Free NFL Week 4 Pick: Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds
Looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chiefs taking on the Chargers on Sunday, September 29th at the SoFi Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 4 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Kansas City Los Angeles matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 4
(3-0) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)
Date: Sunday, September 29th
Time: 4:25 ET
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood CA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Kansas City -8 | Los Angeles +8
NFL Moneyline Odds: Kansas City -410 | Los Angeles +320
NFL Betting Total: O/U 39
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Get ready for an electrifying Week 4 matchup as the Chiefs take on the Chargers in a classic AFC West showdown! The Chiefs come in red-hot at 3-0, while the Chargers sit at 2-1, desperately needing to close the gap in the division. These two have clashed 128 times, and while Kansas City holds the upper hand historically (69 wins to 58), this rivalry never disappoints!
Now, let’s talk betting! The Chargers have struggled as underdogs, going 1-4 ATS in their last five in that role, while the Chiefs are solid on the road, boasting a 6-3-1 ATS record in their last ten away games.
The Chiefs won both of their matchups against the Chargers last season, with their first win coming by a score of 31-17 and their second win by a score of 13-12. In the first game, the Chiefs were -6 point favorites, and in the second game, the Chargers were -3.5 point favorites.
The over/under line for the first game was 48.5 points, and the teams combined for 48 points. The line for the second game was 35 points, and the teams combined for 25 points.
Kansas City Chiefs
Despite falling behind early, the Chiefs came back to beat the Falcons 22-17, improving to 3-0 for the season. Kansas City trailed 7-0 after an early Falcons touchdown but responded with a Patrick Mahomes touchdown pass to Rashee Rice in the 2nd quarter. After Atlanta took a 14-7 lead, the Chiefs added a field goal and another touchdown just before halftime to take a 16-14 lead, with Mahomes finding Rice in the end zone again.
In the 4th quarter, Mahomes connected with JuJu Smith-Schuster for another near-touchdown, and the Chiefs’ defense held the Falcons to just a field goal in the final period. The Chiefs were -3 point favorites heading into the game, and the combined 39 points was below the over/under line of 46.5 points.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Patrick Mahomes went 26/39 for 217 yards and two touchdowns in the Chiefs’ 22-17 win over the Falcons. Despite a good performance from Mahomes, the offense struggled to get the ball downfield, as they finished with just 217 yards passing. Mahomes’ top target was Rashee Rice, who caught 12 passes for 110 yards and one touchdown.
The running game saw Carson Steele lead the team with 72 yards on 17 carries. The Chiefs finished with 128 yards on the ground. Overall, the Chiefs had 22 first downs and 311 total yards. They also turned the ball over once, with Mahomes throwing one interception.
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In their 22-17 win over the Falcons, the Chiefs’ defense allowed just 82 yards on 25 rushing attempts. They held Atlanta to 0 completions and 229 yards passing, with a tough 3.3 yards per attempt figure. Despite this, they did allow one passing touchdown. The Chiefs’ defense was tough on third downs, allowing just a 22.2% conversion rate, and they also came up with one interception.
Additionally, Kansas City’s defense recorded two sacks and had more quarterback hits and tackles for loss than the Falcons. This helped them limit Atlanta to 311 total yards in the game.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers dropped to 2-1 with a 20-10 loss to the Steelers, failing to cover the spread as +2.5 point underdogs. Los Angeles got off to a good start, leading 10-7 at halftime after Justin Herbert’s touchdown pass to Quentin Johnston in the first quarter and a late field goal from Cameron Dicker in the 2nd. However, the Chargers didn’t score at all in the 2nd half.
The Chargers’ 10-7 lead quickly evaporated in the 3rd quarter, as the Steelers scored 13 unanswered points. Justin Fields connected with Scotty Miller for a touchdown early in the 3rd, and the Chargers’ defense couldn’t get off the field, as the Steelers added another touchdown with 7:12 left in the 4th. Los Angeles’ offense struggled to sustain drives in the 2nd half, and the Chargers were forced to punt multiple times in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
Los Angeles Chargers Stats
In their 20-10 loss to the Steelers, the Chargers’ offense struggled, managing just 10 first downs and 107 yards passing. Justin Herbert went 12/18 for 125 yards and one touchdown, but he was sacked five times and finished with a passer rating of 105. J.K. Dobbins led the team with 44 rushing yards, and the Chargers finished with only 61 yards on the ground.
Los Angeles’ offense failed to convert on third down, going just 27.3% on their attempts. Herbert’s lone touchdown pass was caught by Quentin Johnston, who had 44 yards receiving. The Chargers didn’t have much success in the running game, as Dobbins averaged only 2.9 yards per attempt.
In the Chargers’ 20-10 loss to the Steelers, the Chargers’ defense gave up 232 yards through the air. They defended the run well, allowing just 114 yards on 31 attempts and forcing Pittsburgh to rely heavily on the passing game. The Chargers didn’t allow a single completion in the game.
Despite their efforts, the Chargers’ defense still gave up one passing touchdown and allowed the Steelers to convert on 50% of their third down attempts. They did come up with two sacks and one interception.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 4-1 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Chiefs are 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Chargers have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chiefs’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Chargers’ have an over/under record of 0-3 in their last 3 games at home.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -155 | -410 | -3 | -8 |
| Chargers | +130 | +320 | +3 | +8 |
4* Free Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction: Kansas City -8
Kansas City is an 8-point favorite heading into this one, and with Mahomes at the helm and Andy Reid calling the shots, it’s hard to see LA pulling off the upset. Sure, Justin Herbert is a rising star, but the Chiefs always seem to find a way—whether it’s flashy or gritty.
Our projections have the Chargers falling to the Chiefs by a score of 33-17 in this week four matchup. With the Chargers sitting as 8-point underdogs at home, we are NOT leaning towards taking them to cover the spread.
Kansas City’s offense will likely wear down the Chargers late, and if you’re thinking of sprinkling some cash on this game, laying the points with KC looks like the smart move. The moneyline odds favor Kansas City at -410, while the total sits at 39.
Expect Mahomes and company to continue their winning ways and cover that spread.
For the over/under, we like the over, with a projected combined score of 50 points and the line sitting at just 39 points heading into this one.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
“full confidence in all these guys” 💯 pic.twitter.com/b8OXOZzSMb
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) September 26, 2024
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