Free NFL Week 11 Pick: Jaguars vs. Lions Odds
Looking for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Jaguars taking on the Lions on Sunday, November 17th at the Ford Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 11 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Jacksonville Detroit matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
(2-8) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions (8-1)
Date: Sunday, November 17th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Ford Field, Detroit MI
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Jacksonville +13 | Detroit -13
NFL Moneyline Odds: Jacksonville +522 | Detroit -794
NFL Betting Total: O/U 47.5
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Over their last 5 matchups the Lions hold a 3-2 advantage.
This series has been played 8 times, with the Lions winning 5, and the Jaguars winning 3.
Last season, the Jaguars and Lions did not face off head-to-head.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Lions have the leg up at 3-0. The Lions also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 49 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville heads into week 11 on a three-game losing streak, including a 12-7 home loss to the Vikings in week 10. The Jaguars were 7-point underdogs in that game, bringing their ATS record to 6-4 this season. They have covered the spread in four straight games, including week 9’s 28-23 loss to the Eagles and week 8’s 30-27 loss to the Packers.
With a 2-8 record, Jacksonville ranks 29th in our power rankings and has a 1.5% chance of making the playoffs. They are 0-5 on the road and 2-3 at home, with both of their wins coming against the Patriots and Colts. In division play, the Jaguars are 1-1.
Jacksonville Jaguars Stats
Jacksonville’s offense has struggled in recent weeks, as they head into week 11. After scoring 16 points in the 3rd quarter of week 9 against the Eagles, they managed only 7 points in week 10, all coming in the 1st quarter. Mac Jones threw for 111 yards and 2 interceptions, while Evan Engram led the team with 40 receiving yards. Travis Etienne Jr. had 44 rushing yards on 11 carries.
Currently, the Jaguars rank 21st in our offensive power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 20.2, and 25th in passing yards, with 195.2 per game. On 3rd downs, they rank 27th, converting only 33% of their attempts.
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Despite their defense forcing three interceptions and holding the Vikings to 12 points, the Jaguars still lost 12-7 in their most recent game. The Jaguars’ defense struggled to stop the run, allowing 169 rushing yards on 43 attempts. However, they did well against the pass, allowing just 233 yards through the air and not giving up any passing touchdowns.
Jacksonville’s defense managed one sack in the game and held Minnesota to a 35.7% conversion rate on third down. The Jaguars’ offense struggled, which put more pressure on the defense, as they allowed 402 total yards.
Detroit Lions
With seven straight wins, the Lions sit atop our NFL power rankings and have a 99.4% chance of making the playoffs. They are 8-1 this season and lead the NFC North, including a 2-0 record in division games. Detroit is 5-0 on the road and 3-1 at home.
Against the spread, the Lions are 7-2, with an average scoring margin of +12.6 points per game. Their O/U record is 4-4-1, with their games averaging 50.6 points. The O/U line has averaged 50 points in their games.
Detroit Lions Stats
Heading into week 11, the Lions rank 4th in our offensive power rankings and are 2nd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 31.6. They are 7th in passing yards per game (219.6) despite ranking 27th in passing attempts. On the ground, Detroit ranks 5th in rushing attempts and 7th in rushing yards per game, averaging 147.3. They are 6th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage and rank 4th in red zone attempts, but they are 27th in red zone conversion percentage.
Jared Goff threw for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 10 but also had 5 interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 59. Jahmyr Gibbs led the team with 71 rushing yards on 19 carries, while Sam LaPorta had 3 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. Detroit scored 13 points in the 4th quarter against the Texans, converting 7 of 12 3rd-down attempts and going 2/3 in the red zone.
In their 26-23 win over the Texans, the Lions’ defense allowed just 56 rushing yards on 28 attempts, giving up only 2.0 yards per attempt on the ground. They also limited Houston to 192 passing yards and forced two interceptions. Detroit’s defense recorded four sacks and held the Texans to a 40% conversion rate on third down.
The Lions defended the pass well, allowing just one passing touchdown and holding Houston to a 57.6% completion rate. Detroit also had two interceptions in the game.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Jaguars are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Jaguars are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Lions have gone 8-2 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Jaguars’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Lions’ have an over/under record of 1-1-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Jaguars vs. Lions Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | +160 | +522 | +4 | +13 |
| Lions | -192 | -794 | -4 | -13 |
4* Free Week 11 NFL Betting Prediction: Detroit -13
Our model has the Lions coming out on top by a score of 30-16 in their week 11 matchup against the Jaguars. With this projection, we are looking to take the Lions to cover the spread as 13-point favorites at home.
For this game, we also like the under, with a projected combined score of 46 points, just hitting the over/under line of 47.5 points.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Lomas Brown & T.J. Lang know standout o-line play when they see it 🎙 pic.twitter.com/3xnr4W1uZ0
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 15, 2024
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