Free Week 3 Prediction: Vikings vs. Lions NFL Odds
Looking for Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Free NFL Week 3 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Vikings taking on the Lions on Sunday, September 25th, 2022 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 3 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Minnesota – Detroit matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 3
Minnesota Vikings (1-1) vs. Detroit Lions (1-1)
Date: Sunday, September 25th, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
NFL Week 3 ATS Betting Lines: Vikings -6 (-110) | Lions +6 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 3 Moneyline Odds: Vikings -255 | Lions +202
NFL Week 3 NFL Betting Total: O/U 53.5
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Minnesota looks to stay undefeated in NFC North play, while the Lions and Dan Campbell try to start a winning streak.
Week 1 NFL betting for most is based on pre-season expectations that can be inaccurate and it’s why I mentioned to expect chaos in my Giants-Titans piece.
Week 2 is about us pulling out a BS meter to determine who under, or overperformed in Week 1 and presents a good value pick ATS. I correctly picked the Vikings to fall off in Week 2.
Around this week we can start to figure out who is who, but more importantly, there are more established data points. As the season goes on, noise gets beat down and we can more easily trust game data and advanced analytics. I’ll be relying on these stats as we move forward this season.
“It doesn’t matter if you have one ass-cheek and three toes, I will beat your ass.” — Dan Campbell
Minnesota Vikings
Who are the Minnesota Vikings? I’ll eschew the old Parcells quote, “you are what your record says you are” because I think that is wildly generalizing and doesn’t account for luck, so I’ll instead focus on the data.
As with most teams, they go as their quarterback goes. Cousins was terrible in this contest, gifting 3 interceptions and generally looking off-target. A lot of the Vikings’ woes stemmed from an inability to run the ball, which put them in disadvantaged second and third downs and distances. Despite their struggles against Philly, they are still the 6th best rushing offense by DVOA.
The defense struggled mightily in this one, allowing 486 yards of total offense, including 2 rushing TD’s to Hurts.
Football Outsiders has Minnesota ranked as the 32nd rush defense by DVOA. Against a Lions offense that has led the NFL in yards per carry this season at 7.2, the Vikings may be in for a long day.
Detroit Lions
Perhaps no one in the NFL has burst onto the scene this year quite like Lions OC, Ben Johnson. The Lions are averaging 35.5 points per game (T-2nd), have scored on 44% of offensive drives (7th) and are backed up the 8th best offense by DVOA. This is all without first round pick Jameson Williams!
Though the Lions have easily scored, the defense has given up just as much (32.5 ppg). Aidan Hutchinson recorded 3 sacks in the first half and will no doubt look to continue that against a Vikings line that has only given up three all year. The Lions have been vulnerable against the run however, allowing 0.091 EPA/play (28th).
The Lions have surrendered 580 passing yards thus far and will now contend with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborne. The pass rush hasn’t bailed them out although they sport the 11th best pressure rate in the NFL. Advanced stats from 2021 show us that when Cousins is under pressure, he is only 19th in ADOT and 26th in big-time throw percentage.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit’s last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
- Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- Minnesota is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota’s last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit
4* Free Week 3 NFL Betting Prediction: Lions +6
What the data says about these two teams is that they’re pretty similar. Maybe the Lions have been the more prolific offense, but both teams want to run the ball and also are weak defensively against the run.
These teams split their head-to-head matchups last season, each winning by just two points. I expected the total to be higher given Detroit’s offensive outputs, but in a game where both teams are running the ball, the clock dries up fast.
I like taking the points in this divisional matchup. Detroit can score, and even if they struggle, both games last season were close. I also like the pressure they can put on Cousins to get him to crumble. I allow myself a lot wider range of gameflows and outcomes by taking the 6.
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