their last 5 games.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
Recent trends show a split, with the Guardians hitting the over in three of their last five while the Tigers have leaned under in three of theirs. That makes the total a key angle, and the head-to-head history between these two clubs gives us more clarity.
In fact, seven of their last ten regular-season meetings have stayed under, pointing to a matchup that usually favors pitching over offense. Detroit’s staff has been especially sharp, ranking fourth in ERA, which makes it tough for opponents to string together rallies.
When these teams meet, the bats often stay quieter than expected, and that trend has been consistent.
Cleveland’s pitching may not be elite, but sitting middle of the pack in ERA means they can still hold their own in a spot like this. With the Tigers’ arms setting the tone and history backing a lower-scoring outcome, the under remains the value side.
All told, the under 7.5 looks like the sharper play, supported by both recent form and long-term head-to-head trends.
My forecast says to expect another tight, low-scoring affair between these AL Central rivals.
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MLB Betting Tweet Of The Day
Today at 3:08 PM.
Do or die.#GuardsBall pic.twitter.com/rtOgsgC3PB
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) October 2, 2025
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