Free Week 12 Prediction: Dolphins vs. Texans NFL Odds
Looking for Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans Free NFL Week 12 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Dolphins taking on the Texans on Sunday, November 27th, 2022 at Hard Rock Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 12 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Miami Houston Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 12
Miami Dolphins (7-3) vs. Houston Texans (1-8-1)
Date: Sunday, November 27th, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
NFL Week 12 ATS Betting Lines: Dolphins -12 (-110) | Texans +12 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 12 Moneyline Odds: Dolphins -600 | Texans +450
NFL Week 12 NFL Betting Total: O/U 46.0
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Miami currently sits behind only Kansas City in the AFC with a gimme game this week. Houston is considering a QB change amidst a seemingly lost year.
Miami comes off their bye week, rested and prepared to take on a far lesser opponent in Houston. Miami came into the season with plenty of questions that they’ve done well to answer. Moving forward they have a franchise QB, WR and seemingly the right head coach.
Houston was expected to be bad this year but I think some were optimistic they’d be better than the worst record in the league. Offensive futility is the main reason for their 1-8-1 record, but a QB change could be coming soon. Kyle Allen is the backup, so any hopes should be reigned in somewhat as the Texans are full steam ahead for the #1 pick.
Miami Dolphins
Miami to date has posted the 3rd most total yards per game and 6th in points per game. Miami has played a middling schedule in terms of strength of schedule (SOS) but Houston is by far their easiest opponent.
The Dolphins rank as the #1 passing offense by DVOA, telling us that it should continue. We don’t really need to build a case as to why Miami is better than Houston, but it can’t hurt either.
Though the Dolphins don’t stress the run, they’ve aptly addressed the position and got better since opening weekend. Raheem Mostert has been effective and Jeff Wilson looks like a great addition for pennies.
We know Miami can pour on the points but their defense has been susceptible at times. They’ve been solid against the run (8th in EPA) but have been gashed by the pass. DVOA ranks them as the 29th passing D, which is a concerning fact, even if they don’t have to face that fact this week.
Houston Texans
Houston has mostly relied on what they can get out of rookie RB Dameon Pierce this season. In large part, that’s due to Davis Mills’ lack of production or offensive weapons surrounding him.
That Miami does profile well against the run does not make things look better for the Texans. Coming into Week 11 Houston had been scoring at a paltry rate and then posted 10 points against Washington. Kyle Allen may not be a big upgrade, but he can’t be much worse either.
The only way Houston has really been competitive this season is by clamping down defensively which is going to be a Herculean ask this week. Tyreek Hill may set the NFL record for yards this week, so Houston is likely looking for moral victories.
Lovie Smith comes from the Tampa 2 tree, which is a modified cover 2 that takes away the intermediate to deep middle. However, that leaves the short middle open and Tyreek’s speed is a nuclear weapon in that range. Even if they somehow limit Hill, Waddle is ready and waiting for his share too.
Houston is also 31st in run defense by DVOA, so without being able to do one thing well, they’re going to be run ragged by the Phins.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Miami
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston’s last 12 games on the road
- Miami is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
- Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
4* Free Week 12 NFL Betting Prediction: Miami -12
I’ve never been more confident laying double digits in the NFL. The only way that the Dolphins don’t cover this number is if Tua falls apart and has three interceptions, which while that’s impossible to predict, is exceedingly unlikely to happen.
Don’t overthink this one. Lay the points.
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