Free MLB Pick: Braves vs. Padres Odds
Looking for Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Braves taking on the Padres on Friday, July 12th, 2024 at PETCO Park, in San Diego, CA. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Braves Padres free pick.
2024 MLB Handicapping – Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres
(51-41) Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres (49-47)
Date: Friday, July 12th
Time: 9:40 ET
Venue: PETCO Park San Diego, CA
Projected Starting Pitchers: Spencer Schwellenbach vs. Randy Vásquez
MLB Moneyline Odds: Braves -125 | Padres +106 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Braves -1.5 | Padres +1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 8.5
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Braves vs. Padres Gameday
It’s a NL matchup at PETCO Park in San Diego, CA, as the Padres host the Braves. First pitch is at 9:40 PM ET. The Braves are the favorite, with a money line of -125 compared to the Padres at +106. The over/under line is set at 8.5 runs.
Spencer Schwellenbach is on the mound for the Braves, while Randy Vásquez gets the start for the Padres. The Braves are looking to snap a two-game losing streak and improve on their 51-41 record, while the Padres are hoping to end a four-game skid and improve on their 49-47 record.
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is 51-41 overall, putting them 2nd in the NL East, 9.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Braves lost the final two games of their series vs. the Diamondbacks and are just 5-5 over their last 10 games. So far, they have gone 14-12 in divisional games.
At home, the Braves have been good, going 29-17 this year. On the road, they are 22-24 and have dropped two straight road games. As the favorite, the Braves are 48-34 and 3-7 as the underdog. Atlanta’s overall series record is 17-11-3 heading into today’s game vs. the Padres.
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The Braves will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Diamondbacks with a 1-0 loss. Atlanta was the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but couldn’t push across a run. The Braves wasted a good start from Max Fried, who took the loss, going six innings and giving up just one run on five hits. He also issued three walks and struck out seven.
Atlanta’s offense was carried by Austin Riley, who went 2/4 with a double. However, the Braves couldn’t score a run, and Riley was left stranded on base both times. The Braves also wasted a big game from Marcell Ozuna, who went 2/4 with a run scored.
Braves Gambling
When the Braves are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is below their season average of 9 runs per game. Their games have averaged 7.9 runs per game, and their over/under record is 32-55 on the season. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 8-16. So far this season, 39.1% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8.5 runs.
When the Braves are on the road, they have a run line record of 22-24, with an average run margin of 0.6 runs per game. They have been the favorite in 82 games and have a run line record of 38-44 in those games.
Braves Stats
The Atlanta Braves have been an average offensive team this season, ranking 17th in runs per game with 4.3. Their home and road splits are nearly identical, with 4.3 runs per game at home and 4.2 on the road. The Braves have hit 104 home runs this season, which is 10th in the league. Their batting average of .242 is 12th in the league, and their strikeout rate is 20th. Marcell Ozuna has been their best hitter this season, leading the team in batting average (.298), on-base percentage (.375), home runs (24), and RBI (75). Austin Riley has been hot at the plate recently, hitting .364 over his last 9 games.
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San Diego Padres
San Diego will open their series vs. the Braves at home, having dropped four straight games, spanning across their series vs. the Mariners and the final two games of their series vs. the Nationals. Currently, the Padres are 49-47 overall, which has them 2nd in the NL West, seven games behind the Dodgers.
At home, the Padres are 25-26 this season and 24-21 on the road. As the favorite, the Padres are 28-28 and 21-19 as the underdog. Looking at how they have done in series, the Padres are 17-12-3 overall but have dropped two straight series.
The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Mariners with a 2-0 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead in the series going into the game. San Diego was the -143 favorite at home. Things started off well for the Padres, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but couldn’t hold the lead. The Mariners scored the go-ahead run in the 4th and added another run in the 6th to close things out.
Michael King put together a good start for the Padres, going six innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out nine. However, the Padres couldn’t get the win, and King took the loss. San Diego’s offense was held to only six hits and didn’t have a single player with more than one hit.
Padres Gambling
San Diego’s games have averaged 9.0 runs per game this season, but their over/under record is 52-43, and the average line for their games is 8 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, the over/under record is 13-11. This season, 16.7% of their games have had lines set at 8.5 runs, while 58.3% have had lines set lower.
The Padres have been a solid run line team overall this season, going 49-47. However, they have been much better on the road, going 31-14 compared to just 18-33 at home. Their average run margin for the season is +0.2, but they have been outscored by 0.5 runs per game at home. They have also been a strong run line team as the underdog, going 28-12.
Padres Stats
The San Diego Padres have been one of the top offensive teams in the league this season. Their batting average of .261 ranks 2nd in the league, and their strikeouts per game are 2nd best. They are also 6th in OBP, 7th in SLG, and 8th in OPS. Jurickson Profar has been one of their top hitters this season, with a .311 batting average and 14 home runs. He is currently on a 5-game hitting streak. Jake Cronenworth has also been hot at the plate, with a .263 average and 13 home runs. The Padres are averaging 4.6 runs per game this season, and their offense has been especially strong on the road, where they are scoring 4.7 runs per game.
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Braves Padres Pitching
Right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Padres on the road. He has made seven starts this year and has a record of 2-4 with a 5.02 ERA. Schwellenbach’s WHIP for the season is 1.27, and opponents are batting .260 off him this year. In his 37 2/3 innings of work, Schwellenbach has turned in three quality starts. His ERA at home is 3.9 compared to 7.26 on the road. In his last outing, he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work.
Randy Vásquez gets the start for the Padres today vs. the Braves and comes into the game with a record of 2-4 and ERA of 4.66. So far this season, he has made 12 starts, and opponents are batting .315 off the right-hander. Vásquez has made three quality starts this year and is averaging 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going 6 1/3 innings vs. the Diamondbacks, giving up two earned runs, and one homer. Vásquez has not lost back-to-back starts since April.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres MLB Baseball Betting Trends
- The Braves head into the game having gone 4-6 straight-up in their last ten games on the road.
- The Braves they are 3-7 vs. the runline in their previous ten games on the road.
- Conversely, the Padres are 5-5 over their last ten home games (straight-up).
- Furthermore, the Padres have a 6-4 mark vs. the runline across their last ten home games.
- Also, the Braves are 1-2 in their last three games as the favorite. On the other hand, they are 1-2 as the underdog (last 3).
- The Padres have a record of 0-3 across their last three games when favored. As the underdog, they are 2-1 in their last three games.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres 4* Free MLB Betting Pick:
Our prediction for today’s Braves vs. Padres game is to take the Padres on the money line, with the payout sitting at +106. We have the Padres winning this one by a score of 4-2.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Randy Vásquez finishing with five strikeouts compared to Spencer Schwellenbach with five. However, we have Vásquez finishing with a better chance of picking up the win, as he is projected to go five innings compared to Schwellenbach going just four.
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