Free NFL Week 6 Pick: Texans vs. Patriots Odds
Looking for Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Texans taking on the Patriots on Sunday, October 13th at the Gillette Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 6 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Houston New England matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 6
(4-1) Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots (1-4)
Date: Sunday, October 13th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Houston -7 | New England +7
NFL Moneyline Odds: Houston -314 | New England +254
NFL Betting Total: O/U 37.5
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The Texans and Patriots did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Texans have a record of 2-1. The Texans also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 47 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
Houston Texans
After bouncing back from a week 3 loss to the Vikings with two straight wins, the Texans now sit at 4-1, putting them first in the AFC South. Houston has a 2-0 record in the division and is 3-0 in conference play. Our projections give them a 79.3% chance of winning the division and an 89.1% chance of making the playoffs. In our power rankings, the Texans are 11th heading into week 6.
Against the spread, the Texans are 1-4 despite being favored in all of their games so far. Their average scoring margin is -2.4 points per game. In week 5, they covered the spread in their 23-20 win over the Bills, but the combined 43 points fell short of the 47.5-point line. Houston’s O/U record is 1-4, with the under hitting in four straight games.
Houston Texans Stats
Heading into week 6, the Texans are 17th in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in passing yards per game with 272.4, on 38 attempts per game (3rd). C.J. Stroud threw for 331 yards (28/38) and a touchdown in week 5, following his 345-yard performance in week 4. Houston ranks 10th in 3rd-down conversions at 42.3% and 14th in red zone conversion percentage.
In the run game, the Texans average 104.2 yards per game, ranking 23rd in the league. Cam Akers led the team with 42 yards on 9 carries in week 5. Houston is 18th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 20.4.
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The Texans’ defense played well in their 23-20 win over the Bills, holding Buffalo to just 126 yards passing on 9 completions. Buffalo’s running game found more success, with 150 yards on 28 attempts, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. Houston’s defense limited the Bills to a 30% completion percentage and allowed just one touchdown.
Houston’s defense was strong on third downs, allowing Buffalo to convert just 21.4% of their third down attempts. They also managed to hit the quarterback three more times than the Bills, despite coming away with only one sack.
New England Patriots
Heading into week 6, the Patriots are looking to snap a four-game losing streak, which includes a 15-10 home loss to the Dolphins in week 5. New England was a 2-point underdog in that game but couldn’t cover the spread, dropping their ATS record to 1-3-1. They’ve been the underdog in all of their games so far this season. Our power rankings have the Patriots 31st this week, and we give them just a 2.1% chance of making the playoffs.
After their week 1 win over the Bengals, the Patriots have lost four straight, including a 21-point loss to the Jets in week 3 and a 17-point loss to the 49ers in week 4. New England is 0-2 at home and 1-2 on the road this season, with their only win coming in week 1. In division games, they are 0-2, and they rank 4th in the AFC East.
New England Patriots Stats
Heading into week 6, the Patriots rank 27th in our offensive power rankings. They are currently 29th in the NFL in both points per game (12.4) and total yards per game (250.8). New England ranks 21st in the league in passing attempts, with 28.6 per game, but they are 30th in passing yards, averaging 119.4 per game. On the ground, they are 14th in rushing attempts and 8th in rushing yards per game, with 131.4.
Jacoby Brissett threw for 160 yards in week 5, completing 18 of 34 passes. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing with 89 yards on 12 carries, while Demario Douglas had 6 receptions for 59 yards. The Patriots scored 10 points in week 5, with 7 coming in the first quarter. They converted 4 of 13 third-down attempts and failed to score on 2 red zone trips.
In the Patriots’ 15-10 loss to the Dolphins, the New England defense held Miami to just 179 passing yards, with a yards per attempt of 5.8. They also limited the Dolphins to an 18.2% conversion rate on third down. Despite this, the Patriots struggled to stop the run, allowing 193 rushing yards on 41 attempts.
New England’s defense did not give up any passing touchdowns and managed to intercept one pass. They also recorded three sacks and held Miami to 15 points. However, the Patriots’ offense put them on the field for 37:43 time of possession, and the Dolphins were able to take advantage of this and put together some successful drives.
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Texans are 1-4 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Texans are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Patriots have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Texans’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-1-1.
- The Patriots’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Texans vs. Patriots Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | -180 | -314 | -3.5 | -7 |
| Patriots | +150 | +254 | +3.5 | +7 |
4* Free Week 6 NFL Betting Prediction: Houston -7
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Texans to cover on the road in this week six matchup against the Pats. Right now, the point spread line is at -7 in favor of the Texans, and we have them winning 22-10.
For an over/under pick, we like taking the under, with a projected combined score of 32 points. The current O/U line is 37.5 points.
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