Free Week 12 Prediction: 49ers vs. Saints NFL Odds
Looking for San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints Free NFL Week 12 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the 49ers taking on the Saints on Sunday, November 27th, 2022 at Levi’s Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 12 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this San Francisco New Orleans Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 12
San Francisco 49ers (6-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (4-7)
Date: Sunday, November 27th, 2022
Time: 4:25 PM EST
Venue: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
NFL Week 12 ATS Betting Lines: 49ers -9.5 (-110) | Saints +9.5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 12 Moneyline Odds: 49ers -480 | Saints +350
NFL Week 12 NFL Betting Total: O/U 42.0
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San Francisco hosts the Saints looking to continue their hot stretch of play and solidify their spot in the NFC playoff picture.
The 49ers seem like everyone’s new trendy pick to win the NFC and for good reason. They’ve won three in a row and the defense seems like it’s hitting its stride, limiting opponents to just 13.3 ppg over that stretch. Sometimes sports is just about getting hot at the right time and the Niners seem to be doing just that.
New Orleans is headed in the opposite direction. They’ve got far more questions than answers coming into week 12 and now catch one of the tougher road sites in the NFL. Andy Dalton has curiously remained the starter of a 4-7 squad but that could change with a loss this week, effectively removing them from any playoff scenarios.
San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy G tends to take a lot of heat for what he is, or maybe more for what he isn’t. He’ll never be a top 10 starter in the league, but he did throw for 4 touchdowns on Monday Night Football to bring the Niners to 6-4.
DVOA likes what they’ve done through the air too. Football Outsiders’ metric places SF 5th in pass O by DVOA, so they see them as not only potent but sustainable. Elijah Mitchell returned to the backfield and out-carried McCaffrey again, which is curious at best.
Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle form a lethal trio that the Cardinals were dissected by, and we should expect that to continue. Garoppolo is 3rd in adjusted EPA/play among QB’s. A lot of healthy signs exist for the Niner offense.
49er teams of the last 15 years have been remembered for their elite defense above all, but this years squad can rival those of the past. DVOA places the 2022 unit 7th in overall D and 3rd against the rush. They generate the fifth-most pressure in the NFL and the Saints are below average in adjusted sack rate allowed.
New Orleans Saints
Andy Dalton, while he hasn’t led the Saints to a winning record, places 14th in adj. EPA/play among QB’s. It’s a respectable number that tells us there are more problems with this team than him.
Kamara’s return to the lineup has been a boon for the rushing offense, but they’ll have their hands full with SF. Although, they rank just 20th in EPA/rush.
Chris Olave looks every bit of the part the Saints expected him to be and he’s on pace to win the NFL OROY award; he’s on pace for 1,174 yards and 5 TD. The offense as a whole is just 16th in off. points/drive.
The Saints defense has been far more stout against the run than the pass. That’s likely due to the fact that the Saints generate the 4th least pressure in the league, which means signal callers have more time to let routes develop.
Normally facing the Niners, you’d want a stiffer rush D, but as we witnessed on MNF, the Niners can now beat you multiple ways since they hit their stride. The defense has been the Achilles heel for the Saints this year. The offense has busted out, but often they can’t stop the other team from outpacing them.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans’s last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans’s last 8 games when playing San Francisco
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
- San Francisco is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
4* Free Week 12 NFL Betting Prediction: SF -9.5
Betting trends offer more information. The Niners are 2-1 ATS as home favorites this year, covering by an average of 7.5 points.
Conversely, the Saints are 0-2 ATS as road underdogs failing to cover by 7.3 points. Given the trends and the current directions of both teams I’m confident laying the points.
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