2026 PGA Tour Picks
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Free Picks are here as the PGA Tour postseason begins at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. CappersPicks.com breaks down this week’s outright betting odds, course setup, handicapping angles, and best value plays as the top 70 players in the FedExCup standings begin their push toward the Tour Championship.
The pressure changes immediately once the playoffs begin.
Only the top 50 in the FedExCup standings after this tournament will advance to next week’s BMW Championship. That puts every round under the microscope, especially for players entering Memphis close to the cutoff.
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship
- Where: TPC Southwind; Memphis, Tennessee
- Date: August 13–16, 2026
- Format: Stroke Play
- Defending Champion: Justin Rose
- TV Coverage: CBS, Golf Channel
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Free Picks
The FedEx St. Jude Championship opens the PGA Tour Playoffs with one of the strongest fields bettors will see outside the majors. The top 70 in the FedExCup standings qualify for Memphis, but only 50 will leave TPC Southwind with their postseason still alive. One poor week can end an otherwise excellent season.
That creates a very different handicapping environment.
Players near the bubble can’t simply protect their position, while those safely inside the top 50 can concentrate on winning the tournament and improving their standing for the next stage.
This Week on the PGA Tour
Rory McIlroy returns to TPC Southwind after skipping this tournament last season. He already owns a Masters victory and four additional top-10 finishes this year, while his history in Memphis includes three top-5 finishes across eight appearances.
Scottie Scheffler enters the postseason sitting No. 1 in the FedExCup standings.
Scheffler has only one victory this season, but that doesn’t tell the entire story. He’s also coming off a runner-up finish at the 3M Open, his fifth second-place result of the year, and remains the clear betting favorite entering Memphis.
Tommy Fleetwood brings another interesting storyline after winning last year’s Tour Championship and FedExCup. He begins this year’s playoffs ninth in the standings and once again has an opportunity to make a deep postseason run.
TPC Southwind punishes mistakes quickly, making disciplined ball striking every bit as important as birdie production.
The field leaves little room for an off week. With McIlroy, Scheffler, Fleetwood and several other elite players in Memphis, bettors have to weigh short prices against a deep group of contenders carrying considerably more outright value.
TPC Southwind Course Preview
TPC Southwind demands precision from tee to green. Water comes into play throughout the layout, and loose approach shots can turn potential birdies into bogeys or worse in a hurry. Players who consistently control their ball should have a major advantage over four rounds.
Raw distance isn’t enough.
The best opportunities usually come from keeping drives in position and attacking greens from favorable angles. That places extra value on accurate ball strikers who can create birdie looks without repeatedly bringing trouble into play.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Trends
TPC Southwind has rewarded players who arrive with strong approach numbers and enough patience to avoid compounding mistakes. This isn’t a course where bettors should blindly chase the biggest hitters on the board.
Course history deserves attention as well.
Several of this week’s contenders have repeatedly played well in Memphis, including Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland and J.J. Spaun. In a 70-player playoff field, that familiarity can become an important separator when evaluating similarly priced golfers.
Last Year
Justin Rose opened the 2025 FedExCup Playoffs by surviving a dramatic finish against J.J. Spaun. Rose caught fire late Sunday, making six birdies across his final eight holes and four straight from Nos. 14 through 17 to force his way into the battle for the trophy.
Spaun answered with a final-round 65.
Both players finished regulation at 16-under before heading to sudden death, where neither golfer gave an inch through the first two extra holes. Rose finally ended it on the third playoff hole by converting a birdie putt from inside 12 feet.
The victory was Rose’s first PGA Tour win since 2023 and made the 45-year-old the Tour’s oldest winner since Phil Mickelson captured the 2021 PGA Championship.
Past FedEx St. Jude Championship Winners
- 2025 — Justin Rose
- 2024 — Hideki Matsuyama
- 2023 — Lucas Glover
- 2022 — Will Zalatoris
- 2021 — Tony Finau
- 2020 — Dustin Johnson
- 2019 — Patrick Reed
- 2018 — Bryson DeChambeau
- 2017 — Dustin Johnson
- 2016 — Patrick Reed
The recent winners list features everything from elite ball strikers to proven major champions. Experience certainly helps, but TPC Southwind ultimately rewards golfers who control their approach shots and stay out of trouble when the pressure increases.
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Free Picks – PGA Golf
This week’s betting board is loaded at the top, starting with Scheffler and McIlroy. Paying those prices requires plenty to go right, which makes the next few tiers particularly interesting for outright bettors hunting better value.
My card focuses on current form, previous success at TPC Southwind, and players whose approach games fit the demands of this course.
