Free NFL Week 13 Pick: Raiders vs. Chiefs Odds
Looking for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Raiders taking on the Chiefs on Friday, November 29th at the Arrowhead Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 13 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Las Vegas Kansas City Black Friday matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 13
(2-9) Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
Date: Friday, November 29th, Black Friday
Time: 3:00 ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Las Vegas +13 | Kansas City -13
NFL Moneyline Odds: Las Vegas +532 | Kansas City -760
NFL Betting Total: O/U 42.5
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Get ready for a Black Friday barnburner as the Raiders and Chiefs clash in one of the NFL’s most storied rivalries! Meeting for the 132nd time, these two franchises have shared decades of drama, with Kansas City holding a commanding series lead at 74-55-2.
The history is rich, dating back to their first showdown in 1960 when the then-Dallas Texans toppled the Raiders 34-16.
Fast forward to 2024, and the Chiefs are flying high at 10-1, while the Raiders are limping into Week 13 at 2-9. Their last matchup in October ended in a 27-20 Chiefs victory, and the stakes are even higher now under the bright lights of Arrowhead Stadium.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Chiefs have the leg up at 2-1.
However, against the spread the Raiders went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 43 points per game.
From a betting standpoint, Kansas City’s dominance is hard to overlook. The Chiefs have been nearly unbeatable, boasting a staggering 16-1 SU record in their last 17 games, including 9-2 at home against the Raiders.
Las Vegas Raiders
With a 2-9 record, the Raiders are on a seven-game losing streak, including a 29-19 home loss to the Broncos in week 12. This puts Las Vegas at the bottom of the AFC West and 16th in the conference. Our power rankings have them 27th, and they have a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs.
Against the spread, the Raiders are 4-7 and have failed to cover in three straight games. They were 5.5-point underdogs against the Broncos in week 12. Their O/U record is 8-3, with the over hitting in four consecutive games.
Las Vegas Raiders Stats
Heading into week 13, the Raiders rank 32nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 24th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 18.7, and 28th in yards per game with 292.6. Despite ranking 2nd in passing attempts per game (37.7), they are only 16th in passing yards, averaging 218 per game. On the ground, they rank 31st in rushing attempts and are last in the league in rushing yards, with 74.6 per game. Las Vegas ranks 24th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 35.4% success rate, but they have been efficient in the red zone, ranking 5th in the NFL with a 43.3% conversion rate.
In week 12, Gardner Minshew threw for 230 yards, completing 25 of 42 passes, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Jakobi Meyers had 10 receptions for 121 yards, leading the team in receiving, while Sincere McCormick rushed for 33 yards on 5 carries. The Raiders scored 19 points in their loss to the Broncos, with 13 of those points coming in the 2nd quarter.
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In the Raiders’ 29-19 loss to the Broncos, their defense allowed 262 passing yards on 25 completions. The Raiders struggled to pressure the quarterback, finishing with just one sack and losing the QB hit battle by a margin of -8. Despite this, they did well against the run, allowing only 63 yards on 22 attempts.
Opposing quarterbacks completed 59.5% of their passes against the Raiders in their latest game. Additionally, the Raiders’ defense allowed two passing touchdowns and permitted the Broncos to convert on 40% of their third down attempts.
Kansas City Chiefs
With a 10-1 record, the Chiefs sit atop the AFC standings and have a 96.4% chance of winning the AFC West. They bounced back from their week 11 loss to the Bills with a 30-27 win over the Panthers in week 12, though they couldn’t cover the 11-point spread. Before that, they had three straight narrow wins, including a 2-point victory over the Broncos in week 10 and a 6-point win over the Bucs in week 9.
Kansas City has a +4.7 scoring margin this season and is 4-6-1 against the spread. They rank 6th in our power rankings and have a 100% chance of making the playoffs. Their O/U record is 6-5, with the over hitting in their last two games.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Patrick Mahomes posted a passer rating of 120 in week 12, throwing for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception. He completed 27 of 37 passes, though he was sacked 5 times. Kareem Hunt led the rushing attack with 68 yards on 16 carries, while Noah Gray had 4 catches for 66 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Heading into week 13, the Chiefs rank 10th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 24.5 points per game. They lead the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 52.7% success rate, but rank 24th in red zone conversion percentage.
In their 30-27 win over the Panthers, the Chiefs’ defense gave up 334 yards and allowed two sacks. Carolina managed just 85 yards rushing on 21 attempts. Kansas City defended the pass relatively well, holding the Panthers to 60% completions and giving up 249 yards through the air. The Chiefs also held Carolina to a 38.5% conversion rate on third down and allowed just one passing touchdown.
Kansas City did struggle to generate tackles for loss in this game, with a -6 differential compared to the Panthers. Despite this, they were able to limit Carolina’s ground game and come up with key stops when needed, particularly on third down.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Raiders are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Raiders are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Chiefs have gone 5-3-2 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Raiders’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Chiefs’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | +270 | +532 | +7 | +13 |
| Chiefs | -340 | -760 | -7 | -13 |
4* Free Week 13 NFL Betting Prediction: Kansas City -13
Las Vegas has struggled both on the road and against Kansas City, with a dismal 1-7 SU record in their last eight meetings with the Chiefs and a 1-6 SU stretch away from home.
The spread sits at a hefty -13 for Kansas City, reflecting their firepower on both sides of the ball, while the Raiders’ 2-5 ATS record in their last seven games suggests they’ve struggled to cover as underdogs.
Our pick against the spread in this week 13 matchup between the Raiders and Chiefs is to take the Chiefs to cover as 13-point favorites at home. Our projected final score is 28-12 in favor of the Chiefs.
With an O/U set at 42.5, this game offers intrigue beyond the win-loss column.
For the over/under, with the line sitting at 42.5 points, we have this game finishing with 40 combined points, making the UNDER our recommended pick.
Can the Chiefs continue their march toward postseason dominance, or will the Raiders find a spark to disrupt their bitter rivals? Either way, this game is dripping with history, passion, and plenty of betting action for fans to dig into this holiday weekend.
Buckle up—Arrowhead is about to rock!
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Gobble up, Chiefs Kingdom! Happy Thanksgiving, and we’ll see you tomorrow 🦃 pic.twitter.com/S874bTpqh8
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 28, 2024
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