Free NFL Pick: Saints vs. Falcons Odds
Looking for New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Saints taking on the Falcons on 1/4 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in Atlanta. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Saints Falcons matchup.
2025 NFL Handicapping – New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
(6-10) New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
Date: Jan 04, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA
NFL Moneyline Odds: Saints +144 | Falcons -172 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Saints +3 | Falcons -3
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 44.5
Here’s why I’m backing an Atlanta ATS bet below in my Saints Falcons free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Saints vs. Falcons Gameday
Currently, the New Orleans Saints are preparing for their season finale against the Atlanta Falcons. This NFC South matchup will take place at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, a venue known for its retractable roof. Despite the cold weather forecast, the indoor setting ensures that playing conditions remain optimal for both teams.
The Saints, led by head coach Kellen Moore, have experienced a challenging season with a record of 6-10. However, they have shown recent improvement, winning their last four games. Offensive Coordinator Doug Nussmeier and Defensive Coordinator Brandon Staley will aim to capitalize on this momentum.
Meanwhile, the Falcons hold a 7-9 record under head coach Raheem Morris. Playing at home provides a slight edge, but their 3-4 home record suggests some inconsistency. Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson and Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich will look to secure a positive end to the season.
Historically, these teams have been competitive against each other, with the Falcons winning their last encounter 24-10. Both teams have seen highs and lows this season, making this an unpredictable matchup. Week 18, New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons, we’re all hoping a great game is in store.
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New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds & Last 5
Interestingly, the odds for the Saints show a moneyline of +144, making them the underdog. On the other hand, the Falcons are listed at -173, suggesting they are favored. The spread stands at +3.0 for the Saints and -3.0 for the Falcons, indicating a competitive game is expected.
Looking back at recent performances, the Saints have been on a winning streak, securing victories in their last four games. Their most recent win against the Tennessee Titans showcased their improving form. Conversely, the Falcons have also been successful in their past three outings, including a narrow win against the Rams.
In head-to-head encounters, the Falcons have had the upper hand recently, winning their last meeting 24-10. Historically, their games often result in close scores. With both teams finishing the season strongly, Sunday’s contest may be another tight battle.
Falcons Stats
To begin with, the Atlanta Falcons have shown strong offensive capabilities this season. They rank 5th in passing yards with 4,068 and 10th in rushing yards with 2,219. This balanced attack has helped them secure a rank of 13th in total points scored, amassing 389 points last season.
Furthermore, the Falcons’ recent games indicate a positive momentum. They have won their last three games, including a tight victory against the Los Angeles Rams with a score of 27-24. Bijan Robinson has been a standout player, contributing significantly with 195 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in their most recent game.
However, the Falcons’ defense has faced challenges, allowing 423 points last season, ranking 22nd in opponent scoring. Despite this, they have shown strengths in interceptions, ranking 8th with 12 opponent passing interceptions. Jessie Bates III and Xavier Watts have been key defensive players, each securing interceptions in recent games.
Finally, injuries could impact the Falcons’ performance in this game. Key players like Kyle Pitts Sr. and Drake London are dealing with knee issues and were limited in practice. The team will need to adapt and rely on depth to maintain their recent winning streak against the New Orleans Saints.
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Saints Stats
Firstly, the New Orleans Saints have shown a strong offensive front this season. They ranked 14th in rushing yards with 1,954 yards and had a passing yardage of 3,488, placing them 23rd. Despite their offensive strength, they have a third down percentage of 35.2%, which is 24th in the league.
Additionally, on the defensive side, the Saints have made their mark with 39 sacks, ranking 10th. They also excel in interceptions, with 14, placing them 6th. However, they have struggled to contain opponent offensive yards, ranking 30th with 6,459 yards allowed.
Recently, the Saints have been on a winning streak, claiming victories in their last four games. Their latest win against the Tennessee Titans ended with a score of 34-26, where Tyler Shough threw for 333 yards and two touchdowns. Chris Olave has been a standout receiver, accumulating 119 yards and a touchdown in the same game.
However, the Saints are dealing with several injuries that could impact their performance. Key players like Alvin Kamara and Cesar Ruiz are listed as day to day. Meanwhile, several players, including Will Clapp and Erik McCoy, are out for the season, which could challenge the team’s depth as they prepare for the Falcons.
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Saints vs. Falcons QB Matchup
Kirk Cousins leads the Atlanta Falcons with a consistent performance this season. He has accumulated 1,541 passing yards over 10 games, ranking him 33rd in the league. With 9 passing touchdowns and 4 interceptions, Cousins provides stability and experience to the Falcons’ offense.
In this upcoming game, Cousins is projected to throw for 217.5 yards and 1.6 touchdowns. His ability to manage the game and avoid turnovers will be crucial for the Falcons’ success against the Saints. Cousins’ experience will be pivotal in guiding the Falcons through this important matchup.
On the other side, Tyler Shough has been a key figure for the New Orleans Saints. Over 10 games, he has thrown for 2,125 yards, placing him 25th in the league. Shough has also contributed 9 passing touchdowns and 5 interceptions, showcasing his capability to lead the Saints’ offense.
For this game, Shough is expected to pass for 233.2 yards and 1.4 touchdowns. His performance will be essential in keeping the Saints competitive against the Falcons. Shough’s ability to make plays and maintain composure will be critical as the Saints aim to finish the season strong.
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Football Betting Trends
- The Saints have covered the spread in their last 4 regular season games as underdogs.
- Also, New Orleans has a perfect 4-0 record against the spread in their recent away games.
- In addition, the Falcons have gone 3-0 against the spread in their last 3 regular season games.
- Atlanta has a strong over trend at home, going 3-0 in their last 3 home games in terms of totals.
- The Saints have won their last 4 games straight up in regular season play.
- Meanwhile, the Falcons have hit the over in 7 of their last 9 regular season games.
Saints Falcons Free Pick: Falcons -3
The Saints have been strong against the spread as underdogs, covering in their last four regular season games. However, their overall record this season is 6-10, and they have struggled both at home and on the road.
On the other hand, the Falcons have a slightly better record at 7-9 and have shown a strong trend of hitting the over in recent games. Their recent 3-0 record against the spread also indicates they are playing well.
Considering the Falcons’ recent success against the spread and their performance in home games, picking the Falcons ATS seems like the best choice. The Saints’ recent straight-up wins are impressive, but the Falcons’ current form gives them the edge in this matchup.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
🚨 WEEK 18 SCHEDULE 🚨 pic.twitter.com/c4kM67GCmR
— NFL (@NFL) December 29, 2025
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