Free NCAAF Pick: Bearcats vs. Cyclones Odds
Looking for Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Free NCAA Week 11 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Bearcats taking on the Cyclones on 11/14 at Jack Trice Stadium, in Ames, IA. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Bearcats Cyclones matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones
Bearcats +3 | Cyclones -3Here’s why I’m backing an OVER bet below in my Bearcats Cyclones free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Bearcats vs. Cyclones Gameday
The Cincinnati Bearcats visit the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday, November 14, 2026, at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames. Kickoff is noon ET on TNT.
Cincinnati enters at 5-4 overall and 2-4 in Big 12 play. Scott Satterfield’s Bearcats need another victory to become bowl-eligible.
The Bearcats are 0-3 on the road.
Cincinnati needs its first road victory, and Iowa State has been a difficult host this season.
Cincinnati fell 31-24 at Houston last weekend. The Bearcats have lost three of their last four games. Their offense has remained dangerous, but the results haven’t followed.
Iowa State stands at 4-5 overall and 2-4 in conference play. Jimmy Rogers’ Cyclones have struggled to establish consistency in his first season.
The Cyclones are 4-1 at home.
Iowa State lost 42-31 at Baylor in its previous outing. The Cyclones have dropped three of four. Their postseason hopes require a strong finish.
Cincinnati won last year’s meeting 38-30. Iowa State leads the all-time series 2-1. The Cyclones won the first two meetings before Cincinnati broke through in 2025.
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Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Odds & Previous Games
Iowa State is favored by three points with a -154 moneyline. Cincinnati is +130, and the total is 59.5 points.
The Bearcats are 1-4 in their last five games.
Cincinnati defeated Texas Tech 37-24 but lost to Houston 31-24 and Utah 49-25. Earlier defeats came against West Virginia 45-42 and Arizona 34-7. Those results show how quickly Cincinnati’s games can swing.
Iowa State is 2-3 over its previous five contests.
The Cyclones defeated Oklahoma State 51-49 and West Virginia 45-42. Losses came against Baylor 42-31, Arizona 39-3 and BYU 24-10.
Iowa State won the 2024 meeting 34-17 at Jack Trice Stadium.
The Cyclones also defeated Cincinnati 30-10 in 2023. Three meetings have produced three different scoring patterns, with the latest delivering the highest combined total.
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Cyclones Stats
Iowa State has scored 263 points through nine games, averaging 29 per contest. The Cyclones have gained 1,629 rushing yards and 1,803 passing yards. Their offense has relied on the ground game for its biggest gains.
Aiden Flora leads the rushing attack with 1,119 yards and nine TDs.
Flora averages more than seven yards per carry. He has produced four games with at least 180 rushing yards, giving Iowa State a genuine big-play threat.
The Cyclones have been hit hard by injuries at receiver.
Five of their expected top seven receivers have been lost for the season. Younger players have been forced into bigger roles, leaving the passing attack short on experience.
Iowa State has allowed 260 points this season.
The defense has recorded 12 sacks and three interceptions. Opponents have gained 394 yards per game, exposing problems with tackling and pass coverage. Those defensive struggles have been costly in conference play.
Bearcats Stats
Cincinnati has scored 297 points through nine games, averaging 33 per contest. The Bearcats have rushed for 2,009 yards, averaging 222 per game. Their ground attack ranks among the Big 12’s most productive.
Cole Tabb leads the backfield with 812 rushing yards and 10 TDs.
Tabb has averaged nearly nine yards per carry, making him dangerous whenever he finds daylight. His availability remains worth monitoring after a recent injury.
Gi’Bran Payne has contributed 556 rushing yards and two TDs.
Payne gives Cincinnati another dependable option. His ability to handle carries helps keep the offense balanced.
Cincinnati’s rushing attack can punish missed tackles, and Iowa State has given opponents too many chances.
The Bearcats have allowed 265 points this season.
Cincinnati has intercepted six passes and recovered six opponent fumbles. Those takeaways have helped offset some defensive breakdowns.
The Bearcats are allowing 445 yards per game. Opponents have found room to operate both through the air and on the ground. Cincinnati needs better tackling and fewer missed assignments. That becomes especially important against a physical Iowa State offense.
Bearcats vs. Cyclones QB Matchup
Jaylen Raynor leads Iowa State with 1,672 passing yards, 12 TDs and five interceptions. He has completed 133 of 223 attempts through nine games. Raynor remains the Cyclones’ established starter. He threw for 256 yards and two TDs against Baylor.
His mobility also allows Iowa State to extend plays when protection breaks down.
Connor Moberly provides depth behind Raynor.
Moberly has completed nine of 19 passes for 83 yards. He has dealt with an arm injury, making his availability worth monitoring.
Cincinnati counters with JC French IV.
French has thrown for 1,990 yards, 15 TDs and three interceptions. He’s completing 67% of his passes while making relatively few costly mistakes.
French also has eight rushing TDs this season.
His mobility gives Cincinnati another option near the goal line. Iowa State must account for him when passing plays break down.
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Liam O’Brien is the reserve QB for Cincinnati, with 18 passing yards in limited action. French remains the clear leader of the Bearcats’ offense.
Raynor faces the challenge of working with a depleted receiving group, while French benefits from an established rushing attack. Both quarterbacks can create opportunities outside the pocket. Their decisions under pressure will help determine which offense controls the game.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones bottom line: Cincinnati brings a productive rushing attack to Ames, where Iowa State’s explosive ground game makes this a demanding matchup for both defenses.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Football Betting Trends
- The Bearcats are 7-3 on the Over/Under in their last 10 games as underdogs.
- Also, Cincinnati is 3-1 against the spread after a loss in their last 4 games this season.
- Iowa State is 5-0 straight up in their last 5 games as favorites.
- The Cyclones have gone over the total in all 4 of their home games this season.
- Plus, the Bearcats have hit the Over in 6 of their last 8 away games.
- The Cyclones are 4-1 straight up after a loss in their last 5 games.
Bearcats Cyclones Free Pick: Over 59.5
Here is my Bearcats Cyclones free pick: I’m taking Over 59.5. Cincinnati and Iowa State both have enough offensive punch to make this number reachable, and neither defense has earned much trust when opponents start moving the chains.
The key is getting touchdowns instead of settling for FGs. Both teams have shown they can score in bunches, and a competitive game should keep the playbooks open.
Neither defense has exactly been collecting thank-you cards from under bettors.
I also like the possibility of a faster second half. If one team builds a lead, the other has the personnel to answer without spending eight minutes on every possession.
There’s no need to demand a touchdown on every drive. A couple of explosive scoring plays and one short field can do plenty of damage to this total.
Sixty points is a serious ask, but these defenses have provided enough reasons to take that chance.
I’m betting the offenses dictate the afternoon, not the punters.
Put me down for Over 59.5.
Today’s Week 11 NCAAF Free Pick
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Iowa State Cyclones on X
back at home 🌪️
🆚 Cincinnati
📆 Saturday, Nov. 14
📍 Jack Trice Stadium
⏰ 11:00 AM CT
📺 @TNTSportsUS https://t.co/r7X3KKOCJp— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) November 9, 2026
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