Free Week 10 Prediction: 49ers vs. Chargers NFL Odds
Looking for San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Chargers Free NFL Week 10 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the 49ers taking on the Chargers on Sunday, November 13th, 2022 at Levi’s Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 10 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this San Francisco – Los Angeles Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 10
San Francisco 49ers (4-4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
Date: Sunday, November 13th, 2022
Time: 8:20 PM EST
Venue: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
NFL Week 10 ATS Betting Lines: 49ers -7 (-110) | Chargers +7 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 10 Moneyline Odds: 49ers -319| Chargers +248
NFL Week 10 NFL Betting Total: O/U 46.5
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San Francisco returns from bye to host a Chargers squad that was fortunate to escape Atlanta with a win.
San Francisco manages to stay in the NFC playoff picture, seemingly every year. Lose your starting QB in week 2? No problem, Jimmy G steps up. Lose Elijah Mitchell and a slew of RB’s? No problem, we’ll add CMC. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that Kyle Shanahan owns the Rams and Sean McVay who shares the division.
The Niners are chasing the Seahawks in the NFC West, so each game is equally important. Although, San Francisco does hold the #7 seed in the NFC.
The Chargers sit in a similar position. Current owners of the #7 seed in the AFC and behind the Chiefs in the AFC West, they also need each game every week. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Chargers are dealing with a slew of injuries and that limits their top-end potential. Pythagorean expectation alone has the Chargers more like a 3.5 win team, so we have to look beyond their winning record to know who they really are.
San Francisco 49ers
We know how San Francisco sees themselves with their acquisition of Christian McCaffrey. They view themselves as contenders.
Expectations are important. It determines preparation, focus and effort. Having said that, I don’t think we need to worry about the Niners coming out flat in this spot, especially coming off a bye week.
At this point, DVOA sees the Niners as a middling team, which is corroborated with their .500 record. Although, the passing offense is more favored, coming in at 7th. Surprisingly the rushing offense doesn’t profile very well, but McCaffrey will certainly boost their effectiveness.
They pretty well dominated the Rams before the break, winning 31-14 in a game where LA was never really close. Again, Shanahan owns McVay. San Fran ran a balanced attack in that contest, with a 22-23 run-pass split, though they will likely go run-heavy against a Chargers squad that ranks 29th in rush yards allowed per game at 145.5 and just allowed 201 yards to Atlanta.
The Niner offense is also expected to have reinforcements post-bye with Deebo Samuel, Elijah Mitchell and Jauan Jennings due to return.
Defensively, SF rates out well against the run, ranking 4th in rush D by DVOA. The Chargers have struggled to run the ball all season, so that phase of the game shouldn’t present a threat. The defense is also projected to receive reinforcements with Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw, Dre Greenlaw and Jason Verrett likely to return.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have been benefactors of luck this season, evidenced by the discrepancy in their record and their Pythagorean expectation. In that respect, we should expect some regression in the near future.
It’s been mentioned, but the Chargers really struggle to run the ball. DVOA ranks them the 30th rushing offense and 27th in EPA/rush which suggests they’ve been even worse than their performances. Although, Austin Ekeler made his return recently and figures to boost the offense.
Having said that, Herbert is going to shoulder most of the offensive responsibility. Mike Williams just met the IR and Keenan Allen hasn’t played in nearly a month, so Herbert has his work cut out for him. You can really only get so far with Josh Palmer as your top option. Herbert has thrown an interception in each of the last three games, but his attempts have been sky high. The Niners will need to capitalize on his giveaways.
I’ve trashed the Chargers run defense (for good reason) but their pass defense profiles well, coming in at 10th. Although, I could see San Francisco avoiding the pass, knowing they can mitigate turnover risk and abuse the Chargers in the trenches. Although the Chargers don’t generate much pressure, the Niners are just 19th in adjusted sack rate allowed, meaning we could see Jimmy G under fire.
NFL Betting Trends:
- LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
- LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
- San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
4* Free Week 10 NFL Betting Prediction:
I’m somewhat surprised to see the line is this high. While the Chargers have struggled at times and San Francisco profiles to run all over the place, 7 points seems like a lot. But McCaffrey should absolutely eat in this contest.
At some point, all of the losses on offense for the Chargers will be insurmountable, and their loss against Seattle and close call with Atlanta bear credence to that point. They’re also due to see some regression as the luck factor diminishes.
Weighing all things, I like the Niners to cover their side at home.
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