Free Pick: Cubs vs. Reds Odds
Looking for Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Cubs taking on the Reds on 7/11 at Great American Ball Park, in Cincinnati. This free MLB baseball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Cubs Reds matchup..
2026 MLB Handicapping – Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
(52-42) Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds (43-50)
Date: Jul 11, 2026
Time: 7:10 PM ET
Venue: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH
Projected Starting Pitchers: Javier Assad vs. Nick Lodolo
MLB Moneyline Odds: Cubs -123 | Reds +103 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Cubs -1.5 | Reds +1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 10
Here’s why I’m backing an UNDER bet below in my Cubs Reds free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Cubs vs. Reds Gameday
The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds meet tonight at Great American Ball Park after entering the matchup on different paths. Chicago has dropped its last two games, while Cincinnati looks to build off its latest victory over the Cubs.
The Cubs remain in solid position despite the recent slide.
Managed by Craig Counsell, Chicago owns a 52-42 record and sits second in the NL Central. Even with yesterday’s loss to the Reds, the Cubs have still gone 6-4 over their last ten games and will be looking to get back on track.
The Reds, managed by Terry Francona, are fifth in the division with a 43-50 record. Cincinnati ended its losing streak with a victory over Chicago behind a dominant outing from Hunter Greene, giving the club some much-needed momentum heading into tonight.
Momentum shifted quickly, and now Cincinnati gets another chance to keep the pressure on.
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2026 MLB Baseball Handicapping
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Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds & Last 5
The betting market lists the Cubs as slight -122 moneyline favorites, while the Reds check in at +101. The total is set at 10.0 runs, signaling expectations for another game with plenty of offense.
Recent form tells two different stories.
Chicago has posted a respectable 6-4 record over its last ten games despite consecutive losses. Cincinnati has gone 4-6 over that same stretch, but the Reds picked up an important win over the Cubs in their latest meeting and will try to carry that confidence into this matchup.
Reds Stats
Cincinnati’s offense continues to feature a combination of power and patience. The Reds rank 9th in home runs with 115, although their .228 batting average ranks 21st, leaving room for improvement in generating more consistent offense.
The pitching staff has produced uneven results.
The Reds own a 4.49 ERA that ranks 20th in the league, while opponents are hitting .246 against them, placing 15th. They have also surrendered 124 home runs, ranking 17th, making limiting the long ball an area that still needs improvement.
Sal Stewart leads the club with 19 home runs and 65 RBIs. Elly De La Cruz continues to be one of the lineup’s biggest threats with a .272 batting average and 15 home runs, while Spencer Steer enters after a recent three-hit performance against the Cubs.
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Cubs Stats
Chicago has remained one of the better offensive clubs at getting runners aboard. The Cubs rank 3rd with a .335 on-base percentage, while their .409 slugging percentage sits 8th in the league.
Pitching has been less consistent throughout the season.
The Cubs carry a 4.35 ERA that ranks 18th in baseball, and they have allowed 144 home runs, placing 20th. Tightening up the long ball will remain an important focus as the season continues.
Dansby Swanson leads Chicago with 16 home runs and 58 RBIs. Seiya Suzuki has continued providing steady production, while Pete Crow-Armstrong recently delivered a two-home-run performance against the Orioles on July 8th.
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Cubs vs. Reds Pitching Matchup
Javier Assad gets the ball for Chicago carrying a 6-1 record and a 4.15 ERA. He has recorded 33 strikeouts this season while continuing to give the Cubs dependable innings whenever he takes the mound.
His efficiency has been one of his biggest strengths.
Assad owns a 1.10 WHIP, reflecting his ability to limit baserunners. If he continues throwing strikes and working ahead in counts, he should give Chicago another solid opportunity to win.
Nick Lodolo counters for Cincinnati with a 3-2 record and a 4.68 ERA. He has struck out 46 batters this season and continues to flash the swing-and-miss ability that makes him dangerous when everything is working.
Finding greater consistency remains the next step.
Lodolo enters with a 1.46 WHIP, showing there is still room to cut down on traffic around the bases. If he sharpens his command early, Cincinnati will have a chance to build on the momentum from its most recent victory.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds bottom line: Chicago owns the stronger overall profile, but Cincinnati has already shown it can compete and enters with fresh confidence after beating the Cubs.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Baseball Betting Trends
- The Reds are 3-2 straight-up in their last 5 games.
- The Cubs are 2-3 straight-up in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone under in 3 of the Reds’ last 5 games.
- Also, the total has gone over in 3 of the Cubs’ last 5 games.
- The Reds have covered the run line in 3 of their last 5 games.
- Additionally, the Cubs have covered the run line in 2 of their last 5 games.
Cubs Reds Free Pick: Under 10
Here is my Cubs Reds free pick: This total feels a little high considering how these teams have been playing lately. I expect pitching to have more of an impact than the number suggests.
The Cubs have gone over in 3 of their last 5 games.
Cincinnati has leaned the other way, staying under in 3 of its last 5 contests.
Recent meetings between these clubs have also favored lower scores, with 3 of the last 5 staying under the total. Add light rain and calm conditions into the mix, and this shapes up as a game where offense could be tougher to find.
Not every matchup at Great American Ball Park turns into a home run derby.
Pitching deserves some respect here.
Both staffs have been good enough to limit damage when they’re locating early, and I don’t expect constant traffic on the bases throughout the night.
My MLB betting system points to the Under 10, and that’s the direction I’m taking.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
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MLB Betting Tweet Of The Day
Gem of a night#ATOBTTR pic.twitter.com/3dgeL0c7z3
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 11, 2026
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