Free Pick: Orioles vs. Mets Odds
Looking for Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Orioles taking on the Mets on 9/14 at Citi Field, in New York. This free MLB baseball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Orioles Mets matchup.
2026 MLB Handicapping – Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets
(72-78) Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets (69-80)
Date: Sep 14, 2026
Time: 7:10 PM ET
Venue: Citi Field in New York, NY
Projected Starting Pitchers: Brandon Young vs. Jonah Tong
MLB Moneyline Odds: Orioles +104 | Mets -123 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Orioles +1.5 | Mets -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 8
Here’s why I’m backing a New York ML bet below in my Orioles Mets free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Orioles vs. Mets Gameday
The Baltimore Orioles visit Citi Field tonight trying to stop a three-game losing streak after being swept by Toronto. Baltimore enters at 72-78 under Craig Albernaz and sits fifth in the AL East after Sunday’s 8-1 loss to the Blue Jays.
New York returns home at 69-80 under interim manager Andy Green after dropping Sunday’s Subway Series finale to the Yankees. The Mets still took two of three in that series and have played considerably better lately, winning seven of their last 10 games.
New York enters this series playing its best baseball despite remaining well below .500.
Baltimore has gone 3-7 over its last 10 and was outscored 22-8 during the three-game sweep in Toronto. The Orioles have now lost five of six after previously putting together a more encouraging stretch.
This is the first meeting between Baltimore and New York this season.
The Orioles are 36-39 on the road, while the Mets are 34-40 at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET, with MASN and SNY carrying the series opener.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets Odds & Last 5
The betting market continues to make New York a modest home favorite, with the Mets sitting around -123 and Baltimore approximately +105. The Orioles are getting +1.5 runs around -205, while New York is laying 1.5 at substantial plus money.
The total is sitting around 8 runs, with some books showing 7.5.
Baltimore enters after losing all three games in Toronto by scores of 7-4, 7-3 and 8-1. The Orioles have dropped five of their last six overall and scored three runs or fewer in four of those defeats.
New York has won seven of 10 despite Sunday’s loss to the Yankees. The Mets took the first two games of the Subway Series and now return home for three against an Orioles team trying to stop another slide.
Mets Stats
New York has relied heavily on power throughout the season, entering this series with 188 home runs. The Mets are batting around .238, but their ability to change games with one swing remains one of the lineup’s biggest strengths.
Juan Soto remains the most dangerous power threat in the order.
Soto leads New York with 33 home runs, while Francisco Lindor has added 20 and continues to provide production near the top of the lineup. Bo Bichette has also been a major contributor, giving the Mets another experienced bat capable of driving the offense.
New York’s pitching staff carries an ERA around 4.20 while holding opponents to a batting average near .240. That combination has helped the Mets stabilize during their improved September stretch.
Orioles Stats
Baltimore enters with a team batting average around .234 and has hit 179 home runs. The Orioles haven’t consistently hit for average, but there is still considerable power throughout a lineup that can punish mistakes.
Pete Alonso leads Baltimore with 35 home runs and remains the centerpiece of the offense. Coby Mayo has added 23 homers, while Gunnar Henderson has 22 and continues to provide production from the middle of the order.
The Orioles’ offense has gone quiet during the current losing streak.
Baltimore scored only eight runs during its three-game sweep in Toronto, including one Sunday. The pitching staff owns an ERA around 4.20, leaving the Orioles with little room for extended offensive droughts during the final weeks of the season.
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Orioles vs. Mets Pitching Matchup
Brandon Young is expected to start for Baltimore after some earlier official probable-pitcher listings still showed the Orioles as TBD. Current matchup listings have Young at 9-4 with an ERA in the mid-3.00s and more than 100 strikeouts.
Young has developed into one of Baltimore’s more dependable rotation options.
His ability to limit hard contact will be important against a Mets lineup that relies heavily on home-run production. Baltimore needs another controlled outing after its pitching staff surrendered 22 runs during the weekend in Toronto.
Jonah Tong is confirmed for New York at 2-1 with a 4.80 ERA and 14 strikeouts. The rookie right-hander has made only a handful of major-league appearances, leaving a much smaller body of work than his Baltimore counterpart.
Tong is coming off his best start, working six scoreless innings against Philadelphia while allowing three hits. He now gets an Orioles lineup that has struggled to create sustained offense during its current three-game skid.
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets bottom line: New York enters with the stronger recent form, while Baltimore is trying to regroup after a difficult three-game sweep in Toronto.
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets Baseball Betting Trends
- The Mets are 3-2 straight-up in their last 5 games.
- Also, the Orioles are 2-3 straight-up in their last 5 games.
- The Mets have covered the run line in 2 of their last 5 games.
- The Orioles have covered the run line in 2 of their last 5 games.
- The total has gone over in 3 of the Mets’ last 5 games.
- Additionally, the total has gone over in 3 of the Orioles’ last 5 games.
Orioles Mets Free Pick: Mets ML -123
Here is my Orioles Mets free pick: I’m taking the Mets ML -123. New York has quietly put together a good stretch, winning seven of its last 10, while Baltimore arrives at Citi Field after getting swept in Toronto over the weekend.
The Orioles were outscored 22-8 in that series and managed only one run Sunday. That’s a rough turnaround for a club now opening another road series without much offensive momentum behind it.
New York lost the Subway Series finale Sunday, but the Mets took two of three from the Yankees and have been playing much better baseball this month. I’m more interested in that broader form than one loss across town.
New York has simply been the steadier club entering this series opener.
The Mets also return to Citi Field after a successful road series, while Baltimore has dropped three straight and five of six. That recent separation is enough for me at a moneyline price sitting in the low -120s.
I’m not laying this number because I expect New York to dominate. Baltimore still has enough power to make this uncomfortable, but the Orioles haven’t given me much reason to trust them away from home lately.
My MLB handicapping approach favors the hotter side at a manageable price. I’ll take the Mets ML -123.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
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New York Mets on X
Another great tag by Lindor! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/8KRphCv6LW
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 13, 2026
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