Free Week 12 Prediction: Colts vs. Steelers NFL Odds
Looking for Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Free NFL Week 12 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Colts taking on the Steelers on Monday, November 28th, 2022 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 12 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Indianapolis Pittsburgh Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 12
Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7)
Date: Monday, November 28th, 2022
Time: 8:15 PM EST
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
NFL Week 12 ATS Betting Lines: Colts -3 (-110) | Steelers +3 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 12 Moneyline Odds: Colts -163 | Steelers +133
NFL Week 12 NFL Betting Total: O/U 38.5
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Although they suffered a loss, Indy continues to impress with Saturday at the helm, pushing the Eagles nearly to the brink. Pittsburgh is looking for positives in a challenging year.
I was among the loudest voices of those I know in saying the Saturday experiment would be an utter disaster, so of course they’ve looked dangerous. Sure, they matched up well with Philly, but actually coming out and nearly beating them is another thing entirely. When does the interim bubble pop? We see the bump frequently, but sustaining that surge is usually a tall task.
Pittsburgh gave division rival Cincinnati a run on Sunday but fell short at home. Rookie Kenny Pickett is still looking for a signature game but has had quite the difficult run in their schedule. The horizon doesn’t offer much reprieve, either.
Indianapolis Colts
Indy’s blueprint moving forward will be an old-school approach. That is, they’ll go run heavy and play stingy defense, mainly due to their constraints at the QB position. That’s not necessarily the worst thing! Coaches can extoll passing offenses as the ideal way to play, but ultimately you’ve got to play the hand you’re dealt.
Game flow eventually called for more passing but the run game tried their best. Taylor carried 22 times for 84 yards and a score on Sunday. In terms of EPA, the Colts are actually 31st in rushing, something to remember as they face harder defenses.
Parris Campbell has come on as of late, offering a second option to lead wideout Michael Pittman. Indy is still 31st in passing, so this is an incredibly punchless offense. Though, Pittsburgh hasn’t proven to be a juggernaut themselves.
It all comes back to the defense for the Colts though. DVOA likes them as the 10th best unit and they rank 4th in EPA/rush allowed. It will be a tough day for Najee Harris, and one in which Pickett will likely be asked to provide the lions share of offensive efficiency.
Pittsburgh Steelers
I’ve normally been a big advocate, along with the sharp community, in backing Tomlin as an underdog. Traditionally it’s been the best money you can spend, although the trend has reversed this year as the Steelers have gotten worse. Coaching only takes you so far.
DVOA says the Steelers are below average offensively and that corroborates the eye test. They’re averaging just 17.0 ppg this season and have been held to 14 points or less 4 times. Given Indy’s style and capabilities, we may see the fifth time this week.
Najee Harris will face an uphill battle against a talented rushing defense and one in which DVOA likes quite a bit, telling us the success is likely to continue. Indy doesn’t score a lot, so it’s not entirely guaranteed Pickett will have to throw 40 times, but we could see a lot of 3rd and longs.
While Pickett has ranked well in terms of completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), he still sorely lacks in the EPA department, ranking as the NFL’s 30th best QB. The Colts rank 11th in EPA/dropback allowed, yet another sign that Pickett and the offense could struggle.
The Steelers rank 7th in rush D by DVOA, so they could make life difficult for the Colts. Taylor faced a difficult defense last week and still produced, so it’s possible that he’s somewhat matchup proof. Pittsburgh ranks 30th in pressure rate, though they have missed TJ Watt for most of the year and he has since returned.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
- The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Indianapolis’s last 16 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis’s last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
4* Free Week 12 NFL Betting Prediction: u38.5
Pittsburgh does not stack up well in this matchup and have not enjoyed much success this year. They’re an uninspiring 2-3 ATS failing to cover by an average of 5.6 points.
Indy profiles better in this game but I wonder when the interim bump dissipates. The Colts are hitting the under at an 82% clip this season and the Steelers sit at 60% to the under. Primetime still produces a fair number of unders as well, so even with the current number I think we follow the trends.
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