Free Week 3 Prediction: Packers vs Buccaneers NFL Odds
Looking for Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers free NFL Week 3 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Packers taking on the Buccaneers on Sunday, 9/25/2022 at the Raymond James Stadium . Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 3 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Green Bay Tampa Bay matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 3
(1-1) Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)
Date: Sunday, 9/25/2022
Time: 4:25 PM
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
NFL Week 3 ATS Betting Lines: Green Bay +1.5 (-105) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (-110)
NFL Week 3 Moneyline Odds: Green Bay +110 | Tampa Bay -125
NFL Week NFL Betting Total: O/U 42 (-110)
The Packers head down to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers Sunday afternoon. Aaron Rodgers vs Tom Brady (even though it’s Aaron Rodgers vs the Bucs defense and Tom Brady vs the Packers defense).
The Bucs open as short home favorites; sitting at -1.5 ATS and -125 on the ML. The over/under for this matchup is set at 42. Let’s dive into the numbers and try to find the correct angle!
Green Bay Packers
The Packers come into this game fresh off a 27-10 win at home vs the Bears on Sunday Night Football. The offense seemed a lot more in sync compared to week 1 when they got smacked in Minnesota. Aaron Rodgers was 19/25 with 234 passing yards and 2 touchdowns while also losing 1 fumble in the game. The real star of this game was Aaron Jones; rushing for 132 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. He also added 3 catches for 38 yards and a touchdown. The Packers really proved they want to be a run first team, giving Jones 15 carries and AJ Dillon 18 carries.
In this game, you could tell getting Elgton Jenkins back at Right Tackle for this game was massive. Aaron Rodgers looks more comfortable just knowing he has 1 of his 2 starting tackles back. We don’t know for sure, but reports are saying that David Bakhtiari could be back this week even though we have heard this same song and dance going back to middle of the season last year. This would be a very big addition back going up against the strong front seven of the Bucs.
The Packers rank 6th in offensive DVOA and 23rd in defensive DVOA, which gives them a team DVOA of 12th. This is backwards from what we would expect coming into this season; the Packers defense was the talk of this team. After last game, they rank 30th in rushing defense DVOA after getting gashed on the ground for 180 yards vs the Bears.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers won on Sunday, defeating the Saints 20-10 in New Orleans. Tom Brady was 18/34 with 190 yards and a touchdown through the air and Leonard Fournette added 65 yards on the ground. The massive thing coming out of this game was Mike Evans was ejected for pushing Marshon Lattimore to the ground and he will be suspended for Sundays game against the Packers.
The Buccaneers are very beat up coming into this game. Donovan Smith is questionable and back up Josh Wells was put on IR leaving a potential massive gap on the offensive line. Mike Evans will be out with suspension, Chris Godwin is questionable and probably won’t play and Julio Jones is also questionable. They also lost Akiem Hicks on the defensive line who is a massive part in stopping the run. Keep your eye on the injury report and watch for the line in this game to change depending on who Brady will have available on offense.
The Buccaneers rank 27th in offensive DVOA and 2nd in defensive DVOA, which gives them a team DVOA of 6th. They have been 1st in passing defense DVOA and 15th in rushing defense DVOA, which will be imported with the Packers strong one, two punch in the backfield.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games in Week 3.
- Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
- Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Buccaneers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 3.
- Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 games in Week 3.
- Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
- Under is 8-2 in Buccaneers last 10 vs. NFC.
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Tampa Bay.
- Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Tampa Bay.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
4* Free Week 3 NFL Betting Prediction: Under 42
This is a tough game to pick not knowing what players are going to be playing on the offensive side for the Bucs. Both these defenses are strong and the offenses could struggle in this game. I’m going to take the under of 42 for this reason. Scotty Miller could be WR1 for Brady, and the Packers are still trying to figure out their identity on offense.
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