Free MLB Pick: Guardians vs. Yankees Odds
Looking for Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Free MLB playoff predictions? MLB betting sees the Guardians taking on the Yankees on Thursday, October 13th, 2022 at Yankee Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball playoff matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Guardians-Yankees free American League Divisional Series pick.
2022 MLB Playoff Handicapping
(0-1) Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees (1-0)
Date: Thursday, October 13th, 2022
Time: 7:37 PM ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY.
Projected Pitchers: Bieber (CLE), Cortes (NYY)
MLB Moneyline Odds: Guardians +112 / Yankees -136
MLB run line Betting Odds: Guardians +1.5 (-196) / Yankees -1.5 (+157)
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 6.0
Cleveland Guardians
Game 1 didn’t bring the Guardians much relief in their offensive struggles to start the 2022 playoffs. In 24 innings, Cleveland only managed 3 runs, all via the long ball including Tuesday night, scoring their only run on a Steven Kwan homerun.
Though Jose Ramirez’ 2-run bomb in Game 1 was ultimately the difference maker, the top of the order (1-3) has struggled to set the table, accruing 8 hits in 38 plate appearances (.210 BA).
The Guardians got here through their unorthodox approach at the plate, which is to make contact at elite rates. That hasn’t been the case so far. They’ve struck out 33 times in 33 innings, albeit against elite pitching, but that’s the nature of the playoffs. Hitting coach Chris Valaika will be preaching contact to all fields as they prepare for Game 2.
Shane Bieber pitched as well as Cleveland could have hoped in Game 1, recording 7.2 innings, surrendering only 3 hits and 1 ER while striking out 8 and now gets Game 2 in the Bronx.
The knock on Bieber this year and parts of last year was a drop in velocity. Where he was living around 95 mph with his fastball in 2020, he sits around 91 mph now. Bieber is still elite in limiting walks (93rd percentile), but has struggled in giving up hard hits (13th percentile).
The Yankees have the league’s third-highest hard hit % and second highest barrel %. Bieber will have to find ways to miss bats if the Guardians hope to even the series.
Provided they can get a lead, they should be able to hold it. The Guardians recorded a top-5 mark in both ERA and WHIP for their bullpen this season.
New York Yankees
After having a first round bye and watching the Wild Card series, the Yankees quickly kicked off their playoff campaign with a 4-1 win.
The long ball was working for the Yankees on Tuesday, with Bader (solo) and Rizzo (2-run) moving the scoreboard, while Josh Donaldson missed a homerun by about 3 inches. Quantrill was vulnerable to the long ball during the regular season (3.6 HR/9) but they now take on Bieber who was much better limiting bombs (1.17 HR/9).
Though the Yankees are known for their power, they don’t sacrifice walks. They led the majors with a 10.1 BB% and getting a pitcher into the stretch is generally a good way to put the pressure on.
Limiting Aaron Judge in the series is paramount, but Rizzo and Stanton are guys to keep an eye on as well.
Nestor Cortes is tabbed as the Game 2 starter and doesn’t sport a high velocity or spin rate on his fastball but wins by locating a 4-pitch mix. Baseball Savant shows a mediocre chase rate (65th percentile) which should play to the Guardians contact profile.
Cortes has done well limiting exit velocity (88.1 mph) and barrel % (81st percentile) so Cleveland will have to string together hits and work the count.
The Yankees did an excellent job thwarting Cleveland scoring opportunities with the double play, but Cortes more often than not induces a pop-out rather than a groundball. Per Baseball Savant, the MLB average for pop-ups is 7.1% while Cortes sits at 11.2%. If we compare GB%, Cortes (34.2%) sits well below the MLB average of 44.9%.
The Yankees like the Guardians, have an excellent bullpen. They managed to strand 75.5% of baserunners (4th) and lead the majors in induced-GB%.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees MLB Playoff Prediction:
The Guardians’ bats have been pretty quiet so far this postseason, but Cortes represents something they haven’t seen yet: a pitcher who wins by pitching to contact. Due to their lack of power, Cleveland relies on stringing together hits and walks to generate their runs and Cortes ranked in the top-10% of pitchers with an xERA of 2.70.
The Yankees have no shortage of power hitters. Being able to hit the equalizer in a deficit is a great ace up the sleeve and they’ve got the batting profile for it. Bieber has given up hard hits this year, which makes it a perfect matchup for the Yankees.
For Cleveland to win this game, they’ll have to solve Cortes who was excellent all season AND have Shane Bieber throw a second consecutive gem. It’s just asking for too much to go right for Cleveland so I will be siding with the Yankees to win Game 2.
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