Below are my favorite outright selections for the opening event of the FedExCup Playoffs.
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Free Picks & Golf Betting Odds: Sam Burns +2000
Sam Burns enters the FedExCup Playoffs with exactly the kind of form I want behind an outright ticket. He’s finished 20th or better in each of his last five starts, including three top-5 finishes during that stretch. That consistency becomes even more attractive when you factor in his history at TPC Southwind.
Burns has already proven he can contend here.
He finished T5 in 2024 and T2 in 2021, giving him both recent form and course history on his side. At +2000, Burns offers enough win equity to justify the price without forcing bettors into the extremely short numbers sitting at the top of the board.
Our 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Free Picks start with Burns as the strongest combination of form, course fit, and outright value.
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Free Picks & Golf Betting Odds: Viktor Hovland +4100
Viktor Hovland is another golfer whose TPC Southwind history deserves attention. He finished runner-up to Hideki Matsuyama here in 2024 and owns three top-20 finishes across his last four appearances at this course.
The iron play makes him particularly interesting.
Hovland won the Travelers last month behind improved approach play, and that’s the part of his game I’ll trust most in Memphis. TPC Southwind rewards golfers who repeatedly find the correct sections of these greens, making +4100 an appealing number on a player with legitimate winning upside.
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Free Picks & Golf Betting Odds: J.J. Spaun +5400
J.J. Spaun doesn’t need anyone to explain what it takes to contend at TPC Southwind. He came within one putt of winning this tournament last season, eventually falling to Justin Rose on the third hole of their sudden-death playoff.
That runner-up finish matters.
Spaun closed with a 65 that Sunday and birdied two of his final three holes just to force extra holes. If the putter stays consistent this time around, +5400 gives us an attractive price on a golfer who has already handled this course under playoff pressure.
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Free Picks & Golf Betting Odds: Maverick McNealy +5900
Maverick McNealy enters Memphis with something the golfers near the top of the standings don’t have: immediate playoff pressure. He begins the week at No. 50, putting him directly on the cutoff for advancing to the BMW Championship.
There’s no mystery about what he needs to do.
McNealy has finished T28 and T12 at TPC Southwind over the past two seasons, so the course certainly hasn’t overwhelmed him. With his postseason potentially riding on every shot, +5900 is enough value to make him an intriguing outright option and a player worth watching in placement markets.
Best Mid-Tier Value Plays
This section of the board gets interesting quickly. Hideki Matsuyama won here in 2024, while Justin Rose returns as defending champion after surviving last year’s playoff. Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas also bring the experience needed to handle a demanding postseason opener.
Viktor Hovland remains my favorite from this range.
His combination of improving iron play and three top-20 finishes in his last four trips to TPC Southwind checks more boxes than most golfers carrying similar odds.
Darkhorse Candidates Worth Watching
The deeper section of a 70-player playoff field looks much different than a normal PGA Tour event. Jordan Spieth, Shane Lowry, Aaron Rai, Adam Scott, and Rickie Fowler aren’t typical darkhorses, yet this week’s loaded field pushes several proven winners into much more attractive price ranges.
Alex Smalley also deserves a look.
With every golfer guaranteed to face elite competition this week, I’m less interested in chasing reputation and more interested in finding players whose ball striking can survive four demanding rounds at Southwind.
Longshot Golfers With Upside
Longshots become tougher to justify in a field this strong, but that doesn’t mean the bottom of the board should be ignored. Corey Conners has the accurate ball striking this layout demands, while Sungjae Im and Brian Harman bring enough experience to outperform triple-digit prices.
In a playoff field this deep, a long price doesn’t necessarily mean you’re betting a longshot talent.
J.T. Poston is another name worth watching if his approach game cooperates. Ricky Castillo carries considerably more risk at +20000, but his price provides the kind of upside bettors should demand before reaching this far down the board.
Full Handicapping Odds To Win The 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship
The playoff opener brings a much stronger betting board than a typical PGA Tour stop. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy command the shortest prices, but there is plenty of proven win equity sitting behind them for bettors unwilling to pay a premium for the favorites.
- Scottie Scheffler +445
- Rory McIlroy +950
- Xander Schauffele +1900
- Tommy Fleetwood +1950
- Sam Burns +2000
- Matt Fitzpatrick +2100
- Cameron Young +2100
- Ludvig Aberg +2300
- Collin Morikawa +2600
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship – Mid-Tier Contenders
This range is loaded with golfers capable of winning without requiring bettors to settle for single-digit odds. Former champion Hideki Matsuyama, defending champion Justin Rose, and several other proven PGA Tour winners make this one of the strongest sections of the board.
