Free NFL Week 12 Pick: Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds
Looking for New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Patriots taking on the Dolphins on Sunday, November 24th at the Hard Rock Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 12 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New England Miami matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 12
(3-8) New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (4-6)
Date: Sunday, November 24th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New England +7 | Miami -7
NFL Moneyline Odds: New England +274 | Miami -346
NFL Betting Total: O/U 46
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The storied Patriots-Dolphins rivalry is back in full swing for Week 12, and this matchup has all the ingredients of a classic AFC East battle. Historically, Miami has dominated New England at home, boasting a 42-17 edge in Florida and winning the last four matchups at Hard Rock Stadium.
In their 118-game series history, including three postseason battles, the Dolphins lead 63-55. Their most recent encounter was a gritty 15-10 Miami victory earlier this season, showcasing the grind-it-out nature of this rivalry.
This week, the Dolphins are laying seven points as home favorites, with a total set at 46. Miami’s impressive November record—12-2 straight up in their last 14 November games—only adds to their aura of home dominance.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Dolphins have the leg up at 3-0. The Dolphins also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0.
These games averaged a combined total of 37 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
New England Patriots
Heading into week 12, the Patriots sit at 3-8 after a 28-22 loss to the Rams in week 11. New England was unable to build on their week 10 win over the Bears, which snapped a 5-game losing streak. Prior to that, they had a close loss to the Titans and a win over the Jets in week 8.
With a -6 scoring margin, the Patriots are 4-6-1 against the spread and have been the underdog in all of their games. They rank 27th in our power rankings and have a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs.
New England Patriots Stats
Heading into week 12, the Patriots rank 25th in our offensive power rankings. They are 28th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.5, and 31st in yards per game, with 281.2. Despite ranking 13th in passing attempts, New England is 30th in passing yards per game, averaging 165.9. On the ground, they are 21st in rushing attempts and rushing yards per game, with 115.3.
In week 11, Drake Maye threw for 282 yards, completing 30 of 40 passes with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Kendrick Bourne led the team with 5 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown, while Rhamondre Stevenson had 73 rushing yards on 20 carries. The Patriots converted 6 of 14 third downs and scored on 2 of 5 red zone trips in their loss to the Rams.
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In their 28-22 loss to the Rams, the Patriots’ defense gave up 295 passing yards on just 18 completions, with Los Angeles averaging 10.9 yards per attempt through the air. New England struggled to generate pressure, finishing with no sacks and losing both the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials. The Patriots also allowed four passing touchdowns and a 66.7% completion percentage to the Rams.
On the ground, the Patriots gave up 107 rushing yards on 24 attempts, with New England’s defense allowing 402 total yards in the game. Despite their struggles, the Patriots did limit the Rams to a 25% third-down conversion rate.
Miami Dolphins
Miami has now won two straight games, including a 34-19 victory over the Raiders in week 11. The Dolphins were 8-point favorites and covered the spread, improving their record to 4-6. Before that, they beat the Rams 23-15 in week 10, snapping a three-game losing streak. Miami is currently 2nd in the AFC East and 9th in the conference standings.
According to our projections, the Dolphins have a 14.5% chance of making the playoffs. They rank 18th in our NFL power rankings. Against the spread, Miami is 4-6 this season and has covered in three consecutive games.
Miami Dolphins Stats
Heading into week 12, the Dolphins are 21st in our offensive power rankings. They sit 25th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 18.1, and are 22nd in passing yards per game with 197. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 11, completing 28 of 36 passes without an interception.
Miami ranks 9th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game and 11th in rushing yards, averaging 122 per game. De’Von Achane had 73 yards on 17 carries in week 11. The Dolphins are also 9th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 42.6%.
In their 34-19 win over the Raiders, the Dolphins’ defense gave up 268 passing yards on 30 completions. The Dolphins also allowed a 69.8% completion percentage and 2 passing touchdowns. Las Vegas had a tough time establishing the run, with just 60 yards on 16 attempts. However, Miami did struggle on third downs, allowing the Raiders to convert 57.1% of their chances.
Miami’s defense did come up with three sacks and an interception, and they also won the QB hit battle by two.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Dolphins are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Patriots are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Dolphins have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Patriots’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Dolphins’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +215 | +274 | +6.5 | +7 |
| Dolphins | -265 | -347 | -6.5 | -7 |
4* Free Week 12 NFL Betting Prediction: Miami -7
The Dolphins are laying seven points as home favorites, with a total set at 46. Miami’s impressive November record—12-2 straight up in their last 14 November games—only adds to their aura of home dominance.
Meanwhile, New England has struggled mightily in Miami, covering the spread just once in their last eight games against the Dolphins and suffering a 1-6 ATS skid in South Florida.
The Patriots’ road woes this season only compound the challenge, as they’ve managed just one outright win in their last five away games.
The Dolphins’ explosive offense and defensive consistency make them tough to beat in their backyard, especially against a Patriots team still searching for answers.
With live betting odds favoring Miami heavily on the moneyline (-346), it’s clear the oddsmakers see a one-sided affair.
Our point spread pick for this week 12 matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins is to take the Dolphins to cover as home favorites. The point spread line currently has the Dolphins at -7, and we have them winning by a score of 26-16.
As for the best way to bet the over/under, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 42 points and the line sitting at 46 points.
Divisional games often come with surprises, so expect high energy, plenty of drama, and maybe even a few twists in this Thanksgiving-week showdown!
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New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Get your phones ready for Sunday’s white-out 📱 #WallpaperWednesday pic.twitter.com/97QOKExTjr
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) November 20, 2024
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