Free MLB Pick: Reds vs. Mets Odds
Looking for Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Reds taking on the Mets on Friday, July 30th, 2021 at Citi Field in Queens, NY. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Reds Mets free pick.
2021 MLB Handicapping
(54-49) Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets (54-47)
Date: Friday, July 30th, 2021
Time: 7:10 PM ET
Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Projected Pitchers: Gray (CIN) vs. Carrasco (NYM)
MLB Moneyline Odds: CIN -110 | NYM -110
MLB RunLine Betting Odds: CIN -210 | NYM +180
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U 8.5 (Over -115)
After stumbling coming out of the post-All-Star Break gates, Cincinnati has regained its footing to win three in a row coming into this weekend’s series in New York.
The Reds took two out of three against St. Louis before winning three of four against Chicago and have won five out of their last seven.
Sonny Gray gets the start in Friday’s series opener. He’s taken a step back after two excellent seasons in Cincinnati the last two years.
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But Gray has still been better than league-average with a 105 ERA+ in 14 starts (70 innings). He’s giving up a hit an inning with better than three strikeouts for every one walk he allows.
Those numbers are despite coming off his worst start of the year, where he gave up eight runs in 3.1 innings to the Cardinals. St. Louis got Gray for a season-high three home runs in that one.
In fact, in his start before that one, he gave up a season-high five runs. So his two worst starts of the season have come in his last two, overall. Prior, Gray had ten consecutive outings of allowing no more than three earned runs.
New York Mets
The Mets have alternated wins and losses for their last eight games. They just played Atlanta for five in a row, winning two by exactly one run each and losing three by many more than that.
Jacob DeGrom remains on the Injured List for New York. He’s improving but there still remains no firm timeline for his return.
Carlos Carrasco will make his Mets debut in this one and his first Major League appearance that is not in a Cleveland Indians uniform.
The right-hander from Venezuela won 88 games for the Tribe over in the American League, including a league-high 18 in 2017.
He’s come back from numerous injuries, including last season, when he posted a 2.91 ERA in 12 starts (68 innings) for Terry Francona.
He has made three minor league starts this season between Syracuse (AAA) and Brooklyn (A+) and only lasted a total of 6.2 innings, giving up six hits, five earned runs, three walks, and striking out nine.
Carrasco actually came over to New York in the Francisco Lindor deal. And just as Lindor was starting to improve his batting average, he hit the injured list two weeks ago with an oblique strain.
There hasn’t been any word on when he will return, either.
MLB Baseball Betting Trends:
- Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 road games.
- Reds are 18-7 in their last 25 Friday games.
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Mets are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Mets are 15-5 in their last 20 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 overall.
- Under is 16-5-1 in Mets last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Head to Head: Reds are 4-13 in the last 17 meetings in New York.
- Head to Head: Reds are 10-27 in the last 37 meetings.
- Head to Head: Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings.
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets MLB Prediction: Cincinnati.
Not only do the Reds have a potentially favorable matchup against a starting pitcher who could be a little overmatched in Carrasco, they could get a bounce-back start from their own starter.
It’s been said about Carrasco before, but there’s plenty of uncertainty around how effective he will be and how long he’ll be able to go. The Mets’ bullpen will play a big role in this one.
Gray only threw 72 pitches in his last start because he was so ineffective. That could have him feeling fresh for this start and refocused on getting back to the basic.
The Reds are on the road but -110 feels like a bargain price in this spot.
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