Free Week 11 Prediction: Texans vs. Commanders NFL Odds
Looking for Houston Texans vs. Washington Commanders Free NFL Week 11 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Texans taking on the Commanders on Sunday, November 20th, 2022 at NRG Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 11 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Houston Washington Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
Houston Texans (1-7-1) vs. Washington Commanders (5-5)
Date: Sunday, November 20th, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
NFL Week 11 ATS Betting Lines: Texans +2.5 (-110) | Commanders -2.5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 11 Moneyline Odds: Texans N/A | Commanders N/A
NFL Week 11 NFL Betting Total: O/U 40.5
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Houston continues to tank for their future franchise signal caller while the Commanders are coming off of their biggest win of the season.
Houston’s 2022 outlook was always bleak, but worst record in the league is still a stinging blow. You can swallow a bad record depending on the product on the field, but the Texans have played many games where they never had a shot.
They’ll most certainly draft a new QB at season’s end, but getting through the next 8 games will still be tough to bear.
Washington, once considered toast by this writer, has revived their season and clawed all the way back to .500, with a backup QB no less. Winning over the previously unbeaten Eagles was a complete win and forces us to look at the Commies a little differently.
Houston Texans
Score be damned, Houston was never really in the game against the Giants. Davis Mills threw for 319 yards and a score but also forced a throw late and resulted in a costly interception. He ranks just 32nd in adjusted EPA/play.
Brandin Cooks returned to the lineup but didn’t fill the stat sheet even with lackluster options around him. Dameon Pierce remains the most dynamic offensive piece and was productive with 122 scrimmage yards. Both DVOA and EPA place the Texans as one of the three worst units in the league.
Houston’s one win came in a game where they held their opponent to 9 points. That’s going to remain true for an offense averaging only 16.6 ppg. The defense just simply isn’t good enough to shoulder that much responsibility.
The Texans are just average in pressure rate, rank 28th in total defense by DVOA and have been abused by the passing game. Though, Washington is just 27th in passing offense by DVOA.
Washington Commanders
Washington was always going to ride their backfield once Heinicke stepped in. While he’s been serviceable, it’s a rare day in the NFL when he outright wins you the game. However, he has a much softer matchup in Houston this week.
Provided they can play turnover free football, it’s not unreasonable to think they can go on the road and secure their 6th win. Since replacing Wentz, the Commanders are 3-1 while averaging almost 23 ppg. Terry McLaurin has seen an uptick in production and getting your #1 wideout involved is never a bad development.
Houston just surrendered a big day to Saquon Barkley, so it stands to reason the duo of Robinson and Gibson can also take advantage. Houston ranks just 31st in run D by DVOA.
Chase Young is due to return this week, which will boost both their rush and pass efforts. As they stand now, the Commanders are the 2nd best rushing D by DVOA, which will put pressure on Mills by taking away Pierce. Washington is also 6th in pressure rate, something the interior o-line of Houston will struggle with.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Washington is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
- Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston’s last 7 games at home
- Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
4* Free Week 11 NFL Betting Prediction: u40.5
It could be a long day for Mills in this one. Washington represents a very underrated defense and now they draw a poor Texans offensive unit.
Due to Washington’s run-heavy attack and the Texans complete futility, the total here is incredibly low. But, I look to a game like Washington’s matchup with Indy. Two run dominant teams with one team having a favorable rush defense profile should lead to slog fest.
Give me the under in a game where I don’t expect double digit scoring from Houston.
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