
Free NFL Week 14 Pick: Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds
Looking for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons free NFL Week 14 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Buccaneers taking on the Falcons on Sunday, December 10th at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 14 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Tampa Bay Atlanta matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 14
(5-7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
Date: Sunday, December 10th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA
NFL Week 14 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Tampa Bay +2.5 | Atlanta -2.5
Week 14 NFL Moneyline Odds: Tampa Bay +115 | Atlanta -139
NFL Betting Total: O/U 39
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Let’s discuss their knack for keeping it tight. Whenever these two teams go head-to-head, it often ends up being a close game. Take their head-to-head history, for example.
The Falcons and Buccaneers have faced off 60 times.
Atlanta has won 30 of those games, and Tampa Bay has also won 30.
It’s as even as it gets.
The first 2023/24 season matchup (10/22/23) between the teams saw, the Falcons win with a 16-13 score over Buccaneers in Tampa. Going into the game, it was the Falcons who were the underdogs with a +2.5 point spread, and they secured an ATS win.
Before the game, the over/under line was set at 37.5 points, resulting an under for the over/under result.
A Younghoe Koo FG from 51 yards with no time left on the clock won it for Atlanta.
This was an incredibly close game, and I think we can expect something similar this week, since neither team has really improved by leaps and bounds since. TOP was even 29 minutes to 30 minutes in that one, Atlanta had 20 1st downs to 21 for Tampa.
Atlanta had 400 yards, to 329 for TB, both struggled on 3rd downs, the two teams really mirrored each other.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Through 12 games, the Buccaneers have a record of 5-7.
This mark has them 2nd in the NFC-South and 10th in the NFC. The Buccaneers have a 7-5 record against the spread this season. So far this season, their average scoring margin is -1.
Even though, the Buccaneers’ offense picked up a below-average number of first-downs, they still went on to beat the Panthers. The Buccaneers finished with 322 yards of total offense compared to 282 for the Panthers.
The Panthers averaged 4.8 yards per passing attempt and 3.9 yards per rush.
Even though Tampa Bay won straight-up, they did not cover the spread as 3.5 point favorites. Baker Mayfield threw for 202 yards while completing 48% of his passes and throwing for 202.
Mayfield threw for one touchdown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stats
On offense, the Buccaneers finished with 322 yards against the Panthers. When it came to third downs, the Buccaneers had a 40% conversion rate.
Leading the ground game was Rachaad White with 84 yards, and Baker Mayfield contributed 202 passing yards.
Regarding their offense, the Buccaneers have an average 19.4 points per game, which places them 20th in the NFL.
Looking at Tampa Bay’s defense, they currently stand 10th in points allowed. Opponents have been averaging 20.4 points per game and 356.9 yards per contest against them.
Just give me some of what Mike Evans has been eating this season. Dude is ballin’.
Atlanta Falcons
Through 12 games, the Falcons are 6-6. In the NFC-South standings, they are in 1st place which puts them 4th in the NFC. When it comes to the spread, the Falcons have a 4-8 record.
Heading into week 14, their scoring margin is at -1.2 (per game).
Going into the fourth-quarter of their game vs. the Jets, the Falcons led by five and held that lead for the win. Offensively, the Falcons went 4/14 on 3rd down and finished with a total of 194 yards of offense.
The Jets ended the game with 259 yards. Going into the game, Atlanta was favored by 2 and went on to cover the spread. Desmond Ridder threw for 121 yards while completing 44% of his passes and throwing for 121.
Ridder threw for one touchdown. Atlanta goes for the sweep vs. Tampa this week, can they do it? (It would also be their 3rd win in a row too!)
Atlanta Falcons Stats
In their matchup against the Jets, the Falcons ran the ball 34 times, with Bijan Robinson emerging as the top rusher with 53 yards.
In the passing game, Ridder finished with 27 passes, resulting in 121 yards and a passer rating of 70.
So far this season, the Atlanta offense has been averaging 18.8 points per game, ranking them 21st in the league.
When it comes to yards allowed, the Falcons rank 10th in the league, conceding an average of 315.9 yards per contest. Atlanta’s defense has allowed 20 points per game, which has them 7th in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Buccaneers are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Buccaneers are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Falcons have gone 3-7 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Buccaneers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Falcons’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | +112 | +115 | +2 | +2.5 |
| Falcons | -132 | -139 | -2 | -2.5 |
4* Free Week 14 NFL Betting Prediction: Tampa Bay +2.5
Atlanta comes into Week 14 4-2 SU at home, while the Bucs are 2-4 on the road. What I like about Tampa this week however is the fact that their defense is coming off a strong performance, giving up just 282 yards of offense and should build on this vs. the Falcons.
I found some NFL Week 14 gambling stats from the web without copying them directly. Tampa Bay has performed well in recent seasons, with a 4-2 ATS record in their last 6 games and a 5-2 SU record against Atlanta.
When on the road, the Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS. They also shine in December, going 9-3 SU. On the other hand, Atlanta has struggled, going 3-8 ATS overall and 1-4 ATS at home.
Despite entering as 2.5-point underdogs on the road, I like the Bucs to cover the spread. There’s a ton on the line here on Sunday, so I’m saying the Bucs spoil the Falcons home party. Baker to the rescue.
The analysis we’ve been running for this game has the Buccaneers and Falcons finishing with a combined 37 points. With the over/under line sitting at 39, I’m getting a bet down on the under.
For those interested in Over/Under bets, Atlanta’s games tend to go UNDER, with 13 of their last 18 doing so. The total has also gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 games against NFC South opponents.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has seen 7 of their last 10 games go UNDER. If you’re considering the Under, the Falcons’ games in December have gone 6-0, and the Buccaneers’ games following a straight-up win have gone 4-1 in favor of the Under.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
https://twitter.com/AtlantaFalcons/status/1732182204715880701
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