Free NFL Week 9 Pick: Commanders vs. Patriots Odds
Looking for Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots free NFL Week 9 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Commanders taking on the Patriots on Sunday, November 5th at the Gillette Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 9 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Washington New England matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 9
(3-5) Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots (2-6)
Date: Sunday, November 5th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA
NFL Week 9 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Washington +3 | New England -3
Week 9 NFL Moneyline Odds: Washington +133 | New England -162
NFL Betting Total: O/U 40
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Commanders vs. Patriots: Week 9 NFL Betting Preview
Week 9 promises another exhilarating gambling encounter for Cappers Picks readers. NFL enthusiasts, get ready for some gridiron action as the Washington Commanders (3-5, 3-4-1 ATS) go head-to-head with the New England Patriots (2-6, 4-2 ATS) this Sunday. The Gillette Stadium will be the venue, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Tune in to FOX to watch the showdown.
The Patriots endured their sixth loss of the season in a 31-17 defeat to the Dolphins in Week 8. On the other side, Washington faced a 38-31 loss to the Eagles in Week 7, marking their fifth loss in the last six games. Adding to the intrigue, Washington has traded two key defensive players, Chase Young and Montez Sweat, possibly signaling a shift in focus for the future.
Here are the odds for this matchup: Moneyline – Commanders +110 | Patriots -135, ATS – Patriots -2.5 (-105), and an O/U total line set at 40.5.
The Patriots have been dominant in their recent head-to-head matchups against Washington, winning their last four encounters and covering the spread in three of them.
Last season, the Commanders and Patriots did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Patriots have the leg up at 3-0. The Patriots also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 45 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
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Washington Commanders
Looking at the NFC-East standings, the Commanders are in 3rd place on a record of 3-5.
In the NFC, Washington is in 11th place heading into week 9. Looking at their ATS performance so far, the Commanders are above .500 at 3-4-1. Their average scoring margin is -7.1.
After trailing by seven at halftime, the Commanders struggled in the second half and ended up losing to the Eagles. The Commanders’ defense allowed a total of 374 yards with 59 coming on the ground and 315 through the air.
Offensively, the Commanders averaged 6 for a total of 472 yards. Each team finished with a push against the spread, as Washington was the 7 point underdog.
Sam Howell threw for 397 yards while completing 75% of his passes and throwing for 397. Howell threw for four touchdowns.
Washington Commanders Stats
In their matchup against the Eagles, the Commanders ran the ball 16 times, with Brian Robinson Jr. emerging as the top rusher with 59 yards. In the passing game, Sam Howell finished with 52 passes, resulting in 397 yards and a passer rating of 114.
Regarding their offense, the Commanders have an average 21.4 points per game, which places them 16th in the NFL.
The Commanders are currently 4th in tackles for loss and 5th in sacks on defense.
Their opponents are scoring an average of 28.5 points per game and gaining 374.1 yards per contest against them.
New England Patriots
In their game against the Commanders, the Patriots will aim to improve their 2-6 record. This positions them 4th in the AFC-East and 16th in the AFC. Looking at their ATS performance so far, the Patriots are above .500 at 2-6. Their average scoring margin is -11.2.
The Patriots were unable to overcome a bad first half in which they trailed by 10 and ended up losing to the Dolphins. Overall, the Patriots put up 218 yards of offense while allowing 390.
The Dolphins finished the game going 5/14 on 3rd down. New England’s 14 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 7.5 point underdogs. Mac Jones threw for 161 yards while completing 65% of his passes and throwing for 161.
Jones threw for two touchdowns.
New England Patriots Stats
On offense, the Patriots finished with 218 yards against the Dolphins. When it came to third downs, the Patriots had a 11.1% conversion rate. Leading the ground game was Rhamondre Stevenson with 39 yards, and Mac Jones contributed 161 passing yards.
In terms of offense, the Patriots are at 14.8 points per game, ranking them 28th in the NFL.
When it comes to turnovers, the New England defense has forced seven takeaways, putting them 10th in the NFL.
Overall, they are allowing 26 points per game and yielding 321.1 yards.
Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Commanders are 3-1-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Patriots are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Commanders are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Patriots have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Commanders’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Patriots’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Commanders vs. Patriots Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | +100 | +133 | +1.5 | +3 |
| Patriots | -118 | -162 | -1.5 | -3 |
4* Free Week 9 NFL Betting Prediction: Washington +3
After my analysis of this matchup featuring the Commanders and Patriots, I’m backing the Commanders to cover on the road. They are currently 3-point underdogs, and I see them covering at this number.
Not only does our model have a projected total of 41 points in this matchup, but the eye test has me feeling this line of 40 is low. I like Washington and New England to exceed 40 points.
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Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
What’s in the bag?
Looking at what's ahead for New England in 2023.
Patriots Unfiltered Mailbag: https://t.co/NtJSdIh0q1 pic.twitter.com/OCXYHzJync
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 31, 2023
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