Free NCAAF Pick: Sun Devils vs. Knights Odds
Looking for Arizona State Sun Devils vs. UCF Knights Free NCAA Week 11 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Sun Devils taking on the Knights on 11/14 at Acrisure Bounce House, in Orlando, FL. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Sun Devils Knights matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights
Sun Devils +3.5 | Knights -3.5Here’s why I’m backing a UCF ATS bet below in my Sun Devils Knights free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Sun Devils vs. Knights Gameday
The Arizona State Sun Devils visit the UCF Knights on Saturday, November 14, 2026, at Acrisure Bounce House in Orlando. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on ESPN2. Both teams enter at 5-4 overall and 3-3 in Big 12 play. One more victory would make either program bowl-eligible. Arizona State is 0-3 in true road games.
Arizona State needs a road breakthrough, while UCF has been considerably more comfortable in Orlando.
Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils defeated Colorado 20-10 last weekend. They’ve struggled to establish consistency away from Tempe.
UCF is 4-1 at home under Scott Frost.
The Knights escaped Kansas with a 33-32 victory. That win snapped a 12-game road losing streak. It also ended a two-game slide.
Arizona State won the previous meeting 35-31 in 2024. That contest took place in Tempe. Saturday marks the Sun Devils’ first trip to Orlando and their second-longest road trip within the continental United States.
Both programs have plenty riding on this Big 12 matchup.
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Arizona State Sun Devils vs. UCF Knights Odds & Previous Games
UCF is favored by 3.5 points with a -163 moneyline. Arizona State is +137, and the total is 49.5.
The Sun Devils have won three of their last five games.
Arizona State defeated Colorado 20-10, Kansas State 28-17 and Hawaii 30-12. Losses came against BYU 27-20 and Texas Tech 53-25. Those results reflect an offense that hasn’t always found its rhythm.
UCF is 2-3 over the same stretch.
The Knights defeated Kansas 33-32 and BYU 39-31. They lost to Baylor 41-9, Oklahoma State 42-28 and Houston 27-17.
The teams have met only once as Big 12 opponents.
Arizona State won that 2024 contest by four points. UCF gets the rematch on its own field, where the Knights have been considerably tougher to beat.
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Knights Stats
UCF averages 30 points and 359 total yards per game. The Knights produce 146 rushing yards per contest, with their ground game providing an important part of the offense.
Duke Watson leads the rushing attack with 596 yards and three TDs.
Watson has dealt with a foot injury. Landen Chambers has contributed 225 yards and four TDs, providing another option in the backfield.
Josh Derry leads the receivers with 571 yards and four TDs.
Derry gives the Knights a dependable target downfield. UCF averages 213 passing yards per game, although its production has fluctuated between quarterbacks.
The Knights have allowed 234 points this season.
UCF has intercepted seven passes and forced seven fumbles. The defense has allowed 379 yards per game, but its ability to create turnovers has been valuable.
The Knights have improved against the run, allowing 134 yards per contest.
Sun Devils Stats
Arizona State has scored 256 points through nine games, averaging 28 per contest. The Sun Devils have gained 2,234 passing yards and 1,264 rushing yards. Their offense has relied more heavily on the passing game.
Cardae Mack leads the rushing attack with 603 yards and six TDs.
Mack has provided Arizona State with its most productive ground-game option. His ability to create explosive gains gives the Sun Devils another way to move the chains.
Reed Harris leads the receivers with 907 yards and nine TDs.
Harris has been Arizona State’s most dangerous downfield target. His production has been particularly important when the offense needs a quick scoring opportunity.
Arizona State has offensive weapons, but consistent execution has been harder to find outside Tempe.
The Sun Devils have allowed 246 points this season.
Arizona State has recorded 19 sacks and five interceptions. Its defense has shown it can pressure quarterbacks without consistently preventing explosive plays.
Opponents have averaged 346 yards against the Sun Devils.
Arizona State has allowed 126 rushing yards per game. Its defensive front faces another test against UCF’s backfield rotation.
Sun Devils vs. Knights QB Matchup
Alonza Barnett III returned to UCF’s starting lineup against Kansas after recovering from a hamstring injury. He directed the game-winning drive, giving the Knights another option at quarterback.
Barnett has thrown for 728 yards, four TDs and two interceptions.
His experience includes leading James Madison into the College Football Playoff last season. Barnett’s mobility and ability to operate under pressure provide a different dimension for Frost’s offense.
Keyone Jenkins has handled most of UCF’s passing attempts this season.
Jenkins has completed 122 of 180 passes for 1,181 yards, 11 TDs and four interceptions. An ankle injury has complicated his availability.
Arizona State has also experienced changes at quarterback.
Jake Fette started against Colorado and accounted for a passing TD and a receiving TD. It was his second career start, and he has completed 39 of 69 passes for 411 yards, three TDs and no interceptions this season.
Cutter Boley remains another important quarterback option.
Boley has completed 105 of 173 passes for 1,360 yards, 13 TDs and five interceptions. His season production has been strong, although his availability and role require attention.
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Mikey Keene has also contributed for Arizona State, throwing for 448 yards and two TDs. His experience adds another consideration to the Sun Devils’ quarterback situation.
Barnett brings recent starting experience for UCF, while Fette has handled Arizona State’s latest starts. Both programs have alternatives available. Neither should be treated as having a permanently settled quarterback rotation heading into Saturday.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. UCF Knights bottom line: UCF’s home-field strength meets an Arizona State offense with dangerous weapons but an unsettled quarterback situation.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. UCF Knights Football Betting Trends
- Arizona State is 3-0 against the spread in all games this season.
- Also, the Sun Devils are 5-2 on the over/under after a win in their last seven games.
- ASU is 3-1 on the over/under in away games in their last four outings.
- UCF has a 7-1 straight-up record as a favorite in their last eight games.
- Plus, the Knights have hit the over in all four of their games this season.
- UCF is 10-6 against the spread after a win in their last 16 games.
Sun Devils Knights Free Pick: UCF -3.5
Here is my Sun Devils Knights free pick: I’m laying UCF -3.5. The Knights are back home after pulling off a last-second road win, and I like the way Scott Frost’s team has handled pressure when it matters.
UCF didn’t commit a single penalty against Kansas. That’s not glamorous, but discipline matters when you’re laying a number that requires winning by more than a FG.
The Knights don’t need perfection, but they can’t afford to donate possessions to ASU.
I want UCF playing clean football and making the Devils earn their scoring opportunities. With both teams one victory from bowl eligibility, there’s little reason to expect either coaching staff to take its foot off the gas.
The hook is the risk. A three-point win loses this bet, so I need the Knights to finish drives rather than leave points sitting on the field.
Frost has a team capable of making the necessary plays, and I’m backing it to handle a tight 4th quarter without giving away the finish. Orlando gets the better performance Saturday. I’m laying UCF -3.5.
Today’s Week 11 NCAAF Free Pick
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UCF Knights on X
Scary Derry could not be stopped at Kansas 🔥 https://t.co/on9x1uwPt4
— UCF Football (@UCF_Football) November 9, 2026
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