Free Week 5 Prediction: Chargers vs. Saints NFL Odds
Looking for Los Angeles Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints free NFL Week 5 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chargers taking on the Saints on Sunday, October 11, 2020, at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Los Angeles New Orleans matchup.
NFL Handicapping: Week 5
(1-3) Los Angeles Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints (2-2)
Date: Monday, October 12
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
NFL Week 5 ATS Betting Lines: Saints -7.5
NFL Week 5 Moneyline Odds: Los Angeles +305/ New Orleans -340
NFL Week 5 NFL Betting Total: 51
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The Chargers have played well with the former Oregon Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert, but late-game mistakes have hurt them versus the Chiefs and Buccaneers. If we go by their ATS records, though, they are 3-1 this year, which is good enough for top 5 in the league.
The Saints have had a difficult start to the season, primarily due to injuries to key players like star wide receiver Michael Thomas. Many people have lost trust in the arm strength of Drew Brees, and while it looks bad at times, I am not ready to write off the skill of the Hall of Famer.
Both sides come into this primetime game very injured, so it will be essential to continue to check the injury report as we approach the Monday Night battle.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers were in command versus the Chiefs and the Buccaneers when Justin Herbert was at the helm. Coach Anthony Lynn is hinting at giving Tyrod Taylor his job back, but ultimately I believe the rookie will stay in unless he cannot clear up the very few rookie mistakes he makes a game.
There will likely be no Austin Ekeler, but the Chargers seem to always have solid running backs throughout the depth chart, and they do this year in Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson. They hope to get Mike Williams back this game to attack the saints secondary and give more options for Justin Herbert.
The defense statistically has been pretty solid this year, but they could use some improvement in their pass defense. The Chargers rushing defense ranks #1 in Rushing touchdowns allowed and top 15 in rushing yards allowed. They also rank 5th in opponents’ touchdowns per game with 2.2. The Chargers are letting up 263 passing yards per game and have had trouble getting to the quarterback and forcing turnovers.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints looked good against the Lions after getting down 14-0 early, but then again, it is the Lions. The chargers are a significant step up from that level, but the Saints should be able to handle them. Emmanuel Sanders and Tre’Quan Smith have developed into better options, so if the Saints get Michael Thomas and Jared Cook back, there are many options for the Saints.
Alvin Kamara is an absolute beast per usual, and he should be able to exploit the Chargers defense in his receiver role. The downfall of Drew Brees has been a bit blown out of proportion, although I do get that he has not looked very good at times. If he gets some more of his options back, it will make him better and open up the field for Alvin Kamara even more.
The Saints’ defense has been a problem for them this year. They have had multiple breakdowns and miscommunications in coverage, allowing the fifth-most touchdowns per game to opposing teams. They have allowed 30.1 PPG to offenses, which will not be sustainable if they want to make a playoff run.
The run defense has been solid over the past couple years, with an NFL 46 consecutive games holding a rusher to less than 100 yards rushing.
NFL Betting Trends:
- UNDER is 8-3 in LAC last 11 games in October.
- LA Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against New Orleans.
- LA Chargers are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference South division.
- Saints OVER is 6-2 in NO last 8 Mon. games.
- The OVER in 5 of New Orleans’ last 5 games against LA Chargers
- NO are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Mon. games.
- They are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 games in October.
4* Free NFL Betting Prediction: Chargers +7.5
This will probably be a game you will benefit from waiting later in the week to bet to see which players are practicing and not and to see the injury report because it could have a great deal of impact on the game.
That being said, if you want to score some value early in the week, this could be the lowest you will see the saints spread. Look for -7 if you think the saints will cover.
For me, I believe the Chargers will not miss Ekeler too much and should yet again cover. I think if they stick with Justin Herbert the chargers will be able to utilize his arm strength to find some explosive plays in this game.
I will probably wait later in the week and hope for the Saints to get some playmakers back, namely Thomas, and catch the Chargers somewhere close to 9.5 – 10. There are a lot of questions marks at the time of writing, but I still do not mind the spread at its current number.
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