Free Week 10 Prediction: Raiders vs. Colts NFL Odds
Looking for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Free NFL Week 10 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Raiders taking on the Colts on Sunday, November 13th, 2022 at Allegiant Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 10 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Las Vegas – Indianapolis Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 10
Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-5-1)
Date: Sunday, November 13th, 2022
Time: 4:05 PM EST
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
NFL Week 10 ATS Betting Lines: Raiders -6 (-110) | Colts +6 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 10 Moneyline Odds: Raiders -274 | Colts +214
NFL Week 10 NFL Betting Total: O/U 42.5
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The Raiders are falling apart at the seams with discord between coaches and staff, while the Colts are axing just about everyone like its the French Revolution.
Josh McDaniels needed to come out this year and quiet the doubters. His time in Denver is still a dark cloud over his head as a head coach, and he’s not done much to assuage those concerns this year. Derek Carr recently expressed doubt in a vague, but very intentional way post-loss on Sunday. Winning cures all as they say and taking care of business this Sunday would be a good way to silence those increasingly loud whispers.
Indy is in a, “what the hell will they do next?” space. After making changes at QB, changing coordinators and finally firing Frank Reich, they hired…Jeff Saturday? I’m sure he’s a great guy, is still sharp on his X’s and O’s, but if we hire every ring of honor member the coaching ranks would get poor quickly. They too need a win, and probably an exorcism while they’re at it.
Both teams are trying to avoid their version of The Biggest Loser.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders certainly had higher hopes after trading for Davante Adams, but to their credit, they’ve played better than their record. Their Pythagorean expectation has them at 3.6 wins, much better than their 2 wins.
Josh Jacobs has been a revelation at running back, posting top numbers among all ball carriers and leading Las Vegas to the 9th best rushing O by DVOA. Indy, like Jacksonville, has done well defending the run this year so Jacobs may have a tough day on the ground.
Even with the Adams addition, the passing offense has struggled at times but they still rank 12th in EPA/dropback, yet again suggesting that they’re better than the record indicates.
Las Vegas had been one of the tougher run defenses in EPA/rush but took a bit of a ding the last few weeks against the Saints and Jags. They still rank fine in that EPA category, but DVOA says the defense as a whole is the worst in the NFL. They get a softer matchup this week with the Colts.
Indianapolis Colts
So back to this mess, eh? The show of futility in Foxborough was ultimately the undoing of Reich but no matter who you install at HC or even the coordinators, the personnel just falls short.
Missing Jonathan Taylor is always a tough loss, but even the wide receiver position has a dearth of talent. In terms of EPA, no team is worse running the ball other than Tampa, and no team is worse passing other than Houston and Carolina. To quote Dumbledore, “dark and difficult times lie ahead”.
The defense doesn’t look bad though. Indy is 5th in rush defense by DVOA, a key marker against the Raiders. The passing defense has lacked somewhat (17th) but the Raiders haven’t been prolific enough that its a shoe-in loss.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Indianapolis’s last 14 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas’s last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
- Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
4* Free Week 10 NFL Betting Prediction: Raiders 1H spread, or -6
I’ll take a gamble that Saturday coming in as interim isn’t going to fire up the team. In fact, it’s such a WTF move, I think it backfires.
The Raiders have been in each game but they’ve just struggled in the second half. They’re due to breakthrough and see their record creep closer to their expectation.
I would take the Raiders 1H spread. You can mitigate risk against their second half woes, and generally I think the Colts are finished.
I don’t have a 1H spread at the time of this writing, so my backup plan would be to take the -6.
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