Free NLDS – Game 1 Pick: Cubs vs. Brewers Odds
Looking for Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Cubs taking on the Brewers on 10/4 at American Family Field, in Milwaukee. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Cubs Brewers free pick.
2025 MLB Handicapping – Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers
NLDS – Game 1
(2-1) Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers (0-0)
Date: Oct 04, 2025
Time: 2:08 PM ET
Venue: American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI
Projected Starting Pitchers: Matthew Boyd vs. Freddy Peralta
MLB Moneyline Odds: Cubs +133 | Brewers -156 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Cubs +1.5 | Brewers -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 7.5
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Cubs vs. Brewers Gameday
The NLDS gets underway at American Family Field as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs in Game 1 of this best-of-five series. The Brewers come in as the higher seed after a 97-65 regular season, while the 92-70 Cubs earned their ticket with a gritty Wild Card win over San Diego.
With the roof closed, weather won’t be a factor — just pressure and playoff nerves.
Chicago, under Craig Counsell, took down the Padres 3-1 behind another efficient outing from Jameson Taillon. The Cubs’ lineup, powered by Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki, has heated up at the right time.
Their road mark of 42-39 shows they can win away from Wrigley, and they’ll need that resilience against Milwaukee’s elite home record.
For Pat Murphy’s Brewers, it’s been a season built on pitching and home dominance (52-29). They wrapped up the regular season with a 4-2 win over Cincinnati and enter the postseason confident in both their bullpen and their young lineup led by Jackson Chourio and Danny Jansen.
With two NL Central rivals colliding, every pitch in this opener will matter.
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Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds & Last 5
Milwaukee opens as -155 favorites, while the Cubs sit at +132. On the runline, Chicago +1.5 is priced at -173, suggesting oddsmakers expect a tight game. The total is set at 7 runs, signaling confidence in both starting pitchers.
The Cubs have taken 7 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings, though Milwaukee has outscored them slightly overall. Chicago has won four of its last five, including a clutch Wild Card victory, while the Brewers have gone 3-2 in their last five contests.
The under has cashed frequently when these two meet, and given the arms on the mound, another low-scoring battle could be on tap.
Brewers Stats
Milwaukee’s balanced attack helped them reach 97 wins. They hit .258 as a team (2nd), with a .331 OBP (2nd) and .403 slugging (10th). While they’re not a home-run-heavy club (166 HR, 19th), they manufacture offense through contact and smart base running.
Pitching has been their backbone — a 3.59 ERA (2nd) and a .230 batting average against (4th). The Brewers’ staff gave up just 168 home runs (5th), showing how stingy they are at home.
Freddy Peralta anchors the rotation, backed by one of MLB’s best bullpens.
Danny Jansen and rookie phenom Jackson Chourio have been clutch late in games, combining for timely hits throughout September.
If the Brewers get a lead, they rarely let it go.
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Cubs Stats
Chicago’s offense is more explosive, ranking 8th in batting average (.249), 6th in OBP (.320), and 5th in slugging (.430). Their 223 home runs (6th) give them the firepower to change games in one swing.
Michael Busch (34 HR, .261 AVG) and Seiya Suzuki (32 HR) have carried the load, while the Cubs’ lineup depth has proven dangerous.
Their pitching has been steady, too — a 3.81 ERA (9th) and a .238 opponents’ average (9th). The one concern: the long ball. The Cubs surrendered 202 homers (21st), something Milwaukee’s contact-heavy lineup could exploit.
Riding a four-game surge, the Cubs have found ways to win both close games and slugfests.
Their confidence and Counsell’s familiarity with his former team make them a tricky underdog.
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Cubs vs. Brewers Pitching Matchup
Chicago hands the ball to Matthew Boyd (14-8, 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), who’s been a stabilizing force all season. He thrives on command and inducing weak contact, with enough strikeout stuff to escape jams.
The Cubs will hope he sets the tone early against Milwaukee’s disciplined hitters.
Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) starts for the Brewers, and he’s been dominant all season. He keeps hitters guessing with his fastball-slider combo and rarely gives up the big inning.
When he’s locked in, he’s nearly unhittable — especially at home.
This Game 1 matchup is as good as it gets: Boyd’s precision versus Peralta’s power.
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers bottom line: Expect a tense, low-scoring duel where one swing could be the difference.
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Baseball Betting Trends
- The Brewers have gone 2-3 straight-up in their last five games.
- The Brewers have hit the over in 2 of their last 5 games.
- The Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 games straight-up.
- Also, the Cubs have hit the under in 3 of their last 5 games.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in 2 of their last 5 games.
- Additionally, the Cubs have covered the run line in 3 of their last 5 games.
NLDS – Game 1 Cubs vs Brewers Prediction: Cubs ML +132 (Parlay Cubs +1.5)
Here is our Cubs Brewers free pick. The Cubs come into this matchup riding solid momentum, and their steady 42-39 road mark shows they’re comfortable away from Wrigley.
That balance between road consistency and recent form makes them a live underdog in this spot.
Meanwhile, the Brewers have hit a bit of a lull, dropping three of their last five despite maintaining a strong record at home. The Cubs’ recent success in head-to-head meetings gives them an added confidence boost heading into this series.
When an offense ranks second in both batting average and on-base percentage, you can trust it to stay dangerous against any opponent.
Chicago’s lineup has been relentless all season, capable of generating traffic and cashing in with runners in scoring position. Milwaukee’s pitching has been sturdy, but the Cubs’ ability to grind out at-bats could tilt this matchup in their favor.
Considering their offensive firepower and recent edge over the Brewers, the Cubs ML at +132 offers solid value. Expect Chicago’s bats to stay hot and carry them to another big divisional win.
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MLB Betting Tweet Of The Day
Our All-Star. Our Ace. Our Game-1 Starter.#MagicBrew pic.twitter.com/U2ZHLsMkyr
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) October 3, 2025
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