Free NFL Week 17 Pick: Chargers vs. Patriots Odds
Looking for Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chargers taking on the Patriots on Saturday, December 28th at the Gillette Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 17 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Los Angeles New England matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 17
(9-6) Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots (3-12)
Date: Saturday, December 28th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Los Angeles -4 | New England +4
NFL Moneyline Odds: Los Angeles -214 | New England +180
NFL Betting Total: O/U 42.5
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When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Patriots have the leg up at 2-1. The Patriots also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 34 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
Los Angeles Chargers
After two straight losses, the Chargers bounced back in week 16 with a 34-27 win over the Broncos, improving their record to 9-6. This puts them 6th in the AFC and gives them a 93.5% chance of making the playoffs. They rank 16th in our power rankings heading into week 17.
Against the spread, the Chargers are 10-4-1, including a 9-2 record as favorites. Their average scoring margin this season is +3.6 points per game. Their O/U record is 6-9, with the over hitting in two straight games.
Los Angeles Chargers Stats
Justin Herbert posted a passer rating of 110 in week 16, completing 23 of 31 passes for 284 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. The Chargers’ offense came alive in the 4th quarter, scoring 15 points against the Broncos. Herbert’s top target was Ladd McConkey, who had 6 catches for 87 yards, while Gus Edwards led the ground game with 68 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries.
Heading into week 17, the Chargers rank 13th in our offensive power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 21.9, and 24th in passing yards per game with 200.8. However, they have been efficient in the red zone, converting 37.5% of their opportunities, which ranks 8th in the league.
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The Chargers’ defense gave up 110 rushing yards on 21 attempts to the Broncos in their 34-27 win, allowing an average of 5.2 yards per attempt. They also allowed 245 passing yards on 29 completions, with two passing touchdowns. The Chargers recorded two sacks and limited Denver to a 38.5% conversion rate on third downs.
Despite giving up 355 total yards, the Chargers were able to come out on top in their most recent game. The defense struggled to stop the run, but they did win the tackles for loss differential and held the Broncos to a 72.5% completion percentage on their passes.
New England Patriots
With a 3-12 record, the Patriots have dropped five straight games, including a 24-21 loss to the Bills in week 16. New England was a 14-point underdog in that game, but they managed to cover the spread, bringing their ATS record to 6-8-1. The Patriots have been underdogs in all of their games this season and have an average scoring margin of -6.8 points per game.
Heading into week 17, the Patriots rank 27th in our NFL power rankings and have a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs. They are 4th in the AFC East with a 1-4 division record and are 2-8 in conference play. New England is 1-5 at home and 2-7 on the road this season.
New England Patriots Stats
Heading into week 17, the Patriots rank 28th in our offensive power rankings. They are 29th in the NFL in both points per game (17.3) and total yards per game (298.2). Despite being 16th in passing attempts, they are last in the league in passing yards, averaging 178.5 per game. On the ground, New England ranks 14th in rushing yards per game, with 119.7, on 26.4 attempts per contest.
Rookie QB Drake Maye threw for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 16, completing 22 of 36 passes against the Bills. He has thrown for over 200 yards in each of his last three games. Kayshon Boutte led the team in receiving with 5 catches for 95 yards, while Rhamondre Stevenson had 60 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. The Patriots converted 7 of 12 third downs and scored on 2 of 3 red zone trips in the loss to Buffalo.
New England’s defense gave up 172 rushing yards to the Bills in their most recent game, despite holding Buffalo to just 152 passing yards. The Patriots lost 24-21, with Buffalo averaging 6.1 yards per attempt on the ground. The Patriots defended the pass well, allowing just 16 completions on 28 attempts (55.2% completion percentage) and forcing one interception.
On third downs, the Patriots allowed the Bills to convert 36.4% of their chances. Although they did come up with one interception, they only managed one sack and had a -2 differential in quarterback hits.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chargers are 4-1 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Patriots are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Chargers are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Patriots have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chargers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-3.
- The Patriots’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Chargers vs. Patriots Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -135 | -215 | -2.5 | -4 |
| Patriots | +114 | +180 | +2.5 | +4 |
4* Free Week 17 NFL Betting Prediction: Los Angeles -4
Our point spread pick for this week 17 matchup between the Chargers and Patriots is to take the Chargers to cover as 4-point road favorites. We have the Chargers winning by a score of 26-20, making them a strong pick vs. the spread.
For the over/under, with the line sitting at just 42.5 points, we like the over, projecting a combined score of 46 points. This makes the over a good bet to take advantage of the current line.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Developing a plan for Justin Herbert & the Chargers offense.@ezlazar previews the Week 17 matchup: https://t.co/PhPTP3Vqto pic.twitter.com/KbZqKnmof3
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 26, 2024
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