Free Pick: Reds vs. Blue Jays Odds
Looking for Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Reds taking on the Blue Jays on 9/27 at Rogers Centre, in Toronto. This free MLB baseball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Reds Blue Jays matchup.
2026 MLB Handicapping – Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays
(75-86) Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays (78-83)
Date: Sep 27, 2026
Time: 3:07 PM ET
Venue: Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON
Projected Starting Pitchers: Brandon Williamson vs. Max Scherzer
MLB Moneyline Odds: Reds +150 | Blue Jays -180 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Reds +1.5 | Blue Jays -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 8.5
Here’s why I’m backing an OVER bet below in my Reds Blue Jays free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Reds vs. Blue Jays Gameday
The Cincinnati Reds and Toronto Blue Jays finish their seasons Sunday afternoon at Rogers Centre with the series tied at one game apiece. Cincinnati enters at 75-86, while Toronto is 78-83.
First pitch is scheduled for 3:07 PM ET.
Toronto grabbed Friday’s opener 6-5 before Cincinnati answered with a 5-1 victory Saturday. The first two games have given us a little of everything, from a one-run finish to the Reds controlling Game 2 behind their pitching.
One game left, no tomorrow on the schedule, and both clubs still have enough power to make the finale entertaining.
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Terry Francona’s Reds have won four of their last six, while Toronto has dropped seven of its last 10. Neither club is headed to October, but there are still plenty of individual numbers worth chasing before everybody packs up for the winter.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds & Last 5
Toronto is a sizable home favorite for the finale, sitting around -180 on the moneyline with Cincinnati approximately +150. The Blue Jays are -1.5 on the runline, while the total is 8.5.
The pitching matchup helps explain why that total deserves some attention.
Max Scherzer enters with an ERA north of six, while Brandon Williamson carries a 4.89 ERA into his final start. Neither starter has consistently kept opposing offenses quiet this season.
The series has already produced 17 runs through two games. Toronto won 6-5 Friday before Cincinnati responded with Saturday’s 5-1 victory.
Cincinnati also brings legitimate home-run potential into the finale, which makes laying a big price with Toronto considerably less appealing than the moneyline suggests.
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Blue Jays Stats
Toronto hasn’t produced the season it wanted offensively, but Kazuma Okamoto has supplied plenty of power. He enters the finale with 33 home runs and 92 RBI, leading the Blue Jays in both categories.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .263 with a .335 on-base percentage. The power has been surprisingly quiet with only nine homers, but he’s still one of the hitters Williamson can’t afford to give free opportunities.
Toronto showed what the lineup can do Friday.
The Blue Jays scored six runs in the opener, getting a three-run homer from Okamoto before surviving Cincinnati’s late push. Saturday was a different story, with Toronto managing only one run.
That inconsistency has followed the Jays for much of the year.
Reds Stats
Cincinnati’s batting average doesn’t jump off the page, but the power certainly does. The Reds have hit 219 home runs, giving them several ways to change a game without needing to string together four hits in an inning.
De La Cruz has reached 30 homers and is batting .285 with a .367 on-base percentage. He has been especially dangerous down the stretch, giving Cincinnati one more reason to keep swinging in Game 162.
The Reds don’t need to manufacture every run when this lineup has this many guys capable of skipping a few bases.
Stewart has been another major source of damage with 32 home runs and 111 RBI. Add Eugenio Suárez and his 26 homers, and Scherzer doesn’t get many comfortable places to hide in this lineup.
Cincinnati scored five Saturday after putting up five in Friday’s loss.
Ten runs in two games isn’t a bad way to arrive at a matchup against a starter carrying an ERA above six.
Reds vs. Blue Jays Pitching Matchup
Brandon Williamson gets the ball for Cincinnati at 5-4 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He’s struck out 33 batters, but limiting baserunners has been the bigger issue.
That can become dangerous quickly at Rogers Centre.
Toronto counters with Scherzer, who enters at 3-9 with a 6.14 ERA. He still owns 61 strikeouts and can reach back for the occasional vintage sequence, but the overall results have been rough.
The Reds aren’t likely to be intimidated by the name on the back of the baseball card.
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Scherzer’s ability to miss bats gives Toronto some upside, but Cincinnati’s power makes mistakes expensive. Williamson faces a Blue Jays lineup that has been inconsistent but still has enough right-handed thump to punish traffic on the bases.
Neither offense needs another 6-5 game to make this interesting.
With two starters carrying ERAs near five or worse, the bullpens may be asked to protect this total before the afternoon is finished.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays bottom line: Cincinnati brings enough home-run power to pressure Scherzer, while Williamson’s baserunner problems give Toronto a chance to answer in a finale that has more offensive upside than the pitching names might initially suggest.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Betting Trends
- The Blue Jays are 1-4 straight up in their last five games.
- Additionally, the Reds are 3-2 straight up in their last five games.
- The total has gone under in 3 of the Blue Jays’ last 5 games.
- The total has gone over in 3 of the Reds’ last 5 games.
- Also, the Blue Jays are 1-4 against the run line in their last five games.
- The Reds are 3-2 against the run line in their last five games.
Reds Blue Jays Free Pick: Over 8.5
Here is my Reds Blue Jays free pick: I’m taking Over 8.5. Max Scherzer carries a 6.14 ERA into his final start of the season, while Brandon Williamson counters with a 4.89 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. That’s not exactly a pitching matchup begging me to look Under.
Cincinnati brings plenty of power into Rogers Centre. Elly De La Cruz has reached 30 homers, Sal Stewart has 32, and the Reds have already scored 10 runs through the first two games of this series.
Scherzer can still miss bats, but his name looks considerably scarier than his 2026 numbers.
Toronto should get opportunities of its own against Williamson. The Blue Jays scored six Friday, and Williamson has allowed enough traffic this season to give a Toronto lineup with Okamoto and Guerrero chances to do some damage.
Friday’s 6-5 opener showed how quickly these offenses can get there. With two vulnerable starters and enough power on both sides, I’ll make 8.5 the number they have to beat.
Take Over 8.5.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
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Toronto Blue Jays on X
Leading off: George Springer 💙 #BlueJays50 pic.twitter.com/DBKOuPH0tn
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) September 27, 2026
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