Free Week 8 Prediction: Jaguars vs. Broncos NFL Odds
Looking for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos Free NFL Week 8 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Jaguars taking on the Broncos on Sunday, October 30th, 2022 at Wembley Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 8 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Jacksonville – Denver Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 8
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) vs. Denver Broncos (2-5)
Date: Sunday, October 30th, 2022
Time: 9:30 AM EST
Venue: Wembley Stadium, London, UK
NFL Week 8 ATS Betting Lines: Jaguars -3 (-110) | Broncos +3 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 8 Moneyline Odds: Jaguars -161 | Broncos +131
NFL Week 8 NFL Betting Total: O/U 39.5
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The NFL continues their international outreach with another London game between Denver and the pseudo home team Jaguars.
The London games come with a mixed discourse in the sports world. On one hand, it’s pretty sweet waking up and having football at 9:30 am on the east coast (6:30 for our west coast compatriots), but those against the series across the pond will point to losing teams and low quality football, which is a valid claim.
Shad Khan and the Jaguars have been willing participants in this series over the past 5 years and have even been rumored to be the leading candidate to move the team to London in an all-out attempt to tap into a giant sports market. The Brits famously don’t care for the sport though, citing a 2018 survey by the government which showed only 18% of the 1600+ participants labeled the sport ‘exciting’.
So while the games aren’t well received by the locals and only mildly by most Americans, the NFL continues their crusade to give the game of football to our European brethren.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville has had less than stellar results after starting the season hot, but Pythagorean win percentage says they’re better than their record indicates. At just 2-5, expectation has them more like a 4 win team, so there’s probably some positive regression coming.
Trevor Lawrence nearly led a game-winning drive against the Giants on Sunday with Christian Kirk falling one yard short of the goal line that would have tied the game and set them up for a clinching PAT. Ultimately what doomed Jacksonville was scoring 3 points on 3 drives inside the Giants redzone.
Lawrence threw for 310 yards, didn’t turn the ball over and had a touchdown on a goal line sneak. The Giants didn’t record many sacks, but they generated enough pressure to force Lawrence into incompletions, evidenced by his 22-43 completion line. The Broncos defense will not be a break for the offensive line either.
Travis Etienne looked incredibly quick both in running and processing and really shined outside of his fumble in the redzone. In fact, he looked good enough the Jaguars traded James Robinson to the Jets on Monday. Christian Kirk led all pass catchers with 7 catches for 96 yards.
The three-headed attack of Lawrence, Etienne and Kirk rank 11th in total offense by DVOA. Remember, DVOA is opponent-adjusted so their offensive results this season haven’t been lucky, so to speak. They’ll need to bring their best in London, as the Broncos sport the #3 defense by DVOA.
Speaking of defense, Jacksonville ranks a pedestrian 17th, even after allocating a pile of resources to upgrading the unit. They do rank 4th in defensive adjusted line yards, something that the Broncos will have to figure out if they want to run the ball. They will welcome Russ this week after they were abused by Daniel Jones’ running ability.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos offense continues to be the most anemic unit in the league. They’ve averaged 11.3 ppg in their last three games. 11.3!
Okay, so I’m cheating a little bit here only because Brett Rypien started in lieu of Russell Wilson, but Russ owns two of the three games cited. Losing Javonte Williams and Garrett Bolles is significant, but these issues existed before their IR designations.
Melvin Gordon paced all ball carriers with 11 touches after being relegated to the third running back in their MNF matchup with the Chargers. They’re a bottom six unit in rushing offense but draw just an average rushing defense in a Jacksonville unit that allowed 100+ rushing yards to both Jones and Barkley.
We’ll obviously be interested to know what Wilson’s status is for this week; Brett Rypien would be an auto-fade, but Russ isn’t much better right now. Even with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Greg Dulcich, the Broncos pass offense ranks a poor 26th by DVOA.
The biggest knock on Russ right now is that he’s either stopped or is unable to throw to the middle of the field. When the defense can play a soft middle, they can contain the boundaries, which means short yardage gains and zero explosiveness allowed.
I’ve mentioned it many times this year but the Broncos offense has been so bad, the defense gets overshadowed completely and make no mistake, their defense is among the best in the league. They are the best passing defense in the league by EPA/dropback allowed and also generate the fourth-most pressure. For a Jacksonville squad that allowed a lot of pressures against the Giants, this is not ideal.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver’s last 7 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville’s last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Jacksonville’s last 9 games at home
4* Free Week 8 NFL Betting Prediction: u39.5
Denver is an under bettor’s dream. They’re the perfect combination of elite defense and powerless offense that makes 39.5 even look like too much. In their last three contests, the game totals have averaged 27 points!
The trip over to London is an abnormal and brutal trip, which usually lends itself to the under. The notoriety of this effect is so well known that the term, “Lunder” exists. We’ve also got betting trends screaming bet the under and I’m not going to let it fall on deaf ears.
The only way I can see the over hitting is a defensive touchdown because these offenses are not going to put up much. If they prove me wrong, so be it but the under is a beautiful sight here.
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