Free NFL Week 16 Pick: 49ers vs. Dolphins Odds
Looking for San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the 49ers taking on the Dolphins on Sunday, December 22nd at the Hard Rock Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 16 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this San Francisco Miami matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 16
(6-8) San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins (6-8)
Date: Sunday, December 22nd
Time: 4:25 ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) San Francisco +1.5 | Miami -1.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: San Francisco +103 | Miami -123
NFL Betting Total: O/U 46
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The Week 16 clash between the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins has all the ingredients for a thrilling showdown.
Both sitting at 6-8, these teams are fighting to salvage their seasons, but they’re heading in starkly different directions. Miami, with a series edge at 8-6, comes in as a slight favorite (-1.5) and boasts a 4-2 record in its last six games, including a strong 4-1 mark as a favorite.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Dolphins have the leg up at 2-1.
Against the spread, each team went 1-1-1 and finished with an over/under mark of 2-1. These games averaged a combined 54 points per contest.
On the other side, the 49ers are reeling, with a 1-5 ATS record over their last six and a rough 1-6 ATS stretch on the road.
San Francisco 49ers
Heading into week 16, the 49ers hold a 6-8 record, placing them 4th in the NFC West. They have a -0.4 scoring margin and are 5-9 against the spread. As favorites, they are 5-7 ATS and 0-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 7-7, with their games averaging 45.3 points compared to an average line of 46.5.
In our power rankings, the 49ers are 7th, but they have just a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs. They missed an opportunity to improve their record in week 15, losing 12-6 to the Rams.
Before that, they beat the Bears 38-13 in week 14, snapping a three-game losing streak.
San Francisco 49ers Stats
Heading into week 16, the 49ers sit 14th in our offensive power rankings. They are 13th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 22.4 points per game, and 8th in yards per game with 365.1. San Francisco ranks 10th in passing yards per game (231.6) despite being 25th in pass attempts. On the ground, they are 7th in both rushing attempts and rushing yards per game, averaging 133.5 yards.
Brock Purdy struggled in week 15, posting a passer rating of 45 against the Rams, with 142 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. He was sacked three times.
George Kittle led the team with 61 receiving yards, and Isaac Guerendo had 57 rushing yards on 16 carries.
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Despite not recording any sacks, the 49ers’ defense held the Rams to just 160 passing yards in their 12-6 loss. The 49ers defended the run well, allowing just 3.7 yards per attempt, but they gave up 142 rushing yards on 38 attempts. Los Angeles finished with 302 total yards in the game.
San Francisco’s defense also kept the Rams to a 26.7% third-down conversion rate and limited them to 59.3% completions. Although the 49ers didn’t allow any passing touchdowns, their inability to generate a pass rush impacted the game.
Miami Dolphins
Heading into week 16, the Dolphins sit at 6-8, putting them 2nd in the AFC East. Our power rankings have Miami 15th in the league, and they have a 4.9% chance of making the playoffs.
In week 15, the Dolphins missed an opportunity to improve their postseason chances, losing 20-12 to the Texans. Miami was a 2.5-point underdog in that game, and the teams combined for 32 points, falling short of the 46.5-point line.
Miami has a -2.6 scoring margin this season and is 5-9 against the spread. They have failed to cover in three straight games, including their week 14 win over the Jets, where they won 32-26 but couldn’t cover the 6.5-point spread.
The 58 points in that game went over the 45.5-point line, giving the Dolphins a 6-8 O/U record this season.
Miami Dolphins Stats
Miami’s offense ranks 19th in our power rankings as they head into week 16, averaging 19.7 points per game, which puts them 21st in the NFL. They are 19th in passing yards per game (222.6) and 14th in passing attempts, with 35 per game.
On the ground, they rank 24th in rushing yards per game, with 101.4, on 26.3 attempts per game.
In week 15, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 196 yards, going 29/40, with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. Malik Washington led the team with 5 catches for 52 yards, while De’Von Achane had 41 rushing yards on 12 carries. Miami failed to score in the 1st and 4th quarters, converting 4 of 13 3rd downs and 1 of 2 red zone attempts.
In their 20-12 loss to the Texans, the Dolphins’ defense allowed just 104 passing yards but gave up two passing touchdowns. Miami’s run defense was also solid, allowing only 77 yards on 20 attempts.
The Dolphins did manage to sack the quarterback four times and won the QB hit differential by three.
Despite their efforts, the Dolphins gave up 181 total yards to the Texans and struggled on third downs, allowing Houston to convert 38.5% of their third down attempts.
The Texans found success through the air, with a 69.2% completion percentage and two passing touchdowns.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Football Betting Trends
- The 49ers are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Dolphins are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the 49ers are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Dolphins have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the 49ers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Dolphins’ have an over/under record of 0-3 in their last 3 games at home.
49ers vs. Dolphins Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -115 | +103 | -1 | +1.5 |
| Dolphins | -105 | -123 | +1 | -1.5 |
4* Free Week 16 NFL Betting Prediction: Miami -1.5
The last time these teams met, San Francisco dominated in a 33-17 victory, but that feels like a distant memory for a squad that has struggled defensively in recent weeks.
Miami’s balanced offense and home-field advantage at Hard Rock Stadium could prove decisive, especially against a Niners team that’s dropped four of its last five straight up.
Add to that the Dolphins’ 4-2 record in their last six head-to-head games in Miami, and it’s clear they’ve had the upper hand at home.
Our projections have the 49ers coming out losers in this one 31-24 in their week 16 matchup against the Dolphins. With this projection, the best way to bet this game is to take the Fins to cover the -1.5 spread.
For an over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 55 points and the O/U line sitting at 46 points.
Expect fireworks in this late-afternoon showdown as these teams battle for pride and position in Week 16!
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Breakin’ out the aquas 🐬 pic.twitter.com/jxHV1FmFac
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 20, 2024
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