- Chris Gotterup +3000
- Patrick Cantlay +3100
- Si Woo Kim +3300
- Hideki Matsuyama +3300
- Wyndham Clark +3700
- Robert MacIntyre +3900
- Russell Henley +4000
- Justin Thomas +4100
- Jackson Koivun +4100
- Viktor Hovland +4100
- Min Woo Lee +4700
- Justin Rose +4800
- Ben Griffin +5300
- J.J. Spaun +5400
- Tom Kim +5400
- Kurt Kitayama +5600
- Michael Thorbjornsen +5600
- Maverick McNealy +5900
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship – Darkhorse Bets
The names get longer on price without dropping nearly as much in talent. This is where bettors can find established winners and experienced players at numbers that would rarely appear in a standard PGA Tour field.
- Nicolai Hojgaard +6500
- Kristoffer Reitan +6500
- Jake Knapp +6600
- Alex Noren +6700
- Akshay Bhatia +6800
- Ryan Gerard +7000
- Rickie Fowler +7000
- Alex Smalley +7000
- Shane Lowry +7200
- Jacob Bridgeman +7200
- Keith Mitchell +7600
- Jordan Spieth +8000
- Adam Scott +8000
- Aaron Rai +8200
- Jordan Smith +8800
- Ryan Fox +9000
- Harris English +9000
- Alex Fitzpatrick +9600
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship – Longshots
A 70-player playoff field changes how I approach this end of the board. Rather than blindly chasing massive odds, I want golfers with a clear TPC Southwind fit and enough ball-striking upside to hang around if the favorites fail to separate.
- Sahith Theegala +10500
- Gary Woodland +10500
- Bud Cauley +11000
- Sungjae Im +11000
- Eric Cole +11500
- Corey Conners +11500
- Harry Hall +12500
- Michael Kim +13000
- Ryo Hisatsune +14500
- Brian Harman +14500
- J.T. Poston +15500
- Nicolas Echavarria +16000
- Max Homa +16000
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju +19500
- Ricky Castillo +20000
- Matt McCarty +21000
- Nick Taylor +22000
- Sam Stevens +23000
- Pierceson Coody +24000
- Steven Fisk +27500
- Sepp Straka +29000
- Matthias Schmid +31000
- Aldrich Potgieter +32500
- Patrick Rodgers +52500
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How to Bet the FedEx St. Jude Championship
Outrights aren’t the only way to attack a field this strong. Top-10 and Top-20 markets can offer better value on consistent ball strikers, while head-to-head matchups let bettors target golfers whose games don’t fit TPC Southwind without requiring them to pick the eventual champion. Live betting also becomes useful once we see who is actually controlling the ball around this course.
Don’t overreact to an early bogey.
Water and difficult approach shots can produce quick swings on the leaderboard, so a golfer striking it well may still offer excellent in-play value after a temporary setback.
TPC Southwind can punish one bad swing, but four days of strong ball striking usually wins out.
Weather Could Play a Role
Memphis in August can bring heat, humidity, wind, and the possibility of thunderstorms. Any interruption that softens TPC Southwind could increase scoring opportunities, while firmer conditions would place even more pressure on approach accuracy.
The tee-time draw is worth monitoring.
If weather creates a meaningful advantage for one wave during the opening two rounds, matchup and live markets may provide a better way to exploit it than the outright board.
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The FedEx St. Jude Championship gives bettors plenty of options beyond picking the winner. Top-5s, Top-10s, Top-20s, head-to-head matchups, props, and live markets can all create opportunities throughout the opening event of the FedExCup Playoffs.
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PGA Tour on X
Conquering the toughest hole @FedExChamp starts with a smart plan and precise execution.
A par on No. 5 is a victory.
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— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 12, 2026
Free Picks & PGA Golf Betting Prediction
Our 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Free Picks focus on finding value beneath the two expensive favorites as the FedExCup Playoffs begin at TPC Southwind. With only 50 players advancing to the BMW Championship, the pressure should remain high from Thursday morning through the final putt on Sunday.
Sam Burns is my favorite outright play at +2000, combining excellent recent form with a strong history in Memphis. Viktor Hovland brings improving iron play and previous success at Southwind, while J.J. Spaun returns to the course where he nearly won this tournament last year. Maverick McNealy rounds out the card at +5900 with his playoff position sitting directly on the top-50 cutoff.
Good luck this week, and check back throughout the PGA Tour postseason for more FREE PGA TOUR golf picks and betting predictions from the handicapping team at CappersPicks.com.
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