Free NCAAF Pick: Demon Deacons vs. Mustangs Odds
Looking for Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. SMU Mustangs Free NCAA Week 11 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Demon Deacons taking on the Mustangs on 11/14 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, in Dallas, TX. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Demon Deacons Mustangs matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs
Demon Deacons +1 | Mustangs -1Here’s why I’m backing the bet below in my Demon Deacons Mustangs free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Demon Deacons vs. Mustangs Gameday
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons visit the SMU Mustangs on Saturday, November 14, 2026, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. Kickoff is noon ET on ESPN.
Wake Forest enters at 8-1 overall and 5-1 in ACC play. Jake Dickert’s Demon Deacons are No. 11 in both major polls. They’ve won six straight.
The Demon Deacons are 4-0 on the road.
Wake Forest has handled every road assignment, but SMU isn’t rolling out the welcome mat.
SMU stands at 7-2 overall and 5-2 in conference play. Rhett Lashlee’s Mustangs are No. 25 in the AP Poll and No. 23 in the Coaches Poll. They’ve won four of five.
The Mustangs are 6-0 at home.
SMU leads the all-time series 3-1, although Wake Forest won last year’s meeting 13-12. These programs have met four times since 1949.
Both teams remain in the ACC championship race.
Wake Forest controls its destiny, while SMU needs a victory and some help elsewhere. Neither can afford a late-season stumble.
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Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. SMU Mustangs Odds & Previous Games
SMU is favored by 1.5 points, with both teams at -110 on the moneyline. The total is 61.5 points.
Wake Forest has won five straight.
The Demon Deacons defeated Merrimack 77-0, Virginia 51-7 and California 41-7. They also beat NC State 38-14 and Stanford 57-3. Opponents haven’t had many answers.
SMU has won four of five.
The Mustangs defeated Virginia Tech 51-28, California 59-20, Virginia 23-13 and Boston College 25-16. Their lone loss came against Syracuse, 30-27.
Wake Forest won the previous meeting by one point.
The Demon Deacons held SMU to four FGs in 2025. The Mustangs will want better finishing this time.
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Mustangs Stats
SMU has scored 333 points through nine games, averaging 37 per contest. The Mustangs have gained 2,894 passing yards and 1,388 net rushing yards. Their offense can attack several ways.
Kendrick Raphael leads the ground game with 755 rushing yards.
Raphael gives SMU a dependable option when defenses concentrate on the pass. His running helps sustain drives.
Yamir Knight leads the receivers with 626 yards and six TDs.
Knight has been productive throughout the season. His downfield threat creates space underneath.
The Mustangs have allowed 206 points.
Opponents average 320 total yards per game, including 126 rushing. SMU has limited sustained drives but struggled against some explosive offenses.
The defensive front has produced 27 sacks.
SMU has recovered five opponent fumbles and intercepted three passes. Those takeaways can provide valuable field position.
Demon Deacons Stats
Wake Forest has scored 390 points through nine games, averaging 43 per contest. The Demon Deacons have 2,807 passing yards and 1,582 net rushing yards. Their offense has been impressive.
Ty Clark III leads the rushing attack with 416 yards and eight TDs.
Deuce Lawrence has added 327 yards and three TDs. Both provide options when defenses focus on the pass.
Carlos Hernandez leads the receivers with 945 yards and seven TDs.
Hernandez has been a reliable offensive weapon. His big-play ability makes single coverage dangerous.
Wake Forest has been winning convincingly, and its defense deserves plenty of credit.
The Demon Deacons have allowed 143 points.
Opponents average 310 total yards per game, including 85 rushing. Wake Forest has also generated 21 sacks.
The secondary has contributed five interceptions.
Wake Forest has held opponents to 34% on third down. That consistency helps prevent extended scoring drives.
Demon Deacons vs. Mustangs QB Matchup
Kevin Jennings leads SMU with 2,764 passing yards, 25 TDs and six interceptions through nine games. He’s completed 209 of 283 passes.
Jennings has been particularly effective at home.
He threw for 350 yards and four TDs against Virginia Tech. His mobility also helps when protection breaks down.
Ty Hawkins serves as the backup QB.
Hawkins has completed 12 of 14 passes for 117 yards and two TDs in three appearances. Jennings remains the established starter.
Wake Forest expects Gio Lopez back after a knee injury kept him out against Merrimack.
Lopez has completed 153 of 228 passes for 2,176 yards, 18 TDs and one interception through eight games. His efficiency has been outstanding.
Steele Pizzella started against Merrimack.
Pizzella has completed 29 of 37 passes for 517 yards and three TDs. He gives Wake Forest a capable alternative if needed.
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Lopez is expected to be available Saturday, although his starting status remains unconfirmed. Dickert plans to increase his practice workload.
Jennings brings experience and home-field advantage, while Lopez has protected the football exceptionally well. Both can produce against ACC competition. Their decisions under pressure will matter.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. SMU Mustangs bottom line: Wake Forest has the stronger defensive record, while SMU’s experienced QB and home-field advantage make this a demanding matchup.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. SMU Mustangs Football Betting Trends
- The Demon Deacons are 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games after a win.
- Plus, Wake Forest is 6-0 straight up in their last 6 games this season.
- The Demon Deacons have covered the spread in their last 3 away games.
- The Mustangs are 25-3 straight up in their last 28 home games.
- Also, SMU is 22-8 straight up in their last 30 games after a win.
- The Mustangs have hit the over in 2 of their last 3 games this season.
Demon Deacons Mustangs Free Pick: Under 61.5
Here is my Demon Deacons Mustangs free pick: I’m taking Under 61.5. This total opened at 55.5 and has been pushed six points higher. That’s a substantial adjustment, and I’m not interested in paying extra for scoring that hasn’t happened yet.
Wake Forest has the defensive personnel to make SMU work through long possessions. The Mustangs can move the football, but their offense doesn’t need to score on every drive to win this game.
Six extra points on the total? I’ll take the discount on the under and let everyone else chase touchdowns.
Both teams have plenty riding on this ACC matchup, and that makes field position and avoiding mistakes particularly important. A couple of stalled drives or FGs instead of TDs can make a considerable difference.
I’m expecting SMU to have its moments, but Wake Forest can keep the game competitive without turning it into a shootout.
The sportsbooks have raised the bar, and I’m happy to make them prove it. This number gives me enough breathing room for some explosive plays without requiring four quarters of flawless defense.
I’m betting on the Under.
Today’s Week 11 NCAAF Free Pick
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SMU Mustangs on X
Last one at Ford for the K7NG.
🎟️: https://t.co/rAIjry27Fk https://t.co/OiDxtPruDj
— SMU Football (@SMUFB) November 10, 2026
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