Free Week 9 Prediction: Saints vs. Ravens NFL Odds
Looking for New Orleans Saints vs. Baltimore Ravens Free NFL Week 9 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Saints taking on the Ravens on Monday, November 7th, 2022 at Caesars Superdome. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 9 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New Orleans – Baltimore Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 9
New Orleans Saints (3-5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (5-3)
Date: Monday, November 7th, 2022
Time: 8:15 PM EST
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
NFL Week 9 ATS Betting Lines: Saints +3 (-110) | Ravens -3 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 9 Moneyline Odds: Saints +121 | Ravens -151
NFL Week 9 NFL Betting Total: O/U 48.0
- *Click Here* Check out our Live Betting Odds for this game!
- *Click Here* Check out our Updated Sportsbook Bonuses for today!
- SCROLL DOWN FOR our Saints Ravens Free Pick!
The Saints saved their season by winning convincingly against the Raiders. Baltimore continues to solidify their playoff bid by taking control of the NFC North.
The Dennis Allen era in New Orleans has seemingly been appraised on a week-by-week basis in 2022. Losing Sean Payton was always going to be an uphill battle, but Allen not only has the expectations of winning in the absence of their longtime coach, but also has a history of losing as the man in charge, going back to his tenure in the mid 2000’s with the then Oakland Raiders.
3-5 is a lukewarm result after 8 weeks, one in which you feel okay, but not great. They’ve willfully benched Jameis for Andy Dalton, which isn’t something any of us saw coming, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see that change. As they’re currently constructed, New Orleans is an outside shot at pulling one of the three wildcards, but don’t figure to go far if they do.
Baltimore is a different story almost entirely. They’ve got an MVP quarterback, albeit one they don’t seem eager to pay, they come into this matchup on a 2 game winning streak and prognosticators are still bullish on their chances of making a deep playoff run. A Baltimore win would give both teams their clear direction for the year, even if they’re going in opposite directions.
New Orleans Saints
What are the Saints? Or maybe better said, Who dat?
They’ve moved to Andy Dalton as their fulltime starter, a questionable decision at best, they don’t have an elite offense (19th) and the defense has been just okay in limiting scoring. Their record does a better job of simplifying exactly who they are: a below average team.
The Saints are frustrating, because they show you glimpses of an explosive offense, but you never know when it will show up. That makes evaluating the Saints a tough job. Pythagorean expectation says the Saints are more like a 4-4 team, which looks better on paper, but again the unpredictability is a thorn.
The rushing offense for New Orleans has actually been pretty good when you look at the data. I think most teams would take their #6 rushing offense by DVOA, but with Andy Dalton at the helm, the passing offense is always going to be limited.
Taysom Hill has taken a much more prominent position with the offense in the last few weeks and he’s been surprisingly very productive. Maybe it’s because he’s given a chance to affect the game in so many ways, but he’s a consideration for opposing defenses in their weekly prep.
DVOA likes the Saints defense but prior to their shutout of the Raiders, New Orleans had allowed nearly 35 ppg in their last three. The only win they secured in that stretch was because the offense scored nearly 40 points. The Ravens are the NFL’s #2 offense by DVOA, a tall task for a generous Saints defense.
Baltimore Ravens
While DVOA loves the Ravens offense, their scoring tells a different story. The decision to not kick a field goal nearly tore the fabric of the team apart in a loss to the Bills, but since that game the Ravens have only averaged 21.8 ppg. The disparity between their scalar scoring number and their sterling DVOA mark tells us that we should expect some positive regression.
They piecemealed their way to 231 rushing yards against what has been traditionally a strong Bucs run D. Tampa Bay did a nice job of stopping Mark Andrews but rookie tight end Isaiah Likely contributed 77 yards and a score. Rashod Bateman was announced with an injury yesterday that will cause him to miss some time, which is a big loss for a weak WR corps.
From an EPA standpoint, the Ravens have been balanced in their run and pass effectiveness. No doubt, Lamar’s mobility props their rushing EPA somewhat, but having multiple attack strategies is never a bad thing. The Saints are the NFL’s best rush defense in terms of EPA/rush allowed, so the Ravens may be attacking through the air.
The Ravens have been a poor defense from an EPA/play allowed perspective (28th), but does not account for opponent. I think it’s fair to say that giving up 30 points to the Bills is not the same as giving up 30 to the Texans, so let’s see what DVOA says. There is some optimism in the data, ranking the Ravens 16th overall and 12th against the pass. They will be highly vulnerable to the Saints rush.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games when playing New Orleans
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans’s last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans’s last 5 games when playing Baltimore
4* Free Week 9 NFL Betting Prediction: o48.0
This is going to be one of the higher implied game totals coming into Week 9. The track record tells us the Saints have been allowing oodles of points and the Ravens are weak against the run, which favors New Orleans.
Baltimore has underwhelmed this season, which is funny to say at 5-3 with their losses to teams with a combined record of 17-6. The Ravens do have the rest and prep advantage coming off of their mini bye.
The nice way to describe the Saints is that they’re frisky so I think they can push Baltimore enough that scoring will be high. I’ll make a bold prediction: Andy Dalton gets pulled this game. With gunslinger Jameis and Taysom Hill getting spot duty throughout, I like plenty of points.
Give me the over in this one.
If you’re looking for more NFL picks like this New Orleans Saints vs. Baltimore Ravens Matchup we’ll be providing 4* free NFL predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free NFL Football Picks!
Register here for a FREE NFL Football Betting Account Now for Daily Free Picks & More Special Offers!
